论我国量刑程序模式的选择

量刑程序与定罪程序一样是刑事审判环节,具有独立性与依附性特征,而我国立法层面的量刑程序几乎是空白。我国在现有的司法环境下实行相对独立的量刑程序符合国际司法潮流,这一程序也没有增加各诉讼参加人的负担,较易操作落实,且有相关的配套程序和实践基础,因此具有可行性。但在实践中应注意一些问题,如要清晰控辩审三方在量刑程序中的定位,使社会调查报告机制走向制度化、专业化,判决书中应对量刑的依据和理由进行阐述等。     

Testing for linearity in generalized linear models using kernel smoothing

A test statistic proposed by Li (1999) for testing the adequacy of heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models using nonparametric kernel smoothers is applied to testing for linearity in generalized linear models. Simulation results for models with centered gamma and inverse Gaussian errors are presented to illustrate the performance of the resulting test compared with log-likelihood ratio tests for specific parametric alternatives. The test is applied to a data set of coronary heart disease status (Hosmer and Lemeshow, (1990).     

当代女性择偶标准及其影响因素研究--基于365则女性征婚启事的内容分析

对2005年至2014年间刊登于五本杂志上的365则女性征婚启事进行内容分析和统计检验，发现在女性征婚者的自我陈述和择偶要求中，既有较为稳定的传统标准，也存在一些时代变化。女性自身的职业和文化程度提及率较高，择偶标准中道德品质和个性、个人素质等受到了更多关注。在社会资源方面，隐性的资源更被强调，择偶标准呈现多元化取向。在更年轻和文化程度更高的女性中，体现出了更具现代性的择偶标准。有婚史和有孩子的女性则更多地关注一些现实性的标准。     

Multinomial Selection in the Presence of Infinite Alternatives

We propose a new procedure for the multinomial selection problem to solve a real problem of any modern Air Force: the elaboration of better air-to-air tactics for Beyond Visual Range air-to-air combat that maximize its aircraft survival probability H(θ, ω), as well as enemy aircraft downing probability G(θ, ω). In this study, using a low-resolution simulator with generic parameters for the aircraft and missiles, we could increase an average success rate of 16.69% and 16.23% for H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω), respectively, to an average success rate of 76.85% and 79.30%. We can assure with low probability of being wrong that the selected tactic has greater probability of yielding greater success rates in both H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω) than any simulated tactic.     

A New Feature Selection Method for Text Categorization of Customer Reviews

With the rapid development of e-commerce, online consumer review plays an increasingly important role in consumers’ purchase decisions. Most research papers use the quantitative measures of consumer reviews for statistical analysis. Here we focus on analyzing the texts of customer reviews with text mining tools. We propose a new feature selection method called maximizing the difference. Various classification methods such as boosting, random forest and SVM are used to test the performance of the new method along with different evaluation criteria. Both simulation and empirical results show that it improves the effectiveness of the classifier over the existing methods.     

A Semiparametric Regression Model for Longitudinal Data with Non‐stationary Errors

Motivated by the need to analyze the National Longitudinal Surveys data, we propose a new semiparametric longitudinal mean‐covariance model in which the effects on dependent variable of some explanatory variables are linear and others are non‐linear, while the within‐subject correlations are modelled by a non‐stationary autoregressive error structure. We develop an estimation machinery based on least squares technique by approximating non‐parametric functions via B‐spline expansions and establish the asymptotic normality of parametric estimators as well as the rate of convergence for the non‐parametric estimators. We further advocate a new model selection strategy in the varying‐coefficient model framework, for distinguishing whether a component is significant and subsequently whether it is linear or non‐linear. Besides, the proposed method can also be employed for identifying the true order of lagged terms consistently. Monte Carlo studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of our approach, and an application of real data is also illustrated.     

Bivariate versus univariate ordinal categorical data with reference to an ophthalmologic study

The Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy is a population-based epidemiological study carried out in Southern Wisconsin during the 1980s. The resulting data were analysed by different statisticians and ophthalmologists during the last two decades. Most of the analyses were carried out on the baseline data, although there were two follow-up studies on the same population. A Bayesian analysis of the first follow-up data, taken four years after the baseline study, was carried out by Angers and Biswas [Angers, J.-F. and Biswas, A., 2004, A Bayesian analysis of the four-year follow-up data of theWisconsin epidemiologic study of diabetic retinopathy. Statistics in Medicine, 23, 601–615.], where the choice of the best model in terms of the covariate inclusion is done, and estimates of the associated covariate effects were obtained using the baseline data to set the prior for the parameters. In the present article we consider an univariate transformation of the bivariate ordinal data, and a parallel analysis with the much simpler univariate data is carried out. The results are then compared with the results of Angers and Biswas (2004). In conclusion, our analyses suggest that the univariate analysis fails to detect features of the data found by the bivariate analysis. Even an univariate transformation of our data with quite high correlation with both left and right eyes is inadequate.     

A three-stage variable selection method for supersaturated designs

A supersaturated design (SSD) is a design whose run size is not enough for estimating all main effects. Such a design is commonly used in screening experiments to screen active effects based on the effect sparsity principle. Traditional approaches, such as the ordinary stepwise regression and the best subset variable selection, may not be appropriate in this situation. In this article, a new variable selection method is proposed based on the idea of staged dimensionality reduction. Simulations and several real data studies indicate that the newly proposed method is more effective than the existing data analysis methods.     

论坚持“以德为先”选用干部

我们党选用干部标准的思想经历了从毛泽东提出的＂德才兼备＂到胡锦涛明确提出的＂德才兼备、以德为先＂的历史的、理论的发展演变过程。从宏观上和战略上看,坚持＂以德为先＂选用干部,在理论层面和现实需求层面上都具有重大的价值意义。要使＂以德为先＂用人标准不致于流于形式,就必须健全完善与时俱进的党员干部＂德＂之衡量标准。     

An economic model for the quality selection problem

The object of an economic model for the quality selection problem is to select the best parameter value for an input quality characteristic (X) so that the quality loss incurred on an output quality characteristic (Y) is minimized. The relation function between Y and X is assumed to be known throughout the article. In the work of Taguchi's experimentations, the selection of best parameter values is solved by two-step optimization when Y is adjustable. In the article, it is further extended to the case where Y is non-adjustable. An economic quality selection model with a general relation function is proposed based on a Taylor-series method for both adjustable and non-adjustable cases. A special case of a quality selection model with a quadratic relation function is also studied. A circuit example provided by Taguchi is presented to illustrate the use of this model.