新时期中国共产党的社会整合方略——以利益为基础的制度整合

中国共产党的执政地位是通过对社会进行有效整合来实现的。在转型时期,随着社会自主性的萌发,产生了以个体或群体利益为主要内容的利益诉求。利益的多元化、单位制的式微、西方政党制度的影响、明显的贫富差距、对渐进式改革的疑问以及政府俘获的出现使中国共产党在新时期的社会整合中面临巨大挑战。执政的中国共产党应根据社会的变化,在意识形态、政党网络、政党制度、执政能力、政治体制与反腐倡廉等方面增强制度供给,实现以利益为基础的制度整合。     

农地制度变迁的机理与合约分析：生产队制和家庭联产承包责任制

家庭联产承包责任制在农业生产上的高能激励自农地制度变革以来一直被学界所推崇,但这并不意味着生产队制的低效率。为此,在否定以生产队制低效率作为农地制度变迁的解释的基础上,从发展战略转换、制度安排缺陷、农民信念及其他方面尝试性地探讨了推动生产队制向家庭联产承包责任制变迁的内在原因,并且从生产责任制形式、土地分配方式、期限结构等方面详细阐述了家庭联产承包责任制向农业产出最大化演化的过程。相应地,伴随着农地制度变迁而来的是签约主体以及合约结构的变动,因此,从合约的角度进一步研究了生产队制与家庭联产承包责任制在合约实施和劳动监督与计量上的差别,以及作为二者共同之处的合约模糊性特征,并在此基础上对家庭联产承包责任制下税费合约的性质与形式进行了具体的分析。     

统购统销制度运行发展过程的逻辑考查

统购统销是我国计划经济时期物资短缺造就的制度产物,是国家主导社会资源配置的强制性制度变迁结果.为了使制度有效运行发展,国家在农产品资源社会生产总过程中实行“定产、定购、定交、定消和定销”政策,当制度执行偏差影响到民众生产生活时,他们便会通过自主行为来表达自身利益诉求和对国家政策的不满.随着社会生产力发展,统购统销制度的弊端日益凸显,严重束缚了社会经济的发展,最终被市场经济制度所取代.     

大陆架划界对南极条约体系的挑战

1982年《联合国海洋公约》(以下简称《公约》)建立了大陆架制度,要求沿海国应在批准《公约》生效十年内完成200海里以外大陆架外部界限的划定。目前,澳大利亚、挪威、阿根廷和英国等国在提交各国大陆架划界案时,先后对南纬60°以南地区的外大陆架提出了主张要求。自《南极条约》1961年生效以来,南极地区(即60°S以南地区)一直处于以《南极条约》为核心的南极条约体系的约束之下。南极条约体系是一个涉及国际南极事务众多方面的系统,对于维护南极地区的和平稳定做出了巨大贡献。通过解读南极洲领土主张七国提交的大陆架划界案和有关大陆架外部界限的初步信息,跟踪研究大陆架界限委员会审议的有关南极地区的划界案案例,分析了沿海国在南极地区的大陆架划界主张对南极条约体系法律地位产生的重大影响和挑战。     

"扬雄三进制"研讨

通过对"扬雄三进制"由来的揭示,继而论证了各数难以确认的原因;然后提出了确认各数的公式以及三进制的拓展,三进制与十进制的换算及优越性;简介了三进制加、减、乘、除的运算法.     

浅析政府信息公开制度

政府信息公开是指政府部门通过多种方式公开其政务活动,公开有利于民众实现其权利的信息资源。我国在政府信息公开制度运行的特点是自上而下型的,其缺陷主要表现为民间推动不足。由于民间推动依赖于政府的推动,所以,政府加大民主法治环境建设的力度,是加速我国政府信息公开制度建设进程的关键。     

Comparing two survey methods for estimating maternal and perinatal mortality in rural Cambodia

PURPOSE: We need solid estimates of maternal mortality rates (MMR) to monitor the impact of maternal care programs. Cambodian health authorities and WHO report the MMR in Cambodia at 450 per 100,000 live births. The figure is drawn from surveys where information is obtained by interviewing respondents about the survival of all their adult sisters (sisterhood method). The estimate is statistically imprecise, 95% confidence intervals ranging from 260 to 620/100,000. The MMR estimate is also uncertain due to under-reporting; where 80-90% of women deliver at home maternal fatalities may go undetected especially where mortality is highest, in remote rural areas. The aim of this study was to attain more reliable MMR estimates by using survey methods other than the sisterhood method prior to an intervention targeting obstetric rural emergencies. PROCEDURES: The study was carried out in rural Northwestern Cambodia where access to health services is poor and poverty, endemic diseases, and land mines are endemic. Two survey methods were applied in two separate sectors: a community-based survey gathering data from public sources and a household survey gathering data direct from primary sources. FINDINGS: There was no statistically significant difference between the two survey results for maternal deaths, both types of survey reported mortality rates around the public figure. The household survey reported a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate as compared to the community-based survey, 8.6% versus 5.0%. Also the household survey gave qualitative data important for a better understanding of the many problems faced by mothers giving birth in the remote villages. There are detection failures in both surveys; the failure rate may be as high as 30-40%. PRINCIPLE CONCLUSION: Both survey methods are inaccurate, therefore inappropriate for evaluation of short-term changes of mortality rates. Surveys based on primary informants yield qualitative information about mothers' hardships important for the design of future maternal care interventions.     

论长波框架中的世界经济走势

在世界经济增长和发展的过程中 ,存在着四种相互包容、相互叠加的经济周期。 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,世界经济进入了第五个长波上升期 ,其突出表现是新经济带来的快速增长 ,其动力是作为技术创新和制度创新的信息化和经济全球化。在这次长波上升期中 ,世界经济表现出均等化和两极分化两种趋势 ,从而改变着世界经济格局。在长波上升期中 ,如果没有外生的重大随机冲击 ,短周期和主周期一般来说会出现波动相对弱化现象。     

从族谱编纂看满族的民族认同

族谱是民间最常见的传世文献 ,具有追根寻祖、辨别亲疏、敬宗收族等作用。本文指出 ,族谱在民族识别和民族认同方面具有不容低估的现实意义。这里 ,重要的不仅在于甄别史实的真伪 ,而且还在于理解特定社会氛围中族人对于族谱的策略性利用。本文以满族族谱为主要对象 ,将实地调查与文本分析相结合 ,尝试对族谱在民族认同中的功能进行个案研究。     

Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys

Permanent and widespread psychological biases affect both the subjective probability of future economic events and their retrospective interpretation. They may give rise to a systematic gap between (over-critical) judgments and (over-optimistic) expectations – the “forecast” error. When things go bad, then, psychology suggests that people tend to become particularly bullish, amplifying the forecast error. Also, psychology argues that personal/future conditions are systematically perceived to be better than the aggregate/past ones. All this sharply contrasts with standard economic assumptions. Evidence from a unique dataset covering 10 European countries over 22 years confirms the presence of structural psychologically driven distortions in people’s judgments and expectations formation.