Methods for Assessing Uncertainty in Fundamental Assumptions and Associated Models for Cancer Risk Assessment

The distributional approach for uncertainty analysis in cancer risk assessment is reviewed and extended. The method considers a combination of bioassay study results, targeted experiments, and expert judgment regarding biological mechanisms to predict a probability distribution for uncertain cancer risks. Probabilities are assigned to alternative model components, including the determination of human carcinogenicity, mode of action, the dosimetry measure for exposure, the mathematical form of the dose‐response relationship, the experimental data set(s) used to fit the relationship, and the formula used for interspecies extrapolation. Alternative software platforms for implementing the method are considered, including Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) that facilitate assignment of prior probabilities, specification of relationships among model components, and identification of all output nodes on the probability tree. The method is demonstrated using the application of Evans, Sielken, and co‐workers for predicting cancer risk from formaldehyde inhalation exposure. Uncertainty distributions are derived for maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) and 95th percentile upper confidence limit (UCL) unit cancer risk estimates, and the effects of resolving selected model uncertainties on these distributions are demonstrated, considering both perfect and partial information for these model components. A method for synthesizing the results of multiple mechanistic studies is introduced, considering the assessed sensitivities and selectivities of the studies for their targeted effects. A highly simplified example is presented illustrating assessment of genotoxicity based on studies of DNA damage response caused by naphthalene and its metabolites. The approach can provide a formal mechanism for synthesizing multiple sources of information using a transparent and replicable weight‐of‐evidence procedure.     

Collecting social contact data in the context of disease transmission: Prospective and retrospective study designs

Patterns of direct contacts between people ultimately determine the transmission rate for airborne pathogens like influenza; therefore, data regarding contact behaviour are essential for designing infectious disease control. In order to collect reliable data about social contacts, decisions about the survey methodology have to be made. A series of relevant surveys was conducted in 2003–2006 among university students in Bielefeld, Germany. Each survey focussed on specific methodological questions related to the number of contacts encountered during 1 day. In this study, we report on the analysis of different survey designs.     

甲骨文中作物产量构成公式三因素的判定

通过植物形态学与作物遗传学的研究与文献资料的相互印证,认定早在4000多年前的甲骨文中中华民族已认识到只在近代才建立的作物产量构成公式全部三因素即株数、粒数和粒重的关系,并用12个不同的甲骨文造型表示。     

教育实习成绩评定的数学模型及信息系统

本文用模糊数学的方法，建立一个评定学生教育实习成绩的多因素，多层次的综合数学模型。结合本学院学生实习中使用的《实习生调查评议表》，给出实习生成绩的数量化评分方法，且利用计算机实现学生教育实习成绩评定系统。     

Understanding online social support and its antecedents: A socio-cognitive model

Little attention has been paid in previous literature to understanding the factors that drive online social support from a perspective of social psychology. This study validates a research model that examines the above issue. In the setting of information technology, this study postulates self-efficacy and online support expectancy as the key drivers of information technology usage, whereas information technology usage and referent network size jointly influence online social support. This study contributes to the social science literature by extending information technology usage models to the area of rarely explored online social support and by presenting an operationalization of referent network size in the area.     

2008年高校人文社科学报研究综述

与时俱进，改革发展，学报编辑工作不断取得新的进步，相关的理论研究也在垦拓中深化，在探索中创新。2008年的高校人文社科学报研究，论题主要集中在六个方面：学报编辑业务；学报办刊特色；学报编辑主体；学报改革与发展；学报编辑出版网络化；学报的责任担当。     

林业上市公司投资价值实证分析

通过已披露的财务数据选取影响投资价值的指标,经过标准化处理,构造相关系数矩阵,利用主成分分析法,构造主成分,试图确定主成分与投资价值的相关性,再根据各个指标值的变异度,利用熵权系数法,计算各指标的权重,为投资者综合评价各林业上市公司的投资价值提供相应的依据。根据分析,得出吉林森工投资价值最大,景谷林业次之,永安林业最小的结论。     

酸洗除锈过程铁的氯化物影响作用的研究

采用电位跟踪法和失重法研究带锈铁片的酸洗除锈过程，对铁的氯化物参与酸洗过程时，Fe^3 ，Fe^2 以及Cl^-对除锈效果的影响得到一些有规律的结果。     

基于改进灰色定权的区域造船能力比较研究

造船工业作为一些区域经济发展的支柱，其合理发展能够对地方经济起到积极的带动作用。通过对区域造船能力内涵和现状的分析，运用改进的灰色定权方法，对中国区域造船集聚区的造船生产和发展情况进行了聚类评估，并据此提出了相关建议。     

可积最高权模的Schubert子模

论述了可积最高权模的Ｓｃｈｕｂｅｒｔ子模的结构性质，证明了可积最高权模可以表示成有全序关系的Ｓｃｈｕｂｅｒｔ子模的并集．