对基础研究投入问题的思考

文章首先从公共财政的角度对基础研究的投入进行分析,其次从布什和斯托克斯的科研模式角度对基础研究的投入进行分析。在此基础上对加大我国基础研究的投入提出了相关建议。     

Local influence in multilevel models

The authors study the local influence of observations in multilevel regression models. To this end, they perturb simultaneously the variances, responses and design matrix. To measure the local change caused by these perturbations, they use generalized Cook statistics for the fixed and random parameter estimates. Closed form local influence measures also allow them to assess the joint influence of various observations. They suggest a simple computation method and illustrate their results using two examples.     

BURR CRITICAL VALUE APPROXIMATIONS FOR TESTS OF AUTOCORRELATION AND HETEROSCEDASTICITY

The paper evaluates the accuracy of Burr approximations of critical values and p-values for test a of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in the linear regression model.     

Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system

We present and justify a propagation algorithm to facilitate the simultaneous calculation, for every node in a probabilistic exper system of the distribution of the associated random quantity, conditional on all the evidence obtained about the remaining nodes.     

关于线性互补问题的迭代算法

建立了一类求解线性互补问题的迭代算法。在一定条件下,研究了保证原问题的解存在唯一的充分条件,并且证明了新算法的收敛性。     

具有反馈控制的Logistic扩散系统周期解的存在与稳定

利用上下解，Ｂｒｏｕｗｅｒ不动点原理及Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ泛函方法，讨论了一类具有反馈控制的Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ扩散系统的周期解问题；获得了周期解存在且稳定的判别条件．     

线性矩阵不等式问题的进化计算解决方法

针对决定模糊控制中稳定性的线性矩阵不等式问题,提出了用进化计算来解决模糊控制中线性矩阵不等式的新算法。实验证明,该算法解“用于实现模糊控制的增益调度和稳定性的线性矩阵不等式”是有效的。     

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

Firm-level training in local economic systems: Complementarities in production and firm innovation strategies

The paper presents a conceptual review over the main aspects concerning the role of human capital investments and training activities within production processes, followed by empirical evidence on two local economic systems in Northern Italy, based on recent survey data. Theoretical and empirical considerations are brought together in order to provide new insights on the role of training and the factors associated to training activities at firm level.The potential driving factors of training here analysed compounds structural characteristics, labour demand dynamics, human resource management practices, workforce features, and firm performances. We observe that training activities emerge positively associated with high-performance practices, innovative labour demand features, workforce skill level, firm size, and are affected by labour flexibility in various directions. Empirical evidence confirms most previous results but also adds further important insights. The analysis suggests that a widening gap, between few innovatively evolving and many stagnant firms, could characterise the future dynamics of the Region. The high relevance of structural variables, labour demand factors and HRM/innovation practices shows that regional industrial policies and labour policies should be jointly implemented for increasing potential firm productivity. This is a key concern for the current debate on local systems economic development in the European and Italian environment.     

Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

Summary.  We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment.