中国居民代际收入流动性的变化趋势及影响机制研究

基于1989~2015年共计10轮CHNS数据,本文采用代际收入弹性和代际收入秩关联系数双重测度指标对我国居民代际收入流动性进行了测算,发现代际收入流动性在1991~2004年期间基本保持稳定,2004年以后呈现出不断上升的变化趋势。基于收入分组视角的研究发现,各收入组2004年以后代际收入阶层固化程度均有所降低,但高收入组和低收入组的固化程度远高于其他各组,中等收入群体是目前我国保持较高代际收入流动性的主要动力来源。从城乡差异视角看,受大规模农村劳动力向城镇流动的影响,2000年后农村家庭的代际流动性显著提升,且持续高于城市居民的代际流动性。进一步,基于人力资本分析框架对我国代际收入传递机制进行了探究,发现父亲的非教育因素在代际收入传递中起到主导作用。受整体社会制度环境不断改善的积极影响,2004年以后非教育传递机制不断减弱,对代际收入流动性的提升起到较大助推作用;而受高等教育扩张政策的影响,教育因素在2004年左右一定程度上削弱了代际收入流动性。     

A Note on the Large Sample Properties of Estimators Based on Generalized Linear Models for Correlated Pseudo‐observations

Pseudo‐values have proven very useful in censored data analysis in complex settings such as multi‐state models. It was originally suggested by Andersen et al., Biometrika, 90, 2003, 335 who also suggested to estimate standard errors using classical generalized estimating equation results. These results were studied more formally in Graw et al., Lifetime Data Anal., 15, 2009, 241 that derived some key results based on a second‐order von Mises expansion. However, results concerning large sample properties of estimates based on regression models for pseudo‐values still seem unclear. In this paper, we study these large sample properties in the simple setting of survival probabilities and show that the estimating function can be written as a U‐statistic of second order giving rise to an additional term that does not vanish asymptotically. We further show that previously advocated standard error estimates will typically be too large, although in many practical applications the difference will be of minor importance. We show how to estimate correctly the variability of the estimator. This is further studied in some simulation studies.     

女性欲望的分裂与张扬--对张爱玲《心经》中女性形象的再认识

旨在探讨《心经》中独特的女性形象以及张爱玲写此文的深层原因。生活在父权制社会下,男性凝望世界中的女性,渴望直接与男性对话,从而产生异样感情,特殊的母女关系经历了分裂到张扬再到重组的过程,表现出女性在与男性相抗衡的过程中的绝望与疯狂,也隐含作者内心深处的希望。     

On Bartlett correction of empirical likelihood for regularly spaced spatial data

Bartlett correction constitutes one of the attractive features of empirical likelihood because it enables the construction of confidence regions for parameters with improved coverage probabilities. We study the Bartlett correction of spatial frequency domain empirical likelihood (SFDEL) based on general spectral estimating functions for regularly spaced spatial data. This general formulation can be applied to testing and estimation problems in spatial analysis, for example testing covariance isotropy, testing covariance separability as well as estimating the parameters of spatial covariance models. We show that the SFDEL is Bartlett correctable. In particular, the improvement in coverage accuracies of the Bartlett‐corrected confidence regions depends on the underlying spatial structures. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 455–472; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

A semiparametric approach for modelling multivariate nonlinear time series

In this article, a semiparametric time‐varying nonlinear vector autoregressive (NVAR) model is proposed to model nonlinear vector time series data. We consider a combination of parametric and nonparametric estimation approaches to estimate the NVAR function for both independent and dependent errors. We use the multivariate Taylor series expansion of the link function up to the second order which has a parametric framework as a representation of the nonlinear vector regression function. After the unknown parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure, the obtained NVAR function is adjusted by a nonparametric diagonal matrix, where the proposed adjusted matrix is estimated by the nonparametric kernel estimator. The asymptotic consistency properties of the proposed estimators are established. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed semiparametric method. A real data example on short‐run interest rates and long‐run interest rates of United States Treasury securities is analyzed to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 668–687; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

影响企业扩张度的因素及其熵描述

通过对影响企业扩张度因素的分析以及熵思想下企业扩张度的重新界定,指出企业扩张必须遵循的原则就是,扩张必须基于自身核心竞争能力等内部基本元素的强弱与外部环境来确定其扩张的规模、速度以及经济范围,以便达到内部熵能最小和持续发展的目的。     

略论闽语研究的“西进”

闽语通行地域跨越多个省份及海外华人社区,人口大约不会少于7000万人。闽语研究历史悠久,成果丰硕。研究面日益扩大,研究内容日益深化。然而,以往的闽语研究,仍存在着研究布局不够平衡的问题。研究的范围多集中在闽南、闽东这两支上,以福建的厦、漳、泉闽南话及粤东属闽南方言系统的潮汕话,和以福州话为代表的闽东闽语成果较为可观。而相对忽略了对边远的、分散的闽语方言点的调查。为此,文章认为闽语研究应尽可能扩大调查的覆盖面,提出多把眼光射向那些分布在闽语大本营闽、台以西的海南岛、粤西南以及广西境内的闽语通行地区,是为“西进”。     

专业化交易组织成长与区域经济发展--再论农村市场经济发展的"义乌模式"

义乌区域经济发展的动因不是工业化,而是市场化;商人的集体行动与政府的开明决策,使义乌成为全国最大的小商品流通中心;"义乌模式"的优势,在于交易方式的专业化,小商品市场的专业化交易形成了信息规模经济、外部规模经济和范围经济,从而确立了义乌小商品的低成本优势;尔后,市场秩序扩展、专业化交换组织成长与产业集聚发展的良性互动,形成了义乌独特的工业化、城市化路径.     

中外网络环境下著作权限制制度的比较及启示

网络技术的应用带来了著作权人权利范围的扩张,从而破坏了权利人与公众之间的利益平衡,激化了权利人与使用者的矛盾。目前,我国还没有关于网络环境下著作权权利限制方面的明确立法,而网络环境下著作权的纠纷却层出不穷,给司法实践中的具体操作带来了困难。通过对国外相关的立法经验和国际条约的规定进行分析和比较,可得出有益的启示,应从权能限制即合理使用和法定许可这两个方面来构建我国网络环境下著作权的权利限制。     

高校扩招政策的成本-收益分析

建立在经济人假设基础上的成本-收益分析方法对我国高校扩招政策有很强的解释力。高校扩招政策的实施引起了不少社会问题,政府扩大内需、缓解就业压力与推进科教兴国战略的预期收益并没有很好地实现,而且付出了教育质量下降、教育有失公平、教育“返贫”等巨大成本。从价值判断的角度来说,政府的收益是小于成本的。相对于公共部门的个人消费者来说,由于高校扩招带来的就业风险增大,作为经济人的个人在选择教育消费的时候,应该有成本与收益核算的意识,理性地选择消费。就高等教育的发展而言,政府应该更多地关注教育质量的提高,高等教育的大众化也应该与社会发展水平相适应,真正实现本质上的大众化。