A behavioral model of the demand for consumer durables

It is argued that models of the demand for consumer durables would be strengthened by the introduction of a behavioral element reflecting the nature of the decision making process within the individual household. A possible behavioural model is described. It is suggested that this would consist of the following elements: general economic confidence of the consumer (derived from personal expectations and attitudes to the general economic situation): general durable purchasing orientation (including willingness to devote resources to durable purchasesand house moving expectations); specific product choice considerations (including orders of acquisition of new durables: the implicit depreciation of existing equipment; perceptions of the characteristics of new products; purchase expectations). Such a model is more extensive than that normally described by others working in this field. The interaction between the different variables is discussed. It is shown that all these elements can be estimated through regular surveys and so the model can be made operational for forecasting purposes. However, it needs to be recognised that there are also unexpected even as which will affect the outcome in individual circumstances and the nature of these is also considered.     

Performance measurement: Some conceptual issues

Measures of how well a system is operating are clearly of interest to a wide range of users, from organizational researchers to system managers. The current literatures in such areas as “performance measurement, ” “organizational effectiveness, ” and the like show little consistency in their definitions of terms or in their methods for generating measures. The present paper attempts a clarification of these issues in the form of a conceptual minimalist position which requires only three basic definitions, and leaves, as far as possible, all remaining issues open to empirical investigation.We first review the literature on “organizational effectiveness” contrasting the organizational goals and systems paradigms, and note the lack of either theoretical or empirical convergence between the two. An examination of the nature of effectiveness statements suggests that this failure of convergence flows mainly from the different criterion sets generated by the two paradigms — and, importantly, that one should not expect convergence on a single measure or set of measures which uniquely define how well a system is performing. One's view of how well a given system is performing is a function of where one stands (either theoretically or in relationship to the system), and pursuit of the one true set of performance measures is a futile exercise. Instead, we propose to redirect attention to the identification of the various individuals and groups (“constituencies”) with an interest in system performance, and to the investigation of those items of system relevant information (their “performance measure sets”) which do, in fact, change their evaluations of how well the system is performing. This perspective will, we hope, redirect effort from futile theoretical debate to empirical investigations of what measures are used, by whom, and to what effect, in specific settings.     

What's really new about policy modeling? An assessment on the basis of the U.S. federal government experience

This article is an attempt to look at where policy modeling is today in reality as opposed to where it is often perceived to be by those who are its proponents. To do this, an impressionistic survey is made of the state of the art, looking at such factors as model theory, structure, data, validation, and uses. Finally, some effort is made to take the results of this examination and use the conclusions reached to suggest what the future of policy modeling might be and what yet unexplored avenues remain to the model builders and users.     

主导企业适应突破性技术变革的整合研究

突破性技术变革的频率正在不断加快,而主导企业在技术范式的转换过程中却经常遭遇绩效下滑甚至被新进入企业所替代.本研究认为,主导企业能否适应技术变革取决于三个因素的平衡和交互作用:技术投资、技术能力以及互补性资产,在考察技术变革所带来的竞争含义时强调综合考虑多个视角的重要性.此外,作者根据这些因素提供了三种应对机制:利用实物期权方法进行技术投资、利用自主事业单位开发新技术,以及利用互补性资产与突破性技术发起企业建立战略联盟.     

《国际性教育技术指导纲要》（修订版）解读与启示

我国性教育工作处于探索阶段,借鉴国际社会对性教育的指导有利于促进我国性教育的发展。联合国教科文组织2018年1月发布的《国际性教育技术指导纲要》（修订版）将“全面的性教育”作为性教育的一般原理,提供了一套符合儿童及青少年身心发展的学习主题及其目标,并为教育系统的从业人员提供了实施“全面的性教育”的相关建议。在该纲要的指导下,我国应注重性教育的全面性及有效性,多方主体共同努力,开发并设计出符合本土文化规范及社会道德的性教育课程,以促进儿童及青少年的身心健康发展。     

论党的三代领导核心科技思想的继承与发展关系

自20世纪20年代以来,尤其是建国50多年来,我们党的三代领导核心在领导我国社会主义现代化建设的伟大实践中,形成了各具特色的科技思想,丰富和发展了马克思主义的科技理论。本文通过系统、全面地对比他们的科技思想,旨在总结出三代领导人之科技思想的继承与发展关系。     

技术资本在高新技术企业价值增值中的作用探析

高新技术的重要作用使得人们把高新技术作为资本投入经济活动之中。技术资本对高新技术企业价值增值的作用是全方位的,它通过经济学中的资本形成过程来实现对企业的价值增值。技术资本促使高新技术企业的价值增值有常规增长、超常规增长和持续增长三种模式。     

世界农业发展新特点与提高我国农业国际竞争力

20世纪80年代以来,世界农业生产稳步增长并呈现出新的特点和发展趋势。把我国农业放到世界农业发展体系中加以考察可以发现,我国农业无论是从狭义国际竞争力还是从广义国际竞争力来看,与发达国家都相距甚远。提高我国农业国际竞争力的基本对策是:把农业科技创新放在首位;积极推进农业产业组织结构创新;以比较优势原则调整农业经济结构;加大对农业的投资和保护力度。     

论艺术与科技的互动

艺术与科技有着天然的渊源关系,二者相互影响,相互促进,艺术给科学家的思想插上翅膀,科技推动着艺术的创造并使其产生革命性的变化,艺术发展的历史,透视着科技发展的轨迹。网络科技的发展,拓展了艺术发展的空间,艺术观众与艺术创造者形成了新的互动关系。在未来社会的发展中,艺术与科技的互动联姻,将使二者都获得无限的生命力。     

Cooperation between politicians and econometricians and the search for optimal economic policy

The problem of formalizing the cooperation between politicians and econometricians as an iterative—or trial and error—process, such that the weights in a preference function can be obtained in a finite number of steps, is considered. The approach is based on the pioneering suggestions made by Tinbergen and Frisch within the framework of a formal theory of economic policy. Using the implicit information given by a possible and implementable dialogue between a policy maker and a model builder it is shown that it is possible to take into account explicitly the interdependence between targets, instruments, and weights.