科技指标预测方法研究--以广州市R&D经费投入预测为例

随着我国科技创新步伐的日益加快,不论是科技管理者还是研究者,都希望尽快获得能够监测、评价或制定科技计划与政策的关键指标的预测信息。本文以广州市R&D经费投入为例,研究科技指标的预测方法,建立了广州市R&D经费内部支出的年度增长率预测模型、时间序列法预测模型、相关关系法预测模型、分执行部门预测模型,以及以上预测模型的组合预测模型。根据两个年度的预测结果显示,本文的方法具有可行性和推广价值。     

Economic Manufacturing Quantity and Its Integrating Implications

Several contradictions are noted among the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ), Just‐In‐Time (JIT), and Optimized Production Technology (OPT) approaches and the economic framework for profit maximization. A fundamental model referred to as the Economic Manufacturing Quantity (EMO) is developed and examined for its integrating implications for the three approaches. An implication for the classic EOQ approach is that the balance between setup and inventory carrying costs is valid when a production facility is operating at or below a certain critical level but not when operating above that level. An implication for the JIT approach is that one must reduce setup cost at non‐bottlenecks and setup time at bottlenecks to reduce inventory. An implication for the OPT approach is that trade‐offs between setup and inventory carrying costs may indeed be ignored while determining process batch sizes, provided each facility in a production system is operating at or above Its critical level. Economic theoretic analysis of the EMO model provides a basis for unification of JIT which advocates stability in operating level as a key to improved productivity and quality, and OPT that advocates maximizing operating level with resultant emphasis on bottlenecks as a key to increased profits. This unifying basis states that a profit‐maximizing production facility or system will operate at the full and stable level as long as market demand remains relatively sensitive to price and operating at the full (maximum) level provides positive unit contribution.     

对发展高校科技企业的几点思考

本文对发展高校科技企业的思考包括:一是坚持校企分开原则是高校科技企业发展的前提,二是加强骨干队伍建设是高校科技企业发展的关键,三是建立产权激励机制是高校科技企业发展的核心,四是努力进行技术创新是高校科技企业发展的根本。     

Marketing Is from Mars,IT Is from Venus: Aligning the Worldviews for Firm Performance

A typical firm is operated by multiple functional managers who may collaborate as well as compete to achieve firm performance. In the digital age, firm performance is essentially customer‐dependent and technology‐dependent, with both marketing and information technology (IT) playing key roles. Unfortunately the two functions often have very different worldviews. We show how these differences can damage firm performance, and suggest ways to mitigate this damage. We build a worldview difference model, synthesized from multiple disciplines. The model is tested using both matched and nonmatched observations from marketing and IT managers, and is analyzed with hierarchical linear models using both perceptual and objective firm performance data over a 4‐year period. We find that differences between the beliefs and perceptions of marketing managers and IT managers generate a negative impact on firm performance, and suggest appropriate technology‐culture associations to effectively align their worldviews for firm performance. To improve firm performance, a cross‐functional appreciation for market and technology drivers can be achieved by making marketing managers more learning‐oriented and by providing IT managers a culture that is congruent with technology.     

Information Technology Acceptance by Individual Professionals: A Model Comparison Approach*

The proliferation of innovative and exciting information technology applications that target individual “professionals” has made the examination or re‐examination of existing technology acceptance theories and models in a “professional” setting increasingly important. The current research represents a conceptual replication of several previous model comparison studies. The particular models under investigation are the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), and a decomposed TPB model, potentially adequate in the targeted healthcare professional setting. These models are empirically examined and compared, using the responses to a survey on telemedicine technology acceptance collected from more than 400 physicians practicing in public tertiary hospitals in Hong Kong. Results of the study highlight several plausible limitations of TAM and TPB in explaining or predicting technology acceptance by individual professionals. In addition, findings from the study also suggest that instruments that have been developed and repeatedly tested in previous studies involving end users and business managers in ordinary business settings may not be equally valid in a professional setting. Several implications for technology acceptance/adoption research and technology management practices are discussed.     

技术群体成员变动、知识流耦合与产业创新网络抗毁性:技术异质性的调节作用

开放式创新盛行的背景下,如何提升产业创新网络应对"创造性毁灭"的能力是学界和业界关注的重点。针对产业创新网络结果研究中动态中观层面的缺失,本研究聚焦整体网视角下技术群体的成员变动影响产业创新网络抗毁性的多层级作用关系,分析技术群体耦合的中介作用和群间技术异质性的调节作用。本研究以新能源产业主要技术领域的138个专利引用网络为研究对象,执行网络拓扑分析和层次回归分析进行实证检验。结果表明:技术群体耦合在技术群体成员变动与产业创新网络抗毁性的关系中起非线性中介作用,群间技术异质性正向调节中介作用的前半段路径。本研究拓展了技术群体的动态属性研究及其与产业创新网络抗毁性的跨层级关系研究,深化了技术群体成员变动如何影响产业创新网络抗毁性的作用机制。研究结论揭示了技术群体微观成员变动影响更高层次网络结果的作用机制,对产业政策部门如何构建抗毁性较高的创新网络具有重要的实践价值。     

牛肺肝素钠提取工艺研究

本课题研究了牛肺肝素钠提取工艺及工艺条件，目前采用的酶解或盐解工艺，都不能将肝素与蛋白质形成的糖蛋白完全分离，得不到理想的提取效果，但采用胰酶酶解后再盐解则获得较高的肝素收率。     

中国经济增长的资本策略选择

本文通过对资本及资本对经济增长的作用的分析, 提出中国现阶段经济增长的资本策略选择应从宏观经济和区域经济两个层面考虑, 根据中国经济增长的具体情况来做资本策略的选择。     

外商直接投资、技术外溢与我国经济增长

我国自改革开放以来,外商直接投资(FDI)发展迅速。2002年我国首次超过美国成为全球引进外资最多的国家,2004年吸引外资又创新高,首次突破600亿美元大关,仍居世界第一。外商直接投资作为国际技术外溢的主要渠道之一,是实现我国技术进步的重要途径。为此,我们应继续坚持对外开放政策,采取各项措施充分发挥我国FDI的技术外溢效应,以促进我国国民经济稳定、持续地发展。     

The North-South divide: Sources of divergence,policies for convergence

Building on the labour-augmented K+S model framework, we analyse the Italian North-South divide by means of an agent-based model (ABM) endogenously reproducing the divergence between two artificial macro-regions. The latter are characterised by identical initial conditions in terms of productive and innovation structures, but different labour market organisations. We identify the role played by these different arrangements on the possible divergence across the two regions. We found that divergences in the labour market reverberate into asymmetric productive performance due to negative reinforcing feedback loop dynamics. We then compare alternative mitigation policies by showing that schemes increasing machine renewal and replacement investment are the most effective in fostering convergence.