Adaptive tests of regression functions via multiscale generalized likelihood ratios

Many applications of nonparametric tests based on curve estimation involve selecting a smoothing parameter. The author proposes an adaptive test that combines several generalized likelihood ratio tests in order to get power performance nearly equal to whichever of the component tests is best. She derives the asymptotic joint distribution of the component tests and that of the proposed test under the null hypothesis. She also develops a simple method of selecting the smoothing parameters for the proposed test and presents two approximate methods for obtaining its P‐value. Finally, she evaluates the proposed test through simulations and illustrates its application to a set of real data.     

封建大家族颓败的必然趋势-试论贾府只知安富尊荣与不善运筹谋划

主仆上下一味地安富尊荣和不善运筹谋划,是导致贾府颓败的基本原因.其当家者,或不善于运筹谋划,或为极端利己主义者,或昏庸度日无所事事;而真正有远见卓识者则一律不在其位,难谋其政.最终使得贾府败亡.     

论当代大学生道德知行分离与协调

随着改革开放和社会主义市场经济建设不断深入 ,新观念、新思想层出不穷 ,许多落后陈旧的道德观念得到更新 ,同时也有一些腐朽、没落的道德观念沉渣泛起 ,还有一些似是而非的错误思想观念披着新观念的外衣 ,模糊了人们的视野 ,动摇了人们的善恶是非标准 ,这些都对传统道德提出了严峻的挑战。因此构建当代大学生的价值观和认识评价标准 ,既要弘扬和维系那些优秀的传统道德规范和观念 ,又要与时俱进 ,高扬时代精神 ,进行道德观念的创新 ,使爱国奉献、服务社会、爱岗敬业、诚实守信、创新进取等一系列基本道德规范和行为规范深入每一位大学生的日常生活和精神世界     

皇家亚洲文会北中国支会述论

皇家亚洲文会北中国支会是近代外侨在上海建立的一个重要文化机构 ,95年里 ,它对中国的自然和社会进行了广泛调查与深入研究 ,以其独有的模式在中西文化交流过程中做出了突出贡献。     

BURR CRITICAL VALUE APPROXIMATIONS FOR TESTS OF AUTOCORRELATION AND HETEROSCEDASTICITY

The paper evaluates the accuracy of Burr approximations of critical values and p-values for test a of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in the linear regression model.     

Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

长江三峡人文地理研究的回顾与展望

以文献法为主要研究方法,利用网络资源检索出的相关专业论文,选取了其中的150多篇为研究基础,并参考了部分专著,在回顾以长江三峡为特定区域的人文地理研究的历史进程的基础上进行了综合评述。重点分析、总结了1990年代以来的主要研究特点,并在此基础上就长江三峡人文地理研究的未来趋向进行了展望。     

20世纪三四十年代西北地区宗教生活的变迁

20世纪三四十年代,随着民族危机的加深和国民政府开发西北战略的实施,西北地区民众的宗教生活也发生了某些变化,具体表现为佛教信仰衰而复振,基督教信仰趋于兴盛,伊斯兰教活动与时俱进,道教信仰的衰落与留存;民间诸神信仰并行不悖。这从一个侧面反映了当时西北地区民众的精神状态和社会生活方式的变迁。     

BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE

This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature.     

"信访权"之宪法定位

我国宪法并无信访权的规定,但一般认为,信访制度的宪法依据是宪法第41条,是公民宪法赋予的建议权、申诉权的具体体现。然而从实践和宪法权利理论出发,有必要对信访权加以分解,分为政治性权利和非政治性权利,从代议机构监督和制衡行政权的高度加强信访制度建设,推进我国宪政制度的完善。