The state of domestic affairs: Housework,gender and state-level institutional logics

Multi-level cross-national research consistently shows individual housework arrangements are structured by broader contexts of equality. Across this body of research, the United States is treated as a single entity. Yet, individual-level housework time may vary by state-to-state differences in institutional market, family and legislative logics. To test these relationships, we pair individual-level data from the American Time Use Survey (2003–2012; aged 18 to 64 n = 106,190) with three state-level indices – female labor force empowerment, family traditionalism and state government liberalism. For market institutional logics, we find wives and husbands spend more but mothers less time in housework in states where women have more labor market power. For family logics, we find mothers spend more and husbands less time in housework in more traditional states. For legislative logics, we find women and husbands spend more time in housework in more liberal states. Our results highlight the importance of state-to-state institutional logics on individuals' housework time.     

Wildfire forecasting: between criminal act and unintentional events

Forecasting represents the new credo in the reorganization of risks prevention. What does the introduction of such technology mean in terms of fire-fighting practice and policy? By applying Practice-Based Studies, forecasting practice emerges as a form of practical knowledge resulting from the alignment of the forecasting tool with foresters’ former competences, expertise, practices and tools. The acknowledgement of practical and scientific knowledge linked to forecasting allows the identification of the different organizational cultures linked to fire-fighting. For foresters wildfire is mainly a criminal act and forecasting a policing activity. This use of the artefact silences alternative approaches to wildfire-fighting such as the prevention of unintentional acts. While forecasting technology may reproduce forms of blindness in the future, anticipation becomes then an interesting research objet, embedded in dominant professional cultures and forms of knowledge.     

Attenuating focalism in affective forecasts of the commuting experience: Implications for economic decisions and policy making

Focalism is a cognitive bias that overweights the contribution of certain attributes to the consumption experience. This paper proposes that focalism afflicts choice of transport mode for commuting. A field study and two experiments provide evidence that commuting by bus is estimated to be less enjoyable than it is experienced to be and that driving to work is estimated to be more enjoyable than it is experienced to be. To the extent that commuting behavior is informed by subjective expected utility, commuters will inflict unanticipated costs on themselves and on society. Transport mode choice has external and dynamic consequences. Focalism in this domain implies welfare distortions that are worthy of policymakers’ attention. This paper develops a novel debiasing technique, Affective Averaging, that reveals and attenuates focalism in affective forecasts of commuting.     

Emergency purchasing situations: Implications for consumer decision-making

This article introduces the emergency purchasing situation (EPS) as a distinct buying context. EPSs stem from an unexpected event (unanticipated need or timing of a need), as well as high product importance, which are associated with a short time frame for consumer decision-making. Our conceptual review integrates largely disconnected strands of research and theories relevant to EPSs and offers a series of independent propositions to understand how these situations might affect consumer decision-making, specifically heuristic versus reflective information processing in product evaluation. We discuss changes induced by the buying context in terms of regulatory focus, perceived time pressure, and stress. Our propositions further account for purchase involvement in the form of product importance, purchase risk, and product substitutability. Finally, we consider how individual differences (expertise and trust) may affect evaluation processes. Our discussion reflects on the implications of our model, avenues for future research, and how an understanding of EPSs can be used to improve managerial practice.     

SAS软件的应用——基于ARMA模型的商品销售额的预测分析

文章运用SAS软件系统中的一些时间序列建模方法及回归分析方法对某商品的月销售额作了预测分析,得到了较高的预测精度,在实际应用中预测值的准确对于指导商家的战略决策起着重要作用.     

Statistical methods for regular monitoring data

Summary.  Meteorological and environmental data that are collected at regular time intervals on a fixed monitoring network can be usefully studied combining ideas from multiple time series and spatial statistics, particularly when there are little or no missing data. This work investigates methods for modelling such data and ways of approximating the associated likelihood functions. Models for processes on the sphere crossed with time are emphasized, especially models that are not fully symmetric in space–time. Two approaches to obtaining such models are described. The first is to consider a rotated version of fully symmetric models for which we have explicit expressions for the covariance function. The second is based on a representation of space–time covariance functions that is spectral in just the time domain and is shown to lead to natural partially nonparametric asymmetric models on the sphere crossed with time. Various models are applied to a data set of daily winds at 11 sites in Ireland over 18 years. Spectral and space–time domain diagnostic procedures are used to assess the quality of the fits. The spectral-in-time modelling approach is shown to yield a good fit to many properties of the data and can be applied in a routine fashion relative to finding elaborate parametric models that describe the space–time dependences of the data about as well.     

RC串联电路的随机共振

研究了时间常数受非对称双值色噪声扰动的RC串联电路的随机共振现象。利用随机平均法和Shapiro-Loginov公式,得到了平均输出幅度增益的精确表达式。分析表明,平均输出幅度增益是噪声的强度、自相关率和非对称性参数的非单调函数,适当的噪声参数和系统参数可以使平均输出幅度增益取得最小值,输出幅度增益关于噪声非对称性和相关速率的函数的最小值不随信号频率的变化而变化。     

黑龙江省人口预测及分析

基于第五次人口普查数据对黑龙江省人口进行了预测。预测结果表明:按中方案黑龙江省人口将于2018年左右进入负增长,人口数量将达3 896．11万人,高方案将于2032年进入负增长,人口数量将达4 004．8万人。人口老化将很快成为人口的又一个突出矛盾。     

ISO 9000 and Public Organizations in Taiwan: Organizational Differences in Implementation Practices with Organization Size,Unionization and Service Types

An empirical study that utilizes a mailed survey to assess the initiatives and key factors of implementing ISO programs in various governmental departments in Taiwan was carried out. The results of this study identify five critical factors of successful ISO implementation in public organizations and show that the certification of ISO 9000 is seen as a tool for improving organizational images and creating the structures to integrate changed responsibilities for public organizations in Taiwan. The results also reveal differences in ISO 9000 implementation practices associated with organization size, unionization, and service types.     

差分对振荡电路分析

通过对差分电路在大信号模型下的集电极电流的频谱分析 ,讨论了差分振荡电路的非线性失真、起振条件、输出电压等特性 ,并简要说明了差分振荡电路的调整方法