Missing data and forecasting in multivariate time series: An application of the common components dynamic linear model

Summary The paper deals with missing data and forecasting problems in multivariate time series making use of the Common Components Dynamic Linear Model (DLMCC), presented in Quintana (1985), and West and Harrison (1989). Some results are presented and discussed: exploiting the correlation between series, estimated by the DLMCC, the paper shows as it is possible to update state vector posterior distributions for the unobserved series. This is realized on the base of the updating of the observed series state vectors, for which the usual Kalman filter equations can be applied. An application concerning some Italian private consumption series provides an example of the model capabilities.     

The Boston Area Diary Study and the Moral Citizenship of Care

This paper describes the theoretical foundations, empirical findings, and practical and philosophical implications of the Boston Area Diary Study (BADS), a study of the caring behavior of 44 participants over one calendar year. In particular, the paper presents an identification theory of care and discusses how it shaped the conceptualization, collection, and analysis of the data in a year-long diary study of daily voluntary assistance. The findings from the BADS (1) theoretically confirm the identification theory of care; (2) methodologically capture how individuals perceive and carry out caring behavior as a unity; and (3rpar; empirically document the existence of a moral citizenship in America that is substantially more vigorous than is implied by the usual indicators of civic and political citizenship.     

转子动不平衡载荷的在线识别

本文提出用复模态影响系数来解决转了大衡的在线以别和诊断问题，讨论了影响系数矩阵的力学意义．试验中可不加试重求出影响系数，并编制了相应的计算程序．     

A strategy for third-party logistics systems: A case analysis using the blue ocean strategy

One of today's most frequently discussed topics in the business world is how to escape from the intense Red Ocean and how to create an uncontested Blue Ocean. However, because there are few practical guidelines available on this topic, we will introduce a case study of a third-party logistics (3PL) provider, CJ-Global Logistics Service (CJ-GLS), to show how it aspires to be a leader in the newly introduced 3PL industry in South Korea. CJ-GLS is a latecomer in the logistics industry, and its resources, such as the number of trucks and warehouses, are relatively small in comparison to those of established companies. But, it has achieved a distinct competitive advantage through innovative information technology (i.e., RFID—radio frequency identification), which has enabled it to create an uncontested market space, electronic logistics business. One remarkable fact about CJ-GLS is that its swift growth comes not from attracting competitors’ customers from the existing Red Ocean market but from creating a Blue Ocean market (3PL market), which previously existing incumbents ignored, and also from constructing a new business model founded on a RFID-based, ubiquitous-oriented 3PL system. Analyzed through a Four Actions Framework and characterized as Blue Ocean, this case study provides valuable information on how a company reinforces its competitive advantage from the Red Ocean while it transitions into a Blue Ocean by utilizing advanced information communication technologies.     

女性闲暇生活状况——以福建省为例

利用福建省第二期中国妇女社会地位抽样调查资料,从福建女性拥有的闲暇时间的多寡、闲暇活动的丰富程度以及闲暇活动的内容方面来考察福建女性的闲暇生活状况.并根据数据分析女性闲暇生活各个方面的影响因素.最后根据福建省女性闲暇生活的特点及其影响因素提出进一步改善女性闲暇生活的几点建议.     

Economic Determinants of Net International Migration in Western Europe

This paper aims to estimate theinfluence of economic determinants on netinternational migration in Western Europe inthe period 1960–1998. Net migration rates(i.e., population growth minus natural increase,divided by the midyear population) constitutethe dependent variable. The economicdeterminants used in this study are GDP percapita, unemployment, and average educationallevel (amount of human capital) of thepopulation. Time series regression models havebeen used in country-specific analyses. Inaddition, a pooled cross-sectional time seriesanalysis has been made. The analyses suggestthat GDP per capita has a positive effect andunemployment a negative effect on a country'snet international migration.     

浅谈《战国策》的论理技巧与语言艺术

《战国策》为文铺排渲染,辩丽恣肆,陈说事理纵横捭阖,体情状物酣畅淋漓,堪称先秦史家之文中的出类拔萃之作。在论理技巧方面,《战国策》的文章大都善于分析形势,指陈利害,好设机巧,引人入彀,诱敌就范,进退有据,擒纵自如,具有极强的说服力和感染力。就语言而论,《战国策》之文大都放言无惮,绝少掩饰,文辞铺张扬厉,气势恢宏,且又精炼传神,形象生动,富于华彩,其语言艺术的精熟富丽,也大大超过了先秦其它几部历史散文。     

学校早期读写训练对儿童读写成绩的影响

利用儿童家庭一学校早期语言与识字能力系列测验对每个目标儿童语言与识字能力发展进行了评定，并解释了这些测量结果与儿童学校早期语言与识字测量指标之间的关系。结果表明：(1)儿童丰富的同伴关系与词汇量、应变识字能力、下定义能力和理解力有关；(2)教师语言的丰富性有助于儿童语言与识字能力发展；(3)识字课程变量与三岁儿童的应变识字成绩和四岁儿童词汇量和故事理解有关；(4)影响儿童语言与识字能力的因素不是单一的，而是一个因素群。     

重要数据跨境流动背景下风险路径的识别与分级

重要数据的跨境流动引发了数据安全、国家安全等风险挑战。风险路径的识别和分级是对重要数据跨境流动进行预警管理的重要内容。本文基于复杂网络中的二分网络模型,对重要数据的跨境流动进行研究。首先,通过重要数据跨境流动的二分网络和关联网络识别风险路径;其次,构建基于网络结构和接收节点属性的目标风险路径方法以计算其风险值;最后,对我国某重要行业跨境流动的数据开展实证分析,验证算法的有效性和精准度。本文旨在为重要数据跨境流动的预警管理提供量化方法,有效预防重要数据跨境流动带来的风险,提升我国数据治理能力。     

关联理论视角下的隐喻翻译研究——以《抗击新冠肺炎疫情的中国行动》英译为例

借助Pragglejaz团队的“隐喻识别程序”对《抗击新冠肺炎疫情的中国行动》白皮书中的隐喻进行分类描述,从认知关联视角切入对各类隐喻翻译进行案例分析。为实现白皮书类外宣文本国际传播的最佳社会效益,最大语境效果、共同的语境假设以及交际传播的目的是译者在实现隐喻跨语际转换时的重要考量准则。