流动人口子女及其教育：概念的辨析

“流动人口子女”这一概念近些年使用非常广泛 ,但它本身却是一个遭到误用、被窄化使用的概念。按照概念准确地说 ,流动人口子女不仅指流入城市的流动儿童 ,也应该包括留在乡村的“留守儿童”。因此 ,讨论“流动人口子女教育”的问题 ,也相应需要从这两个方面的一致之处着眼 ,以从整体和宏观的角度全面看待这个问题 ,把握问题的实质并更好地解决问题。     

苏南地区青少年教育的若干思考

基于对苏南部分地区的实地调查，讨论分析了该地区青少年人口结构、生活环境特点和存在问题，以及转型期社会现实中对青少年健康成长的不利影响因素，阐述了强化青少年正面教育的对策性思考     

明初舟山群岛废县徙民及其影响

元末明初，舟山群岛是方国珍及其余部反元抗明的最主要根据地。朱元璋为防止他们与内陆的反明势力联合，以防止“倭寇”为名，在舟山实行迁卫、废县、徙民措施，接着在全国实施严厉的海禁政策。舟山群岛的废县徙民不仅造成舟山的渔农业长期荒芜、交通停顿、文教中断，而且引发海上武装走私猖摄，并导致所谓嘉靖年间长达几十年的“倭患”和“平倭战争”，使舟山及东南沿海的经济遭到更大的摧残。     

Computational methods for complex stochastic systems: a review of some alternatives to MCMC

We consider analysis of complex stochastic models based upon partial information. MCMC and reversible jump MCMC are often the methods of choice for such problems, but in some situations they can be difficult to implement; and suffer from problems such as poor mixing, and the difficulty of diagnosing convergence. Here we review three alternatives to MCMC methods: importance sampling, the forward-backward algorithm, and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We discuss how to design good proposal densities for importance sampling, show some of the range of models for which the forward-backward algorithm can be applied, and show how resampling ideas from SMC can be used to improve the efficiency of the other two methods. We demonstrate these methods on a range of examples, including estimating the transition density of a diffusion and of a discrete-state continuous-time Markov chain; inferring structure in population genetics; and segmenting genetic divergence data.     

关于城镇人口就业的发展趋势与人口控制

本文阐述了人口就业在机制、渠道、就业压力等方面的发展趋势，并提出了顺应发展需要所必须选择的人口控制的若干措施和建议     

Who captures the marks for the Petersen estimator?

Summary.  We examine the claim that the well-known Petersen estimator which is used in population size estimation was not in fact used by the scientist after whom it is named. We show how, in the early years of the last century, the modern use of the Petersen estimator grew from that of the fishing coefficient. Contending with the somewhat conflicting claims that were made at the time, and what by modern standards is poor referencing of sources, we investigate where the credit lies for these concepts, and the principles and protocols which support them. We assess also how far attributions of credit were affected by practical considerations, and the history of the estimator by the nature of the problems being pursued. We identify scientists whose early work on marking and estimating fish populations deserves more credit than it has received.     

Non-parametric estimation of population size from capture–recapture data when the capture probability depends on a covariate

Summary.  In capture–recapture experiments the capture probabilities may depend on individual covariates such as an individual's weight or age. Typically this dependence is modelled through simple parametric functions of the covariates. Here we first demonstrate that misspecification of the model can produce biased estimates and subsequently develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the functional relationship between the probability of capture and a single covariate. This estimator is then incorporated in a Horvitz–Thompson estimator to estimate the size of the population. The resulting estimators are evaluated in a simulation study and applied to a data set on captures of the Mountain Pygmy Possum.     

A new mixture model for capture heterogeneity

Summary.  We propose a mixture of binomial and beta–binomial distributions for estimating the size of closed populations. The new mixture model is applied to several real capture–recapture data sets and is shown to provide a convenient, objective framework for model selection. The new model is compared with three alternative models in a simulation study, and the results shed light on the general performance of models in this area. The new model provides a robust flexible analysis, which automatically deals with small capture probabilities.     

近代日本消费需求变动的因素分析

长期影响近代日本消费需求变动的因素主要有四个方面:国民经济的不断增长和国民收入的不断提高是近代日本消费需求逐渐上升的物质基础和前提条件;近代工矿交通事业的发展,使国民收入分配格局朝着有利于劳动的方向转变,这是促进近代日本消费需求不断上升的积极力量;人口规模及其构成的变动是近代日本消费需求不断上升的重要推动力量;消费的示范效应、攀比行为和不可逆行为对消费需求不断上升起着一定的推动作用。     

中国少数民族村寨人口流动特征及其影响因素分析

根据28个不同的少数民族村寨的人口流动数据资料,将其分为推力拉力不足类型、推力拉力共同作用类型、文化风俗影响类型、开发程度制约类型、开放程度推动类型、跨境收入拉动类型6种,对其人口流动的特征、规律和影响因素进行了归纳。