The beveridge-nelson decomposition: Properties and extensions

Summary This paper discusses the time series properties of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and provides extensions in two fundamental directions: in the first place it is shown that anyARIMA(p, 2, q) process can be additively decomposed into anIMA (2, 1) trend and a stationary component; secondly, for the class of seasonally integrated processes, i.e. displaying unit roots at the seasonal frequencies, another component, namely the seasonal component, is identified by the condition that its predictions will average, out to zero over any one-year time span. Furthermore, algorithms for the extraction of the components are given which exploit the Kalman filter recursions once the data generating process is cast in the state space form.     

美国新能源汽车产业发展战略分析及启示

随着世界各国经济的发展,环境保护的问题的日益严峻,以新能源汽车产业为代表的高新技术产业的发展进程受到了全球各国国家政府以及各个海内外企业的日益重视和关切。通过分析美国新能源汽车的发展战略和产业政策,指出中国在新能源汽车产业的发展中存在的问题,有助于我国制定和实施新能源汽车相关措施。     

Further Evidence on the Great Crash,the Oil-Price Shock,and the Unit-Root Hypothesis

Recently, Perron has carried out tests of the unit-root hypothesis against the alternative hypothesis of trend stationarity with a break in the trend occurring at the Great Crash of 1929 or at the 1973 oil-price shock. His analysis covers the Nelson–Plosser macroeconomic data series as well as a postwar quarterly real gross national product (GNP) series. His tests reject the unit-root null hypothesis for most of the series. This article takes issue with the assumption used by Perron that the Great Crash and the oil-price shock can be treated as exogenous events. A variation of Perron's test is considered in which the breakpoint is estimated rather than fixed. We argue that this test is more appropriate than Perron's because it circumvents the problem of data-mining. The asymptotic distribution of the estimated breakpoint test statistic is determined. The data series considered by Perron are reanalyzed using this test statistic. The empirical results make use of the asymptotics developed for the test statistic as well as extensive finite-sample corrections obtained by simulation. The effect on the empirical results of fat-tailed and temporally dependent innovations is investigated, in brief, by treating the breakpoint as endogenous, we find that there is less evidence against the unit-root hypothesis than Perron finds for many of the data series but stronger evidence against it for several of the series, including the Nelson-Plosser industrial-production, nominal-GNP, and real-GNP series.     

Properties of Designs in Experiments on Spatial Lattices

ABSTRACT

When spatial variation is present in experiments, it is clearly sensible to use designs with favorable properties under both generalized and ordinary least squares. This will make the statistical analysis more robust to misspecification of the spatial model than would be the case if designs were based solely on generalized least squares. In this article, treatment information is introduced as a way of studying the ordinary least squares properties of designs. The treatment information is separated into orthogonal frequency or polynomial components which are assumed to be independent under the spatial model. The well-known trend-resistant designs are those with no treatment information at the very low order frequency or polynomial components which tend to have the higher variances under the spatial model. Ideally, designs would be chosen with all the treatment information distributed at the higher-order components. However, the results in this article show that there are limits on how much trend resistance can be achieved as there are many constraints on the treatment information. In addition, appropriately chosen Williams squares designs are shown to have favorable properties under both ordinary and generalized least squares. At all times, the ordinary least squares properties of the designs are balanced against the generalized least squares objectives of optimizing neighbor balance.     

Trend,Growth Rate,and Change Point Analysis—A Data Driven Approach

A data-driven technique is proposed to estimate the trend and relative growth rate of time series data. The method is based on the local linear regression smoother and the only assumption about the form of the trend and growth rate function is that they are smooth functions of time. We also extended the method for handling sudden shifts or changes in the trend or growth rate functions by adding dummy variables for the jumps. Simulation studies are carried out to see the performance of the proposed procedure. The method is applied to study the trend and growth rate of wheat production in India from 1951–2005.     

长吉图先导区面临的国内外环境与发展趋势研究

后危机时代,随着经济全球化和区域经济一体化浪潮的再度掀起,东北亚再次成为全球大国博弈的热点地区。从国家发展战略的高度出发,以世界经济理论、区域经济理论为指导,深入研究长吉图先导区建设面临的国内外环境,探讨长吉图先导区建设的发展趋势,科学把握长吉图发展的客观规律,对于有效推进长吉图先导区建设,推进大图们江开发和东北亚区域经济合作,具有十分重要的现实意义。     

科研信息化现状及其网络协同化趋势研究

人类社会信息化进程的推进造就了知识创新的主体——科学研究活动的信息化趋势,自二十一世纪初科研信息化(e-Science)概念提出以来,世界各国都不惜投入巨额资金从国家战略层面研发科研信息化平台,促进科学研究工作的运行效率。随着人类科学研究进程的不断深化,学科交叉现象日趋明显,大科学时代的到来使得科学研究活动从学科形态、组织结构、科研数据等多方面朝着网络协同化趋势发展。     

On the asymptotic distribution of a simple unit root test for trending and breaking series

In this paper, we derive the asymptotic distribution of Popp's (2008) innovational outlier unit root test for trending series with a break. The results of Zivot and Andrews (1992) are applied to provide the limiting results of these new test statistics. We tabulate their asymptotic and finite sample critical values, and illustrate the use of the new statistics with an application to the unemployment rate series for 23 OECD countries.     

陕西未来人口发展趋势分析

自上世纪70年代大力开展计划生育以来,陕西在控制人口增长方面取得了较为显著的成绩,人口生育率进入到低生育水平时期。进入“十一五”．陕西制定了国民经济和社会发展计划,提出到2020年全省总人口控制在4050万以内．确保人均国内生产总值达到3500美元。本文将依据2005年1％人口抽样调查资料,采用年龄移算法．对陕西省2006-2030年的人口发展规模、人口生育率、人口增长率、人口年龄构成变化、育龄妇女变化等进行科学准确的测算。提出了在低生育水平下．人口与计划生育工作出现的新情况、新问题,是构建社会主义和谐社会、落实科学发展观大环境下人口与计划生育工作者面临的新的机遇和挑战。     

儒学的现代建构与反思——兼论全球化视野下中国传统文化的境遇与发展

"儒学的现代价值何以可能"是新世纪儒学研究中的核心命题,目前的相关研究大致可归纳为"内在超越说"、"生命意识说"和"面向生活说"三种学说形态,它们分别从宗教性精神、类现代性批判精神和日常生活批判精神这三个方面阐发了传统儒学之于现代社会的功能性涵义,这既体现了现代人的价值评判与选择的自由,同时又反映出儒学自身所具有的巨大文化张力,在这一过程中产生的"儒学救世论"、"多元理论模式"和"儒学现代化与马克思主义中国化的关系"等问题也呈现出全球化语境下中国传统文化的境遇及发展所面临的机遇与挑战。