创新·融合·集聚--论文化产业、信息技术与城市空间三者间的互动趋势

以文化内容的创造为核心的21世纪文化产业,是在信息科技快速进步的背景下发展的,也是在城市空间中不断集聚的.三者互动的大趋势,要求政府部门、企业、科技机构和非政府组织形成一种新的合力发展与监督共享机制,在关键技术和关键领域有所突破,有所创新,从而带动整个产业和周边领域的发展.     

ANALYSIS OF VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF SHIFTS IN MEAN

This paper considers the implications of mean shifts in a multivariate setting. It is shown that under the additive outlier type mean shift specification, the intercept in each equation of the vector autoregression (VAR) will be subject to multiple shifts when the break dates of the mean shifts to the univariate series do not coincide. Conversely, under the innovative outlier type mean shift specification, both the univariate and the multivariate time series are subject to multiple shifts when mean shifts to the innovation processes occur at different dates. We consider two procedures, the first removes the shifts series by series before forming the VAR, and the second removes intercept shifts in the VAR directly. The pros and cons of both methods are discussed.     

新世纪中国人力资源管理研究面临的挑战与发展趋势

新世纪 ,中国人力资源管理研究面临着一系列前所未有的挑战。这些挑战主要有 :学科归类遭到来自众多学科的排挤和歧视 ;学科研究的理论基础比较薄弱 ;学科建设面临着两难选择的困境 ;学术研究内容大有包罗一切的嫌疑 ;学术研究人员存在急功近利的现象等。展望新世纪 ,中国人力资源管理研究的发展趋势是 :注重跨文化背景下的人力资源管理研究 ;人力资源管理研究将更加注重夯实基础 ;人力资源管理研究需要跨学科攻关 ;量化研究方法在人力资源管理研究中将得到广泛应用 ;公共部门人力资源管理研究将提上议事日程 ,并与企业人力资源管理研究趋同等。     

冷战后美欧关系的发展及其评析———从前苏联解体到伊拉克战争简

冷战后,由于前苏联的解体,美欧关系出现了新的变化,本文概述了从冷战结束后美欧关系的三个阶段,分析了影响双边关系发展的因素,并由此认为,未来欧洲的独立性倾向会逐渐显露,而美欧关系的发展对于未来世界格局的影响,存在两种倾向,一种是如果美国未来继续保持超强国力,那么欧洲会更多地依附于美国;另外一种可能的倾向是,随着美国和其他大国未来综合国力的接近,欧洲会有更为明显的独立性倾向发展。在后一种情况下,国际格局会更有利于向多极化发展。     

中国老龄人口消费:现状与趋势

目前我国正处于快速人口老龄化阶段,老龄人口规模增加给国家和社会带来了沉重的医疗和养老负担,但老年消费量连年增长说明其中也蕴藏着极大的消费潜能和市场机遇。为此,本文对我国老龄人口各项消费支出现状进行分析,在此基础上,对未来老龄消费者的需求水平和消费总量做出量化预测,以期为企业开拓老龄市场提供参考,为政府相关部门制定规划提供借鉴。     

Trend-Free Designs in Blocked Factorial Experiments

Appropriate run orders can make all estimable effects free of some trends in blocked fractional factorial experiments. We need to design blocked experiments with effects free of trends in blocks. The generalized foldover scheme given by Coster (1993 Coster , D. C. ( 1993 ). Trend-free run orders of mixed-level fractional factorial designs . Ann. Statist. 21 : 2072 – 2086 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) can be used to obtain such designs. In this article, we propose an easy and better approach to deal with this issue when the same trends appear in blocks. We investigate block trend property of columns in the orthogonal plans in s ^k runs for assigning factors to obtain block-trend free designs in a trend-free order. We illustrate our approach with three examples.     

大数据分析仍需要统计思想——以ARGO模型为例

在大数据时代,传统的统计学是否还有用武之地成为很多人的争议。本文以ARGO模型为案例,介绍了统计方法在大数据分析中的应用和取得的成果,并从统计学的角度出发,提出改进的措施与方法。通过ARGO模型的分析结果发现,大数据分析的很多根本性问题仍然是统计问题,而数据中的统计规律仍然是数据分析要挖掘的最大价值,这也意味着统计思想在大数据分析中只能越来越重要。而对于结构复杂、来源多样的大数据来说,统计学方法也需要新的探索和尝试,这将是统计学所面临的机遇和挑战。     

Estimation of Population Mean in the Presence of Linear Trend

The present article deals with some methods for estimation of finite populations means in the presence of linear trend among the population values. As a result, we provided a strategy for the selection of sampling interval k for the case of circular systematic sampling, which ensures better estimator for the population mean compared to other choices of the sampling interval. This has been established based on empirical studies. Further we more, applied multiple random starts methods for selecting random samples for the case of linear systematic sampling and diagonal systematic sampling schemes. We also derived the explicit expressions for the variances and their estimates. The relative performances of simple random sampling, linear systematic sampling and diagonal systematic sampling schemes with single and multiple random starts are also assessed based on numerical examples.     

Comment on “Issues Involved With the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series” by William R. Bell and Steven C. Hiilmer

This article investigates the existence of multiple regimes in the U.S. economy during the 1923—1991 period. A technique known as regression tree analysis is applied to search for splits in the data, if any exist, rather than choosing a splitting point a priori as has been done in previous work. Using this technique, strong evidence for the existence of nonlinear behavior of U.S. output is found over this period. Monte Carlo results are presented to assess the significance of the regime changes that are found.     

A Review of Some Modern Approaches to the Problem of Trend Extraction

This article presents a review of some modern approaches to trend extraction for one-dimensional time series, which is one of the major tasks of time series analysis. The trend of a time series is usually defined as a smooth additive component which contains information about the time series global change, and we discuss this and other definitions of the trend. We do not aim to review all the novel approaches, but rather to observe the problem from different viewpoints and from different areas of expertise. The article contributes to understanding the concept of a trend and the problem of its extraction. We present an overview of advantages and disadvantages of the approaches under consideration, which are: the model-based approach (MBA), nonparametric linear filtering, singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and wavelets. The MBA assumes the specification of a stochastic time series model, which is usually either an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model or a state space model. The nonparametric filtering methods do not require specification of model and are popular because of their simplicity in application. We discuss the Henderson, LOESS, and Hodrick–Prescott filters and their versions derived by exploiting the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space methodology. In addition to these prominent approaches, we consider SSA and wavelet methods. SSA is widespread in the geosciences; its algorithm is similar to that of principal components analysis, but SSA is applied to time series. Wavelet methods are the de facto standard for denoising in signal procession, and recent works revealed their potential in trend analysis.