Bayesian credible intervals for response surface optima

In response surface methodology, one is usually interested in estimating the optimal conditions based on a small number of experimental runs which are designed to optimally sample the experimental space. Typically, regression models are constructed from the experimental data and interrogated in order to provide a point estimate of the independent variable settings predicted to optimize the response. Unfortunately, these point estimates are rarely accompanied with uncertainty intervals. Though classical frequentist confidence intervals can be constructed for unconstrained quadratic models, higher order, constrained or nonlinear models are often encountered in practice. Existing techniques for constructing uncertainty estimates in such situations have not been implemented widely, due in part to the need to set adjustable parameters or because of limited or difficult applicability to constrained or nonlinear problems. To address these limitations a Bayesian method of determining credible intervals for response surface optima was developed. The approach shows good coverage probabilities on two test problems, is straightforward to implement and is readily applicable to the kind of constrained and/or nonlinear problems that frequently appear in practice.     

试论大学课堂教育目标的实现

对于课堂教学而言,既要重视对学生知识的传授,也要重视对学生能力和素质的培养,做到"教"和"育"的完美结合。大学课堂教育目标的实现,主要依靠以下四种途径:选择和组织教学内容以建构学生的知识体系;利用讲课艺术和挖掘课程的兴奋点以激发学生学习兴趣;依靠创新教育培养学生的创新能力;发掘各类课程的思想政治教育资源以塑造学生的价值观念。     

《机械原理》与《机械设计》实验教学改革实践

《机械原理》和《机械设计》两门课程的实验教学在培养学生的综合设计、创新设计能力等方面,有其他课程不可替代的重要作用,针对两门课程传统实验教学中存在的问题,提出了以独立设课为中心的实验教学改革和实践方案,取得了显著的效果。     

"包装结构设计"课程教学的实践与探讨

文章讨论了“包装结构设计”课程的特点及传统教学存在的问题,然后在教学内容和教学方法上提出了若干改革建议。     

突出创新思维培养 强化综合素质教育——艺术设计教育教学改革探讨

本文分析了当前艺术设计教育普遍存在的问题,强调艺术设计教学的特殊性,提出了艺术设计人才培养的新思路、新办法。     

工业设计创新及其提升我国专利质量的研究

专利工作关系到一国经济素质的整体提高和国际竞争力的强弱,甚至影响到一个国家的经济安全,因而成为各国经济和科技战略的重要内容。文章在分析我国专利现状的基础上,提出工业设计创新是当前提升我国企业专利质量的现实途径,并分析了工业设计创新的具体思路和实现技术。     

制度分析：可持续发展战略的一种研究思路

本文认为,用制度分析的方法研究可持续发展是十分必要的.文章首先分析了其中物的要素与人的要素的若干特点,然后对与可持续发展相关的几种制度类型进行了探讨,最后,指出了可持续发展的制度安排与制度设计中的基本思路和方法.     

INFORMATION-CENTRED DESIGN: A methodology for designing virtual meeting DESIGN environments

Development of single-user computer applications has often been based on user-centred or task-centred design methodologies, with some success. These methodologies are also useful for guiding the development of multi-user CSCW applications whenever the basic characteristics of the users, or the type of tasks for which the system is being designed are identifiable. The effectiveness of these methodologies as a basis for the design of virtual meeting environments for supporting community-based activities, on the other hand, is rather limited. This is mainly due to the fact that for such systems it is not generally possible to identify the user or task requirements, as these vary considerably from one community to another, or even within the same community over a period of time. New methodologies need to be devised, or existing methodologies have to be modified, to direct the development of virtual environments for which the characteristics of the users or their activities are not known in advance. This paper introduces the concept of information-centred design. Information-centred design, though not fully devised yet, focuses on the identification of the type of information, as well as the way it is collected and utilized by the users of a virtual meeting environment. This pool of information, which plays an important role in facilitating interaction and communication between the members of a community, could be defined as their communal memory.     

高职毕业设计环节存在的问题及对策

毕业设计(论文)是高职教育最后一个教学环节,也是一个十分重要的教学环节,但在目前大多数的高职院校中这一环节的教学还存在一些问题,要想彻底解决这些问题不是一朝一夕的事,但思想重视,措施得当必然可以使突出的矛盾得到缓解。     

民营中小企业信用担保体系研究

民营中小企业信用担保体系可归纳出四大设计原理：功能原理、经营原理、正选原理和博弈原理。针对信用担保体系的问题，提出其健全与发展的建议是：清晰定位担保对象；科学择优担保运作方式：完善资金补偿机制；健全风险分散机制；正确发挥政府作用；促进社会信用体系建设；加强监管体系；建立社会化中介服务体系；加强金保合作，形成共生机制。