顾客导向型政府及其对我国政府改革的启示

自20世纪90年代以来,企业组织的"顾客至上"管理思想引入公共组织。"顾客至上"管理思想打破了传统的生产者导向型政府管理模式,提出了以顾客为导向的新型的政府管理模式。文章介绍了新公共管理视野下,顾客导向型政府的理念及其基本内容,以及建立顾客导向型政府的政策举措;在此基础上结合我国的实情,提出了顾客导向型政府对于我国政府改革的几点有益启示。     

消费信贷政策与经济增长质量——基于第一主成分合成指数和FAVAR模型的实证

测算消费信贷政策与经济增长的关系单单从“量”的维度进行有失偏颇,在考量经济增长“质”与“量”的全面特性的基础上,探寻消费信贷政策与经济增长质量耦合关系中的作用效力更具系统性.文章从作用机理出发构建测度经济增长质量的评价指标体系,采用第一主成分分析法并以协方差矩阵作为输入,确定各基本指标的系数与特征根,测算各基本指标权重以求得各评价维度指数,并以同样方法求得总体层面上经济增长质量指数,进一步以FAVAR模型测算消费信贷政策对所求指数的作用效力.实证分析结果认为:中国经济增长质量、经济增长过程协调性、经济增长过程持续性和经济增长结果质量呈稳步上升态势,经济增长方式质量逐步下降,经济增长过程稳定性基本平稳;消费信贷政策对经济增长质量、经济增长方式质量、经济增长过程协调性、经济增长过程持续性和经济增长结果质量呈现不同程度的正向影响,对经济增长稳定性呈负向影响.     

法律术语英译中的选词问题

两类法律术语的英译尤其要做好认真选词的工作：一类是一词多义的中文法律术语英译,另一类是容易混淆的中国法律术语英译。借助定性分析和中英文法律术语对比研究的研究方法,选取“当事人”“原本、正本、副本”“见证人、证人”等三组中文法律术语,对其在中文法律文本内的特定含义进行分析,指出翻译实践中的错误理解和不确切翻译现象,并提出可信的参考译法。该研究有利于规范法律翻译活动中的术语译名失范现象,为双语法律辞书的编纂和修订提供了数例可资参考的英译词条。实证分析的意义还在于说明选词能力和选词意识是术语得以正确英译的前提,法律翻译者的核心素养在于其具备的中英法律术语对应能力。     

劳动力成本与制造业创新效率——基于首轮“民工荒”后省级层面的经验分析

运用随机前沿分析模型,基于首轮"民工荒"后省级层面的制造业面板数据,在考虑创新投入产出时滞的情况下,测算了中国30个省份首轮"民工荒"后制造业的创新效率,并分析了劳动力成本对创新效率的影响.结果显示:1.2004年首轮"民工荒"后,中国各省份劳动力成本迅速攀升,这在客观上对制造业创新效率提升构成了积极的影响,但这种影响存在明显的时滞,时滞大约为3年.2.总体上,中国制造业创新效率整体均值为0.4987,存在50%左右的效率损失,地区创新效率存在显著差异,区域发展不平衡的矛盾仍然客观存在.3.劳动力成本与人力资本、国有化比重的交互项对创新效率存在一定的间接影响,这种影响存在显著的区域差异,劳动力成本与企业规模对创新效率的影响并不显著;此外,外商投资比重、市场竞争度对创新效率的影响也存在显著的区域差异.     

父母生育二胎意愿的影响因素分析

为了解父母的头胎性别、焦虑、孤独心理对其生育二胎意愿的影响,以《二胎意愿调查表》、《UCLA孤独量表》、《状态-特质焦虑量表》为调查工具,对分层抽样选取的75名独生子女的父母进行问卷调查。研究结果发现：（1）父母在二胎意愿上都稍偏向于不生二胎且头胎性别为男孩时,父母对二胎意愿多持否定态度,而头胎为女孩时,父母多倾向于生二胎。（2）特质焦虑对母亲的二胎意愿有影响,但总的来说,焦虑程度越高,父母对二胎意愿越持否定态度。孤独程度越高,父亲对二胎意愿越持肯定态度。（3）头胎为男孩,父母焦虑程度高,头胎为女孩,父母孤独程度高。（4）父母的状态焦虑分数越高,特质焦虑分数也就越高;母亲的焦虑分数越高,孤独分数也就越高。     

Longitudinal data analysis of mean passage time among malnutrition states: an application of Markov chains

Clinical prognosis of patients can be best described from a longitudinal study and a Markov regression model is an appropriate way of analyzing the prognosis of disease when the outcomes are serially dependent. Mean first passage time (MFPT) is a method to estimate the average number of transitions between the states of a Markov chain. The present study used the secondary data from a longitudinal study which was done during 1982–1986. This study was to illustrate the MFPT among the states of malnutrition, which were classified as Normal, Mild/Moderate and Severe among children aged 5–7 years, in South India. The 95% confidence interval (CI) for the MFPT was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. Markov regression models were used to test for the association of state transitions across the risk factors. The average time taken for an underweight child to transit from Severe state of malnutrition to become Normal was nearly 2.73 (95% CI 2.60–2.86) years and 3.41 (95% CI 3.25–3.58) years in Rural area and 2.31(95% CI 2.20–2.42) in Urban area. The significant difference between the MFPT for some risk factors are useful to plan interventions. It will especially be useful to find the impact of duration among school-going children on their cognitive disorders.     

Modified Profile Likelihood for Fixed-Effects Panel Data Models

We show how modified profile likelihood methods, developed in the statistical literature, may be effectively applied to estimate the structural parameters of econometric models for panel data, with a remarkable reduction of bias with respect to ordinary likelihood methods. Initially, the implementation of these methods is illustrated for general models for panel data including individual-specific fixed effects and then, in more detail, for the truncated linear regression model and dynamic regression models for binary data formulated along with different specifications. Simulation studies show the good behavior of the inference based on the modified profile likelihood, even when compared to an ideal, although infeasible, procedure (in which the fixed effects are known) and also to alternative estimators existing in the econometric literature. The proposed estimation methods are implemented in an R package that we make available to the reader.     

欧阳修著作初传韩国的时间及其刊行、流布的状况

欧阳修是著名的“唐宋人大家”之一,他的文章字字珠现,代代流传,至今传诵不衰。欧阳修的文章不仅在中国有着巨大的影响,并且很早就传入了韩国,在韩国的汉文学史上有着十分重要的地位。本文即旨在分析、论说欧阳修著作韩国的时间及其刊行、流布的具体状况,进而评说欧阳修文章对于韩国文人所产生的诸多影响及其对韩国汉文学发展的贡献所在。     

Some Remarks on Failure-times,Surrogate Markers,Degradation, Wear,and the Quality of Life

Suppose that data are available on failure-times and on a time-evolving process on each individual, called in some contexts wear or degradation. Four rather different types of relation between such a process and failure are described and brief comments on appropriate analysis sketched.     

政府行为与近代中国经济发展

1913—1926年是中国社会转型的重要阶段,也是中国近代经济发展史上的第一个黄金时期。以新制度经济学和历史学的方法,对这一时期经济发展与政府的制度变迁进行研究,既肯定其积极作用,也指出不足。