论盗窃犯罪中价值认识错误

盗窃犯罪是一种常见犯罪。实践中对盗窃犯罪存在一些价值认识错误 ,常把盗窃犯罪的“数额”作为认定盗窃行为罪与非罪、罪轻罪重的关键因素 ,片面强调了犯罪认定的客观方面 ,忽视了行为人主观认识错误对犯罪构成的影响 ,从而背离了犯罪认定的主客观统一的原则     

Marginal Means/Rates Models for Multiple Type Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent events are frequently observed in biomedical studies, and often more than one type of event is of interest. Follow-up time may be censored due to loss to follow-up or administrative censoring. We propose a class of semi-parametric marginal means/rates models, with a general relative risk form, for assessing the effect of covariates on the censored event processes of interest. We formulate estimating equations for the model parameters, and examine asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators. Finite sample properties of the regression coefficients are examined through simulations. The proposed methods are applied to a retrospective cohort study of risk factors for preschool asthma.     

Measurement error, skewness, and risk analysis: coping with the long tail of the distribution.

Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance trees are more likely than not to be below the true probability of adverse events, but will sometimes substantially overestimate them. In contexts such as insurance markets for environmental risks, skewed distributions of risk estimates amplify the "winner's curse" so that the estimated risk premium for low-probability events is likely to be lower than the normative value. Skewness may result even in unbiased estimators of expected value from simple lotteries, if measurement error is associated with both the probability and pay-off terms. Further, skewness may occur even if the error associated with these two estimates is symmetrically distributed. Under certain circumstances, skewed estimates of expected value may result in risk-neutral decisionmakers exhibiting a tendency to choose a certainty equivalent over a lottery of equal expected value, or vice versa. We show that when distributions of estimates of expected value are, positively skewed, under certain circumstances it will be optimal to choose lotteries with nominal values lower than the value of apparently superior certainty equivalents. Extending the previous work of Goodman (1960), we provide an exact formula for the skewness of products.     

宏观经济指标与上证综指长短期走势的预测

上证综合指数和宏观经济指标,如广义货币供应量、国内生产总值、出口与进口的比值,以及外商直接投资之间存在长期的均衡关系,可以通过宏观经济指标来预测上证综合指数的长期走势。误差修正模型的估计结果表明,上证综合指数具备经济"晴雨表"的功能。     

自我概念在人际互动中的应用

自我概念对于个体保持内在一致性、对事物做出准确的判断具有积极作用。目前心理学界对自我概念的结构做出了不同的划分。文章从社会互动的角度,提出自我概念应包括"主我"、"客我"和"他我",并进一步探讨了自我概念在人际互动中的作用。     

美籍犹太作家辛格笔下的愚者意蕴

当代美国著名犹太作家艾·巴·辛格以垂死的犹太民族语言意第绪语,创造出了一系列被西方人认为是犹太民族原型的文学典型———愚者形象。文章结合犹太民族的苦难历史和现状、辛格本人在美国的实际境况以及他笔下的愚者受人嘲弄而不被认同的三种情况,深入剖析三种"局外人"的内因,并具体分析了它们的内涵,从而得出结论认为:三种"局外人"都在渴求和平的人道主义。     

Missing at random (MAR) in nonparametric regression - A simulation experiment

The additive model is considered when some observations on x are missing at random but corresponding observations on y are available. Especially for this model, missing at random is an interesting case because the complete case analysis is expected to be no more suitable. A simulation experiment is reported and the different methods are compared based on their superiority with respect to the sample mean squared error. Some focus is also given on the sample variance and the estimated bias. In detail, the complete case analysis, a kind of stochastic mean imputation, a single imputation and the nearest neighbor imputation are discussed.     

坚持辩证唯物主义反对唯心主义

当代中国马克思主义哲学同形形色色唯心主义的斗争是在某些人公开否认马克思主义哲学的条件下,通过对意识形态阵地的占领与反占领、指导与反指导这样新的形式表现出来.譬如"物吾两忘论",否认主体与客体的对立统一关系,否认马克思主义哲学是认识世界和改造世界的认识论和方法论的知识体系;"三分说"否认理论联系实际的基本原则;"主宰和支配客观规律说"片面夸大人的主观能动作用;"当代中国哲学自觉走向人学论"企图用人学来取代马克思主义哲学在当代中国的指导地位.对于这样一些倾向和思潮,我们必须坚决予以批驳和反对,以巩固和捍卫马克思主义哲学阵地.     

传统计划体制下的管理目标谬误与企业改革

运用系统分析法、功能分析法和案例分析法,研究我国传统计划体制如何通过影响经济系统的管理目标定位从而影响经济运行效率的问题.提出传统计划体制下"管理目标谬误"的概念,分析了管理目标谬误产生的原因和经济运行后果,从而揭示了经济体制通过管理系统的目标定位影响经济效率的内在本质,也揭示了科学管理与体制改革的辩证关系.文章最后指出,要提高企业效率,必须进行经济体制改革.     

Optimizing inventory and marketing policy for non-instantaneous deteriorating items with generalized type deterioration and holding cost rates

This paper considers an inventory system with non-instantaneous deteriorating item in which demand rate is a function of advertisement of an item and selling price. This paper aids the retailer in maximizing the total profit by determining optimal inventory and marketing parameters. In contrast to previous inventory models, an arbitrary holding cost rate and arbitrary deterioration rate have been incorporated to provide general framework to the model. First, a mathematical model is formulated and then some useful theoretical results have been framed to characterize the optimal solutions. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solutions are also derived. An algorithm is designed to find the optimum solutions of the proposed model. Numerical examples are included to illustrate the algorithmic procedure and the effects of key parameters are studied to analyze the behavior of the model.