Unified Conditional Frequentist and Bayesian Testing of Composite Hypotheses

Testing of a composite null hypothesis versus a composite alternative is considered when both have a related invariance structure. The goal is to develop conditional frequentist tests that allow the reporting of data-dependent error probabilities, error probabilities that have a strict frequentist interpretation and that reflect the actual amount of evidence in the data. The resulting tests are also seen to be Bayesian tests, in the strong sense that the reported frequentist error probabilities are also the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses under default choices of the prior distribution. The new procedures are illustrated in a variety of applications to model selection and multivariate hypothesis testing.     

Optimal Change-point Estimation in Inverse Problems

We develop a method of estimating a change-point of an otherwise smooth function in the case of indirect noisy observations. As two paradigms we consider deconvolution and non-parametric errors-in-variables regression. In a similar manner to well-established methods for estimating change-points in non-parametric regression, we look essentially at the difference of one-sided kernel estimators. Because of the indirect nature of the observations we employ deconvoluting kernels. We obtain an estimate of the change-point by the extremal point of the differences between these two-sided kernel estimators. We derive rates of convergence for this estimator. They depend on the degree of ill-posedness of the problem, which derives from the smoothness of the error density. Analysing the Hellinger modulus of continuity of the problem we show that these rates are minimax     

计算机模拟技术在制定月生产计划中的应用

本文设计了一个产品按月出产计划的计算机模拟方案,该方案具有计算机自动调整和人工调整的功能,大大加快了计划的编制速度。     

Stress demands on school administrators in Singapore

This study investigated the use of the Occupational Stress Indicator (OSI) on school administrators in Singapore. The sample of 223 school administrators consisted of the top management group of principals and vice-principals and the middle management group of heads of department. The school administrators reported pressure at work, and consequently, higher levels of mental and physical ill health. They had high locus of control scores, indicating low internal control over their environment. However, they also reported greater use of coping strategies and higher job satisfaction. Psychometrically, the sub-scales of sources of pressure, job satisfaction, and mental and physical ill health were found to be reliable. The items of the scales of type A, locus of control and coping skills had to be re-factor analysed for the Singaporean sample. The new factors were found to have higher reliability. When the stress and job satisfaction levels of the principals/vice-principals and heads of department were compared, the heads of department reported significantly less job satisfaction and higher levels of mental and physical ill health. They perceived less internal control in their work situation.     

心理隧道与印象叠加──话剧《我爱莫扎特》导演阐述

本文是作者为导演话剧《我爱莫扎特》所作的导演阐述（该剧参加’９５广东国际艺术节获导演一等奖）。作者先对剧本的叙述结构、心理结构、哲理结构与形象特征进行了分析，并据此提出了排演该剧在视觉形象、听觉形象及演员表演等方面的处理构想。     

On best affine prediction

The theory of best affine prediction (BAP) is extended to the vector case with possibly singular variance matrix of the predictor variable. The theory is then applied to derive Thomson’s classical predictor for factor scores, allowing for a singular variance matrix of the factors. The results are formulated in a free distribution setting. Further, Bartlett’s estimator is considered and compared with Thomson’s predictor. The authors are thankful to the two referees, one for a suggestion that led to the Addendum of the paper, and the other one for several very useful remarks. Research supported by the Spanish grant BEC2000-0983.     

口语教学中增强大学生的跨文化交际能力

针对大学英语口语课堂上出现的交际失误，分析增强学生跨化意识的重要性和跨化交际能力滞后的原因，并且提出了一些具体的教学建议。     

Money, real output, and deficit effects of coffee booms in Colombia

This paper develops a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model and uses the recently developed technique of ‘generalized’ impulse response analysis to test the empirical relationships in the Colombian economy between coffee revenues and a set of macro variables. We find that coffee price (revenue) shocks have exerted an important influence on money growth, inflation, and real exchange rates, and the direction of these effects are in line with some of the predictions of traditional Dutch Disease type models. The major difference between our results and the results of Dutch Disease type models arise in the effects of coffee booms on real output. We find that in the time horizon of 5 years after the boom, real output has increased in response to the effects of the coffee boom. The finding that coffee booms can result in positive long-run output effects is an important finding since it contradicts the traditional conclusion of Dutch Disease type models which envision an adverse long-run effect on output. We also find that the long-run effect of coffee booms is to reduce both current account and government deficits. These results illustrate strikingly that the term “Dutch Disease” is an unfortunately pejorative term that obscures the fact that coffee booms need not be viewed as a “disease” but as an extraordinary opportunity to strengthen internal and external balances.