Inference Under Right Censoring in a Discrete Setup

In this article, we consider the right random censoring scheme in a discrete setup when the lifetime and censoring variables are independent and have geometric distributions with means 1/θ₁ and 1/θ₂, respectively. We first obtain the Maximum Likelihood and Method of Moment estimators of the unknown parameters. We also find the Bayes and Posterior Regret Gamma Minimax estimators of the parameters for the two cases when the prior distributions are dependent and independent, assuming a squared error loss function. We then discuss the Proportional Hazard model, and obtain Maximum Likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters and derive the Bayes estimators assuming squared error loss using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.     

安乐死的分类——一个讨论的进路

安乐死问题上聚讼纷纭的不同声音，交织了道德的纷争与政策上的考量。因而适度的区分道德与法律问题是必要的，这其中安乐死的分类成为讨论安乐死问题的一种策略和分析路径。尽管各种分类的道德差异尚不清晰，但其中的一些基础分类已为国外的法律和司法判决所支持，成为探讨安乐死的正当性并逐步获取道德共识的进路，也为法律和公共政策谨慎处理安乐死事案提供了可行的策略。     

Exact inference for a simple step-stress model with competing risks for failure from exponential distribution under Type-II censoring

In reliability analysis, accelerated life-testing allows for gradual increment of stress levels on test units during an experiment. In a special class of accelerated life tests known as step-stress tests, the stress levels increase discretely at pre-fixed time points, and this allows the experimenter to obtain information on the parameters of the lifetime distributions more quickly than under normal operating conditions. Moreover, when a test unit fails, there are often more than one fatal cause for the failure, such as mechanical or electrical. In this article, we consider the simple step-stress model under Type-II censoring when the lifetime distributions of the different risk factors are independently exponentially distributed. Under this setup, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the unknown mean parameters of the different causes under the assumption of a cumulative exposure model. The exact distributions of the MLEs of the parameters are then derived through the use of conditional moment generating functions. Using these exact distributions as well as the asymptotic distributions and the parametric bootstrap method, we discuss the construction of confidence intervals for the parameters and assess their performance through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the methods of inference discussed here with an example.     

立式盘类转子动平衡机箱体有限元分析

旋转电极式电除尘器出口粉尘体积分数小,可降低PM2.5排放量,是目前新建和改造电除尘器的主流方向之 一,其清灰刷关系到旋转电极式电除尘器的除尘效率和使用寿命,为此搭建了清灰刷失效形式和寿命测试试验装置,其 中机械部分为框架结构,电气部分采用PLC控制,由减速变频电机驱动,最后通过ANSYS Workbench对其主要部件进行 了静态和动态性能分析,结果表明：装置框架的动态特性满足设计要求,不会在工作时引起共振,运行后该装置能够满足 试验工作需要。     

Flexible modelling of simultaneously interval censored and truncated time‐to‐event data

This paper deals with the analysis of data from a HET‐CAM^VT experiment. From a statistical perspective, such data yield many challenges. First of all, the data are typically time‐to‐event like data, which are at the same time interval censored and right truncated. In addition, one has to cope with overdispersion as well as clustering. Traditional analysis approaches ignore overdispersion and clustering and summarize the data into a continuous score that can be analysed using simple linear models. In this paper, a novel combined frailty model is developed that simultaneously captures all of the aforementioned statistical challenges posed by the data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parametric Estimation of Menarcheal Age Distribution Based on Recall Data

Menarche, the onset of menstruation, is an important maturational event of female childhood. Most of the studies of age at menarche make use of dichotomous (status quo) data. More information can be harnessed from recall data, but such data are often censored in a informative way. We show that the usual maximum likelihood estimator based on interval censored data, which ignores the informative nature of censoring, can be biased and inconsistent. We propose a parametric estimator of the menarcheal age distribution on the basis of a realistic model of the recall phenomenon. We identify the additional information contained in the recall data and demonstrate theoretically as well as through simulations the advantage of the maximum likelihood estimator based on recall data over that based on status quo data.     

A Comparison of the Performance of Phase II Simple Linear Profile Control Charts when Parameters are Estimated

The standard deviation of the average run length (SDARL) is an important performance metric in studying the performance of control charts with estimated in-control parameters. Only a few studies in the literature, however, have considered this measure when evaluating control chart performance. The current study aims at comparing the in-control performance of three phase II simple linear profile monitoring approaches; namely, those of Kang and Albin (2000), Kim et al. (2003), and Mahmoud et al. (2010). The comparison is performed under the assumption of estimated parameters using the SDARL metric. In general, the simulation results of the current study show that the method of Kim et al. (2003) has better overall statistical performance than the competing methods in terms of SDARL values. Some of the recommended approaches based solely on the usual average run length properties can have poor SDARL performance.     

变迁中国家治理模式的类型分析及其启示

自20世纪70年代以来,一些发达国家的政府组织经历了重大的变革,治理成为许多国家改革的新趋势。作者着重分析了国家治理模式的4种类型,即市场式政府、参与式政府、弹性式政府和解制式政府,其治理精神对于我国的行政改革和治理模式的创新,包括政府治理理念的重建、政府结构的优化以及政府运作方式和过程的创新有着很大的借鉴意义。