“国际单位”：提升文化软实力的路径选择

以广州市白云区“国际单位”项目为案例，分析了“生态、创意、共赢”的可持续发展文化理念对于提升区域文化软实力的作用。     

THE BEHAVIOR OF HEGY TESTS FOR QUARTERLY TIME SERIES WITH SEASONAL MEAN SHIFTS

ABSTRACT

This paper studies the behavior of the HEGY statistics for quarterly data, for seasonal autoregressive unit roots, when the analyzed time series is deterministic seasonal stationary but exhibits a change in the seasonal pattern. We analyze also the HEGY test for the nonseasonal unit root. the data generation process being trend stationary too. Our results show that when the break magnitudes are finite, the HEGY test statistics are not asymptotically biased toward the nonrejection of the seasonal and nonseasonal unit root hypotheses. However, the finite sample power properties may be substantially affected, the behavior of the tests depending on the type of the break.     

挪用公款“归个人使用”的司法解释与立法解释比较

论题对法释[2001]29号与全国人大常委会《关于刑法第384条第一款的解释》两者的效力关系进行了分析,并对构成挪用公款罪的基本要件、何为“以个人名义”、何为以“个人决定以单位名义”以及对不具有法人资格的私营企业、私营合伙企业归类问题进行了探讨。     

Simulating Properties of the Likelihood Ratio Test for a Unit Root in an Explosive Second-Order Autoregression

This paper provides a means of accurately simulating explosive autoregressive processes and uses this method to analyze the distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for an explosive second-order autoregressive process of a unit root. While the standard Dickey-Fuller distribution is known to apply in this case, simulations of statistics in the explosive region are beset by the magnitude of the numbers involved, which cause numerical inaccuracies. This has previously constituted a bar on supporting asymptotic results by means of simulation, and analyzing the finite sample properties of tests in the explosive region.     

Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Multi-Variance Break and Level Shifts That Have Power Against the Piecewise Stationary Alternative

Structural breaks in the level as well as in the volatility have often been exhibited in economic time series. In this paper, we propose new unit root tests when a time series has multiple shifts in its level and the corresponding volatility. The proposed tests are Lagrangian multiplier type tests based on the residual's marginal likelihood which is free from the nuisance mean parameters. The limiting null distributions of the proposed tests are the χ²distributions, and are affected not by the size and the location of breaks but only by the number of breaks.

We set the structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses to relieve a possible vagueness in interpreting test results in empirical work. The null hypothesis implies a unit root process with level shifts and the alternative connotes a stationary process with level shifts. The Monte Carlo simulation shows that our tests are locally more powerful than the OLSE-based tests, and that the powers of our tests, in a fixed time span, remain stable regardless the number of breaks. In our application, we employ the data which are analyzed by Perron (1990), and some results differ from those of Perron's (1990).     

社会转型时期单位体制的政治功能与生存空间

传统的单位体制是计划经济体制下国家履行政治职能和完成社会调控的基本组织制度,在这种制度下组织起来的各级各类单位组织成为社会结构的基本单元。在当前社会转型时期,单位体制自身的政治功能以及由其所塑造的社会结构都发生了深刻的变化,单位体制作为一种传统组织制度已经难以全面满足社会整合与调控的需要。为了保证社会的稳定和发展,需要对单位体制的政治功能演变及其在当前社会中的生存空间进行动态把握,以此促进新型社会调控体系的再造。在简政放权的政治改革背景下,培育介于政府和社会之间的第三领域成为现实的选择。     

Likelihood Inference for Unions of Interacting Discs

Abstract. This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ‐grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analysing Peter Diggle's heather data set, where we discuss the results of simulation‐based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models.     

安徽省金融发展与经济增长的因果关系检验

文章从实证角度研究了安徽省金融发展与经济增长的关系,得出两个主要结论:一是安徽省金融发展是经济增长的格兰杰原因,是单方向的,即金融发展推动了经济增长而经济增长没有促进金融的发展;二是资本市场还不规范,它不构成经济增长的显著影响因素。通过对安徽省经济运行特点的分析,对产生结论的原因给出了合理解释并且提出了相应的政策建议。     

Empirical assessment of present value relations

This paper summarizes the literature on estimation and testing of present value relations. Twenty-four test statistics are illustrated and compared in a simulation experiment utilizing six different data generation models. The test statistics are calculated for actual Standard and Poor's 500 annual stock price and dividend data, and the results are interpreted in light of the Monte Carlo experiments.