Horizontal synthetic estimation: a strategy for estimating small area health related characteristics

It would be difficult to overestimate the general importance of relevant, detailed and timely small area data for health planning and research. However, the requisites of relevance, detail and timeliness are difficult — in some cases impossible — to satisfy. In the following discussion we sketch an approach for providing small area data useful for health planners. At this time our major concern is a comprehensive approach to estimates for small areas. The particular models and estimation procedures which we will present are adopted primarily for their heuristic value. They provide a convenient and not overly complex means of discussing important aspects of a comprehensive approach to small area estimation. Our objective is to delineate in a constructive fashion the broad parameters of a comprehensive approach to the estimation of health related small area data.     

论农业生产中实施"斤粮成本逆控"管理

斤粮成本逆控管理是依据系统论和控制论的观点,以科学预测农产品市场价格为基础,倒推出斤粮目标成本,在各项生产经营费用发生以前和斤粮成本形成的各阶段,对各种影响斤粮成本的因素和条件所采取的控制措施.实施斤粮成本逆控管理对于农业商品生产者适应市场化新形势,有效化解市场风险,实现农业增产增收增效,意义重大.在农业生产中逐步推广和普及斤粮成本逆控管理,是我国农业转变发展观念、创新发展模式、提高发展质量的一条希望之路.     

基于奇异值分解去势的非线性趋势序列单位根检验研究

 如何克服ADF与PP单位根检验法对非线性趋势平稳序列的伪检验,提高单位根检验的功效,是非平稳时间序列分析的重要问题。本文基于奇异值分解的思路,构造出检验非平稳时间序列单位根的SVD-RMA检验法,此方法将时间序列的趋势项与干扰项分离,然后用递归均值调整法对干扰项进行检验。仿真实验表明,SVD-RMA法对线性与非线性趋势、甚至结构突变过程的检验功效都非常好;对非线性趋势平稳的检验而言,SVD-RMA检验得到正确结论的可能性要远远好于ADF与PP检验。     

"准弱势群体":对东北老工业基地下岗职工的再思考

弱势群体的存在是社会结构转型过程中的必然现象,它一直是社会学界关注的热点.我国正处于社会结构转型和经济体制转轨时期,从全国来看,弱势群体的形成有其共同特点和原因,就东北老工业基地来说,又有所不同.它具有"准弱势群体"的特征,这种特征与东北老工业基地特定的背景和深层的社会原因密切相关.     

DISTRIBUTION OF THE LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATOR IN A FIRST-ORDER AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

This paper investigates the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in a first-order autoregressive model. A uniform asymptotic expansion for the distribution applicable to both stationary and nonstationary cases is obtained. Accuracy of the approximation to the distribution by a first few terms of this expansion is then investigated. It is found that the leading term of this expansion approximates well the distribution. The approximation is, in almost all cases, accurate to the second decimal place throughout the distribution. In the literature, there exist a number of approximations to this distribution which are specifically designed to apply in some special cases of this model. The present approximation compares favorably with those approximations and in fact, its accuracy is, with almost no exception, as good as or better than these other approximations. Convenience of numerical computations seems also to favor the present approximations over the others. An application of the finding is illustrated with examples.     

A non-stationary panel data investigation of the unemployment–crime relationship

Many empirical studies of the economics of crime focus solely on the determinants thereof, and do not consider the dynamic and cross-sectional properties of their data. As a response to this, the current paper offers an in-depth analysis of this issue using data covering 21 Swedish counties from 1975 to 2010. The results suggest that the crimes considered are non-stationary, and that this cannot be attributed to county-specific disparities alone, but that there are also a small number of common stochastic trends to which groups of counties tend to revert. In an attempt to explain these common stochastic trends, we look for a long-run cointegrated relationship between unemployment and crime. Overall, the results do not support cointegration, and suggest that previous findings of a significant unemployment–crime relationship might be spurious.     

论《单位》和《一地鸡毛》的成长主题

刘震云的小说《单位》和《一地鸡毛》是单位题材成长小说的经典。主人公小林从刚入单位的大学生逐渐成长为合格的单位人,其中蕴含着成长主题:成长的主体经过他人的命名和自我的定位,认识到"成长"在单位中的必要性以及它与改善私人生活的关联,逐渐由被动改造到主动改造。在这一"成长"历程中,小林通过对单位等级秩序的认同而逐渐成长,单位也通过特有成长仪式而接纳考验合格的他。     

光驱常见故障产生原因与解决方法

本文主要介绍光驱常见的不识盘、不读盘、读盘差、不出盒、出盒异常等十种软硬故障产生的原因及解决方法。     

Aliternative methods for estimating long-run responses with applications to australian import demand

This paper compares and contrasts a number of single-equation and systems estimators of long-run responses with application to a three-variable import demand model. Two variants of Box and Tiao's (1977) canonical estimator are developed and associated tests for the number of cointegrating vectors are introduced. A simulation study indicates that, while both Box-Tiao estimators have empirical distributions with fatter tails than the normal, there is evidence that the incidence of extreme values is even greater with Johansen's (1988) ML procedure.     

磁化黑洞吸积盘的磁耦合过程

对磁化黑洞吸积盘的提能机制之一磁耦合(MC)过程作了详细的讨论,重点分析了MC过程的等效电路模型,在满足磁通守恒条件下引入Kerr度规,得到了黑洞视界面与吸积盘之间的一种更为合理的映射关系。