A discrete analogue of odd Weibull-G family of distributions: properties,classical and Bayesian estimation with applications to count data

In the statistical literature, several discrete distributions have been developed so far. However, in this progressive technological era, the data generated from different fields is getting complicated day by day, making it difficult to analyze this real data through the various discrete distributions available in the existing literature. In this context, we have proposed a new flexible family of discrete models named discrete odd Weibull-G (DOW-G) family. Its several impressive distributional characteristics are derived. A key feature of the proposed family is its failure rate function that can take a variety of shapes for distinct values of the unknown parameters, like decreasing, increasing, constant, J-, and bathtub-shaped. Furthermore, the presented family not only adequately captures the skewed and symmetric data sets, but it can also provide a better fit to equi-, over-, under-dispersed data. After producing the general class, two particular distributions of the DOW-G family are extensively studied. The parameters estimation of the proposed family, are explored by the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian approach. A compact Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to assess the behavior of the estimation methods. Finally, we have explained the usefulness of the proposed family by using two different real data sets.     

电子市场价格分散、信息价值与效率:多视角的分析框架

电子市场是集合买卖双方交换价格和产品信息的跨组织信息系统,已成为撮合交易的重要虚拟场所,其对有形市场的影响力日益彰显,引起理论界和实务界的密切关注.本文将电子市场价格分散、信息价值与效率问题放在同一分析框架下研究,从不同的视角审视电子市场现存文献的解释力度;指出电子市场价格分散现象是多种因素综合作用的结果,消费者的搜寻异质、买方偏好(品牌、信任与忠诚度等因素)、服务质量、市场结构特征等多变量共同决定了电子市场的价格分散度、信息价值及效率大小;最后,提出了未来电子市场的研究方向,即通过价格比较购物技术扩散模型的引入,建立集影响电子市场价格的多变量于一体的理论分析框架,探讨电子市场价格分散及与其相关联的信息价值测度和市场效率等基础理论问题.     

城市群高质量发展背景下人口聚散规律和驱动因素研究

人口与经济协调发展是城市群发展方式更易实现的目标。影响城市群人口聚散的驱动因素有些方面与城市类似:可分为由资源环境决定的内在驱动因素和政策导向、公共服务水平等主导的外在驱动因素。在市场与政府的共同作用下,内在与外在要素分别通过内链与外链形成两条相互影响的驱动路径共同影响人口聚散；有些则不同:城市群内各城市间可通过“规模借用”与“功能借用”实现要素的交换与替代,更易于克服内在和外在驱动因素壁垒,整体实现资本、人力资源等要素的更高配置效率。在对城市群人口聚散规律及驱动因素进行辨析的基础上,利用生产函数构建数理模型,引入资源要素与政策要素,并以首都都市圈中“一核两翼”结构为例进行了仿真分析,探究各驱动要素对人口聚散的作用强度与实现路径。实现人口疏解与承接的关键是提高城市间要素的可替代性与驱动弹性,城市群间可通过合作机制(借用规模)实现要素的交换与替代。在此基础上,提出促进城市群人口数量和分布合理化的思路:正确认识城市群人口承载力与城市功能定位的内涵；以高质量发展战略为契机,强化市场作用,以产业合理布局带动城市间人口合理分布；改革管理体制,降低省际边界障碍和户籍障碍,推进城市群内部的公共服务与基础设施水平均等化,促进形成与城市群和群中各城市功能定位相匹配的人口聚散形式。     

Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity

We construct and estimate an equilibrium search model with on–the–job–search. Firms make take–it–or–leave–it wage offers to workers conditional on their characteristics and they can respond to the outside job offers received by their employees. Unobserved worker productive heterogeneity is introduced in the form of cross–worker differences in a “competence” parameter. On the other side of the market, firms also are heterogeneous with respect to their marginal productivity of labor. The model delivers a theory of steady–state wage dispersion driven by heterogenous worker abilities and firm productivities, as well as by matching frictions. The structural model is estimated using matched employer and employee French panel data. The exogenous distributions of worker and firm heterogeneity components are nonparametrically estimated. We use this structural estimation to provide a decomposition of cross–employee wage variance. We find that the share of the cross–sectional wage variance that is explained by person effects varies across skill groups. Specifically, this share lies close to 40% for high–skilled white collars, and quickly decreases to 0% as the observed skill level decreases. The contribution of market imperfections to wage dispersion is typically around 50%.     

如何削弱网络口碑离散对购买意愿的负面影响: 口碑分布呈现方式的讨论

网络口碑离散反映了已有评论者有关产品态度褒贬不一的程度,这种不确定性风险的传达将对消费者的购买意愿带来负面影响。本文基于已有网络口碑离散归因选择模型结论,结合双系统理论补充了分析式系统对有关口碑离散积极归因选择的促进作用,运用元认知理论检验了我国现行主流网络平台典型的三种口碑分布呈现方式对有关口碑离散积极归因选择的调节作用。本文通过2个眼动实验,共计329名被试的实证分析发现:(1)分析式系统的激活可以有效促使消费者做出有关口碑离散积极的归因选择;(2)当口碑分布呈现方式为适度复杂时,分析式系统的激活将有利于消费者在有关口碑离散的综合判断归因中做出了积极的归因选择;但并不是所有能引起信息不流畅性感知的口碑分布呈现方式都能显著影响分析式系统激活与有关网络口碑离散的积极归因选择间的关系,当口碑分布呈现方式带来的认知负荷未满足消费者的认知需要(简单呈现方式)或者超过了消费者的承载上限(非常复杂呈现方式)时,分析式系统的激活均对有关网络口碑离散积极的归因选择无显著影响,最终无法起到削弱网络口碑离散负面影响的作用(3)即使在引入平均星级水平和产品属性的讨论后,上述研究结论仍成立。本文研究结论不仅补充了网络口碑离散负面影响的削弱机制及削弱策略,而且对营销者进行网络口碑管理提供了具体且可行的参考。