Power Enhancement in High‐Dimensional Cross‐Sectional Tests

We propose a novel technique to boost the power of testing a high‐dimensional vector H : θ = 0 against sparse alternatives where the null hypothesis is violated by only a few components. Existing tests based on quadratic forms such as the Wald statistic often suffer from low powers due to the accumulation of errors in estimating high‐dimensional parameters. More powerful tests for sparse alternatives such as thresholding and extreme value tests, on the other hand, require either stringent conditions or bootstrap to derive the null distribution and often suffer from size distortions due to the slow convergence. Based on a screening technique, we introduce a “power enhancement component,” which is zero under the null hypothesis with high probability, but diverges quickly under sparse alternatives. The proposed test statistic combines the power enhancement component with an asymptotically pivotal statistic, and strengthens the power under sparse alternatives. The null distribution does not require stringent regularity conditions, and is completely determined by that of the pivotal statistic. The proposed methods are then applied to testing the factor pricing models and validating the cross‐sectional independence in panel data models.     

Testing for two states in a hidden Markov model

The authors consider hidden Markov models (HMMs) whose latent process has m ≥ 2 states and whose state‐dependent distributions arise from a general one‐parameter family. They propose a test of the hypothesis m = 2. Their procedure is an extension to HMMs of the modified likelihood ratio statistic proposed by Chen, Chen & Kalbfleisch (2004) for testing two states in a finite mixture. The authors determine the asymptotic distribution of their test under the hypothesis m = 2 and investigate its finite‐sample properties in a simulation study. Their test is based on inference for the marginal mixture distribution of the HMM. In order to illustrate the additional difficulties due to the dependence structure of the HMM, they show how to test general regular hypotheses on the marginal mixture of HMMs via a quasi‐modified likelihood ratio. They also discuss two applications.     

Wald检验不一致性的微分几何解释及改进

Wald检验对于等价的零假设中不同形式的表达式在有限样本的情况下缺乏一致性,而从微分几何的角度来解释这一现象,并发现由于Wald统计量是一个混杂的不恰当的几何量,从而对不同的含参数的等价表达式不具有一致性。同时还展示了芬斯拉（Finsler）测地统计量如何能较为简便的计算出来、它在线性回归模型中的非线性约束条件下如何应用以及两者在什么情况下保持一致,并提出了一种解决Wald检验不一致性的思路。     

Ranking responses in multiple-choice questions

In many studies, the questionnaire is a common tool for surveying. There are two kinds of questions designed: single-choice questions and multiple-choice questions. For single-choice questions, the methodology for analyzing it has been provided in the literature. However, the analyses of multiple-choice questions are not established as in depth as those for single-choice questions. Recently, there has been a lot of literature published about testing the marginal independence between two questions involving at least one multiple-choice question. However, another important problem regarding this topic is to rank the responses in a multiple-choice question. The issue is whether there are significant differences in the popularity of particular responses within the same question. In this paper, methodologies for ranking responses are proposed.     

Likelihood Ratio Type Statistics for Repeated Measures Designs with Heterogeneous Covariance Matrices

Because of their simplicity, Wald statistics are typically used in complex experimental designs. Likelihood ratio statistics in factorial designs are more flexible than Wald statistics in the sense of adapting to non-saturated designs by fitting only as many parameters as the model calls for. This leads to a significant gain in power. Here we propose likelihood ratio type statistics for testing hypotheses in repeated measures designs with heterogeneous covariance matrices, and derive their asymptotic distribution in one general theorem that does not require normality or even continuity of the responses. Simulation studies demonstrate their advantages over the Wald statistics.     

Simultaneous confidence bands and regions for log-location-scale distributions with censored data

In many areas of application, especially life testing and reliability, it is often of interest to estimate an unknown cumulative distribution (cdf). A simultaneous confidence band (SCB) of the cdf can be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of the estimated cdf over the entire range of the distribution. Cheng and Iles [1983. Confidence bands for cumulative distribution functions of continuous random variables. Technometrics 25 (1), 77–86] presented an approach to construct an SCB for the cdf of a continuous random variable. For the log-location-scale family of distributions, they gave explicit forms for the upper and lower boundaries of the SCB based on expected information. In this article, we extend the work of Cheng and Iles [1983. Confidence bands for cumulative distribution functions of continuous random variables. Technometrics 25 (1), 77–86] in several directions. We study the SCBs based on local information, expected information, and estimated expected information for both the “cdf method” and the “quantile method.” We also study the effects of exceptional cases where a simple SCB does not exist. We describe calibration of the bands to provide exact coverage for complete data and type II censoring and better approximate coverage for other kinds of censoring. We also discuss how to extend these procedures to regression analysis.     

On the relationship between the matrix operators,vech and vecd

We introduce a matrix operator, which we call “vecd” operator. This operator stacks up “diagonals” of a symmetric matrix. This operator is more convenient for some statistical analyses than the commonly used “vech” operator. We show an explicit relationship between the vecd and vech operators. Using this relationship, various properties of the vecd operator are derived. As applications of the vecd operator, we derive concise and explicit expressions of the Wald and score tests for equal variances of a multivariate normal distribution and for the diagonality of variance coefficient matrices in a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model, respectively.     

THE GEOMETRY OF SPECIFICATION ERROR

This paper discusses the traditional specification problem from a geometric (or co-ordinate-free) viewpoint. While the traditional emphasis is on the properties of estimators, the geometric approach also allows an easy development of corresponding results for inference. Errors arising from artificial inclusion or exclusion of variables are considered in terms of augmentations or restrictions on a given maintained hypothesis, and this allows a corresponding interpretation of tests based upon the Wald and Lagrange Multiplier Principles. It is demonstrated that biases arising from incorrect exclusion of variables do not invalidate the traditional F-test.     

Testing the equality of correlation matrices when sample correlation matrices are dependent

We consider the situation in which a 2m×2m$2m\times 2m$ correlation matrix is naturally partitioned into a 2×2$2\times 2$ form, where each submatrix is m×m$m\times m$ and we wish to test for the equality of the two correlation matrices appearing on the diagonal of the partitioned form. Standard tests for the equality of correlation matrices do not apply since the corresponding sample correlation matrices are correlated. We obtain Wald statistics under the assumption of multivariate normality as well as extensions that apply to elliptical distributions.