Serial dependence and regression of Poisson INARMA models

Time series of counts occur in many fields of practice, with the Poisson distribution as a popular choice for the marginal process distribution. A great variety of serial dependence structures of stationary count processes can be modelled by the INARMA family. In this article, we propose a new approach to the INMA(q) family in general, including previously known results as special cases. In the particular case of Poisson marginals, we will derive new results concerning regression properties and the serial dependence structure of INAR(1) and INMA(q) models. Finally, we present explicit expressions for the distribution of jumps in such processes.     

Bayesian System Reliability Prediction

In system reliability studies a common problem is the coherent assessment of system reliability, based on generic database information from components and on failure data from a system and its components in a common, but unknown, environment. A solution to this problem is given.     

农村社会养老保险制度变迁路径依赖及创新

在农村传统养老保障制度安排出现不均衡的情况下 ,我国政府从 2 0世纪 80年代中期开始推行农村社会养老保险制度改革。然而 ,由于新供给制度的路径受初始制度安排的影响 ,制度变迁显示出强烈的路径依赖特征。如何退出这种非绩效的闭锁状态 ,是建立现代农村社会养老保险制度的关键。     

Stationary bootstrapping for panel cointegration tests under cross-sectional dependence

Stationary bootstrapping is applied to panel cointegration tests which are based on the ordinary least-squares estimator and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimator of the residual unit root. Large sample validity of stationary bootstrapping is established. A finite sample experiment reveals that size performances of the bootstrap tests are much less sensitive to cross-sectional correlation than those of existing tests and a test based on the SUR estimator has substantially better power than existing tests.     

民族区域新闻传播事业的历史性跨越和期待——关于西藏新闻传播事业的调查

本文以实地考察和解读文献资料相结合的方式,近距离、多视角地运载西藏当前新闻传播的整体状况做出基本梳理和评价,对其作为民族区域新闻传播事业的价值、经验和缺陷进行了宏观把握.文章的资料性和理性评判,对西藏新闻传播事业的发展和研究具有参考价值.     

城市农民工社会保障问题的思考

城市化是有着丰富涵义的社会变迁过程。城市农民工作为我国城市化进程中的一个特定部分,由于体制、环境以及自身素质等方面因素,使得他们对于城市知觉处于一种普遍的焦虑之中。他们的社会保障由于缺乏应有的制度安排,而成为城市中的弱势族群。关注城市农民工的生存状况,妥善解决农民工的社会保障是解决当前中国农民工问题的关键所在。     

困境中的校园边缘群体——对长沙市高校自考生群体的实证研究

本文从实证的视角,通过在长沙市高校的典型调查,研究一个亟需关注、却易被忽略的特殊大学生群体(高校在读自考生)的生活状况及发展问题,运用翔实的数据、资料,对其发展阻力、成才途径、规律进行深入地阐释。这一探索性实证研究开辟了大学生研究的新领域、新视角。     

妇联组织官办性的成因分析:一种路径依赖

妇联作为中国最大的维护妇女权益的群团组织,按其自身的发展逻辑而言,应是独立于政府的自治性组织。但当前我国的妇联组织在其运作过程中仍存在着较强的"官办性"。新制度经济学的路径依赖理论可以对这一现象作出解释。该理论认为,制度变迁容易形成路径依赖现象的原因一是既得利益集团的阻挠,二是非正式制度安排的影响。妇联官办性的成因从本质上讲亦是既得利益团体和非正式制度安排导致的路径依赖,而摆脱官办性带来的制度低效则需要政府和妇联组织的协同努力。     

Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems

The likelihood ratio test for cointegrating rank is analyzed for partial (or conditional) systems in the vector autoregressive error-correction model. Under the assumption of weak exogeneity for the cointegrating parameters, the asymptotic distributions are given and tables of critical values are provided. A discussion is given of some of the assumptions of the model, why they are needed, and how they are tested.     

90年代日本危机与日本文化诸模式

日本90年代的危机不仅与经济运行周期有关 ,而且与日本人的文化价值观、行为模式有直接的联系。本文从暧昧的责任体制、内外分明的集团主义文化、依赖性心理结构等方面对这场危机进行深层次探讨