基于行政记录人口普查方法的国际比较

开展基于行政记录的人口普查被视为有效破解传统人口普查难题的途径之一,亦是顺应大数据时代充分挖掘人口行政记录资源的必然之选。本文较系统地阐述了基于行政记录人口普查方法的基本框架,尝试对“完全模式”人口普查和“组合模式”人口普查的实施步骤进行解析。基于此,本文选择芬兰、奥地利、瑞士、荷兰四个国家,分普查基本情况、行政记录类型选择和基本记录库形成、已存在统计记录系统基本结构、专门组织的抽样调查设计、不同系统间的链接途径、新人口统计信息质量评估方法等六个维度,对实施基于行政记录的人口普查方法进行了国家比较。     

Random Weighting Estimation for Quantile Processes and Negatively Associated Samples

This article presents new theories of random weighting estimation for quantile processes and negatively associated samples. Under the condition that X ₁, X ₂,…, X _n are independent random variables with a common distribution, the consistency for random weighting estimation of quantile processes is rigorously proved. When X ₁, X ₂,…, X _n are not independent of each other, random weighting estimation of sample mean is established for negatively associated samples.     

抽样调查中的权数问题研究

用样本数据推断总体,权数的作用十分重要。使用权数,不仅能将样本还原到总体,还能调整样本结构,使其与总体结构相一致,因此正确的使用权数是我们进行统计推断的基础。本文系统阐述了抽样调查分析中权数的获取过程,以及后期对初始权数调整过程。由于权数是把双刃剑,在提高精度的同时,有可能提高估计量的误差,本文提出了对权数进行评估的方法,研讨如何对权数进行控制,最后根据我国综合社会调查项目（CGSS）的数据进行实证分析,按照所给方法不仅能提高估计精度,而且能够降低抽样推断中的权效应。     

Virtual Communities of Practice in Social Group Work Education

Virtual communities of practice are an international phenomenon in social work around the world. However, they are rare in social work in the United States. This article describes an online community, the Social Group Work Commons, designed to complement courses in social group work. Using Web 2.0 Internet tools, such as blogs, discussion boards, and chats, the developers employed group work skills to help students establish a vehicle for mutual support as students struggled to integrate course content in their field placements. Examples from course blogs indicate students became increasingly intimate in their online exchanges over time and readily provided each other support in applying course content in their practice.     

基于Web方式的“数据结构”课程教学

针对"数据结构"课程传统教学模式存在的问题及原因,结合课程特点,利用Web网络化平台,对课程内容进行组织和提炼,提出了基于Web方式的"数据结构"课程教学体系并应用于教学实践,取得较好的教学效果。     

第二代互联网的民意价值研究

以用户参与为本质的第二代互联网(Web2.0),以其开放性、真实性、自组织性、聚合性等特性为网络民意表达注入了新元素。相对于第一代互联网,第二代互联网赋予民意表达的价值主要体现在真实与聚合两个方面。真实性强化了网络民意的理性程度,聚合性有效提高信噪比,从而缓解了网络民意过于零散的状态。     

新中国政府统计调查制度的建立、发展和改革六十年

统计调查制度是统计工作的基础和规范。目前我国已建立起一个庞大的统计调查制度体系,从内容上讲,包括国民经济核算体系、统计指标体系、统计标准体系、统计调查方法体系和统计调查制度管理体系。文章首先就新中国政府统计成立60年以来我国上述五个体系的建立和发展历程进行了回顾和梳理,然后就我国政府统计调查制度的主要特点及推行中获得的有益经验进行了总结,最后指出现行统计调查制度中存在的主要问题和改革的方向。     

Sample size determination for testing equality in frequency data under an incomplete block crossover design

When there are more than two treatments under comparison, we may consider the use of the incomplete block crossover design (IBCD) to save the number of patients needed for a parallel groups design and reduce the duration of a crossover trial. We develop an asymptotic procedure for simultaneously testing equality of two treatments versus a control treatment (or placebo) in frequency data under the IBCD with two periods. We derive a sample size calculation procedure for the desired power of detecting the given treatment effects at a nominal-level and suggest a simple ad hoc adjustment procedure to improve the accuracy of the sample size determination when the resulting minimum required number of patients is not large. We employ Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed test, the accuracy of the sample size calculation procedure, and that with the simple ad hoc adjustment suggested here. We use the data taken as a part of a crossover trial comparing the number of exacerbations between using salbutamol or salmeterol and a placebo in asthma patients to illustrate the sample size calculation procedure.     

Double sampling |S| control chart with variable sample size and variable sampling interval

This study presents a control chart for monitoring shifts in the covariance matrix of a multivariate normally distributed process. This chart combines the double sampling, variable sample size and variable sampling interval features, and is called the DSVSSI |S| chart. A Markov chain approach is developed to design the DSVSSI |S| chart, by minimizing the average time to signal (ATS), for a specified shift size in the covariance matrix. The DSVSSI |S| chart has a better ATS performance compared to other existing charts. An example is given to illustrate the operation of the DSVSSI |S| chart.