Conceptual, computational and inferential benefits of the missing data perspective in applied and theoretical statistical problems

This article advocates the following perspective: When confronting a scientific problem, the field of statistics enters by viewing the problem as one where the scientific answer could be calculated if some missing data, hypothetical or real, were available. Thus, statistical effort should be devoted to three steps:

Use of simulation to compare the performance of minimization with stratified blocked randomization

Minimization is an alternative method to stratified permuted block randomization, which may be more effective at balancing treatments when there are many strata. However, its use in the regulatory setting for industry trials remains controversial, primarily due to the difficulty in interpreting conventional asymptotic statistical tests under restricted methods of treatment allocation. We argue that the use of minimization should be critically evaluated when designing the study for which it is proposed. We demonstrate by example how simulation can be used to investigate whether minimization improves treatment balance compared with stratified randomization, and how much randomness can be incorporated into the minimization before any balance advantage is no longer retained. We also illustrate by example how the performance of the traditional model-based analysis can be assessed, by comparing the nominal test size with the observed test size over a large number of simulations. We recommend that the assignment probability for the minimization be selected using such simulations.     

Detecting multiple confounders

This paper proposes an approach for detecting multiple confounders which combines the advantages of two causal models, the potential outcome model and the causal diagram. The approach need not use a complete causal diagram as long as it is known that a known covariate set Z$Z$ contains the parent set of the exposure E  . On the other hand, whether a covariate is or not a confounder may depend on its categorization. We introduce uniform non-confounding which implies non-confounding in any subpopulation defined by the interval of a covariate (or any pooled level for a discrete covariate). We show that the conditions in Miettinen and Cook's criteria for non-confounding also imply uniform non-confounding. Further we present an algorithm for deleting non-confounders from the potential confounder set Z$Z$, which extends Greenland et al.'s [1999a. Causal diagrams for epidemiologic research. Epidemiology 10, 37–48] approach by splitting Z$Z$ into a series of potential confounder subsets. We also discuss conditions for non-confounding bias in the subpopulations in which we are interested, where the subpopulations may be defined by non-confounders.     

Optimal step-stress testing for progressively Type-I censored data from exponential distribution

In this paper, a k  -step-stress accelerated life-testing is considered with an equal step duration τ$\tau$. For small to moderate sample sizes, a practical modification is made to the model previously considered by Gouno et al. [2004. Optimal step-stress test under progressive Type-I censoring. IEEE Trans. Reliability 53, 383–393] in order to guarantee a feasible k  -step-stress test under progressive Type-I censoring, and the optimal τ$\tau$ is determined under this model. Next, we discuss the determination of optimal τ$\tau$ under the condition that the step-stress test proceeds to the k  -th stress level, and the efficiency of this conditional inference is compared to that of the previous case. In all cases considered, censoring is allowed at each point of stress change (viz., iτ$i\tau$, i=1,2,…,k$i=1,2,\dots ,k$). The determination of optimal τ$\tau$ is discussed under C-optimality, D-optimality, and A-optimality criteria. We investigate in detail the case of progressively Type-I right censored data from an exponential distribution with a single stress variable.     

Analysing direct effects in randomized trials with secondary interventions: an application to human immunodeficiency virus prevention trials

Summary.  The 'Methods for improving reproductive health in Africa' trial is a recently completed randomized trial that investigated the effect of diaphragm and lubricant gel use in reducing infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among susceptible women. 5045 women were randomly assigned to either the active treatment arm or not. Additionally, all subjects in both arms received intensive condom counselling and provision, the 'gold standard' HIV prevention barrier method. There was much lower reported use of condoms in the intervention arm than in the control arm, making it difficult to answer important public health questions based solely on the intention-to-treat analysis. We adapt an analysis technique from causal inference to estimate the 'direct effects' of assignment to the diaphragm arm, adjusting for use of condoms in an appropriate sense. Issues raised in the trial apply to other trials of HIV prevention methods, some of which are currently being conducted or designed.     

Finding an unknown number of multivariate outliers

Summary.  We use the forward search to provide robust Mahalanobis distances to detect the presence of outliers in a sample of multivariate normal data. Theoretical results on order statistics and on estimation in truncated samples provide the distribution of our test statistic. We also introduce several new robust distances with associated distributional results. Comparisons of our procedure with tests using other robust Mahalanobis distances show the good size and high power of our procedure. We also provide a unification of results on correction factors for estimation from truncated samples.     

Estimating network properties from snowball sampled data

This article addresses the estimation of topological network parameters from data obtained with a snowball sampling design. An approximate expression for the probability of a vertex to be included in the sample is derived. Based on this sampling distribution, estimators for the mean degree, the degree correlation, and the clustering coefficient are proposed. The performance of these estimators and their sensitivity with respect to the response rate are validated through Monte Carlo simulations on several test networks. Our approach has no complex computational requirements and is straightforward to apply to real-world survey data. In a snowball sample design, each respondent is typically enquired only once. Different from the widely used estimator for Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS), which assumes sampling with replacement, the proposed approach relies on sampling without replacement and is thus also applicable for large sample fractions. From the simulation experiments, we conclude that the estimation quality decreases with increasing variance of the network degree distribution. Yet, if the degree distribution is not to broad, our approach results in good estimates for the mean degree and the clustering coefficient, which, moreover, are almost independent from the response rate. The estimates for the degree correlation are of moderated quality.     

关联理论对《龙须沟》中隐喻现象的解释力

本文首先介绍了关联理论对会话理解的基本观点 ,评述了三种隐喻研究的角度 ,发现语义和语用角度的理论存在缺陷 ,而认知角度则颇具新意。此后 ,利用关联理论对《龙须沟》中词汇隐喻、短语隐喻、句子隐喻的典型例子进行了详尽分析 ,证明关联理论对隐喻现象有较强的解释力     

自发特质推理研究的回顾与展望

自发特质推理是指个体在没有特定目的甚至在完全没有意识到的情况下,根据他人的行为信息推论其人格特质、形成印象的过程。国外对自发特质推理现象的理论解释有直觉模型和过程模型,用语义启动和图形启动两种范型加以研究,结果显示,知觉者的练习、年龄、意识目的、人格特点及被知觉者的特点都会影响自发特质推理。自发特质推理的研究在人格评价、职业面试等方面有广阔的应用前景。     

从社会认知的角度谈新闻敏感

新闻敏感是记者特有的捕捉新闻的本领 ,是记者的新闻生命。新闻敏感产生的过程就是记者的社会认知过程。从社会认知的角度探讨新闻敏感的心理机制 ,分析新闻敏感和社会认知的关系 ,图式对社会认知及新闻敏感的影响 ,并提出了一些提高和增强新闻敏感的方法