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991.
施展 《上海理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,24(1):57-59
根据模糊推理理论,提出了建立模式分类模糊决策规则的方法,该方法可适于各种非线性决策面的模式分类。通过仿真试验证明了该方法的有效性。 相似文献
992.
Interval censoring appears when the event of interest is only known to have occurred within a random time interval. Estimation
and hypothesis testing procedures for interval-censored data are surveyed. We distinguish between frequentist and Bayesian
approaches. Computational aspects for every proposed method are described and solutions with S-Plus, whenever are feasible,
are mentioned. Three real data sets are analyzed. 相似文献
993.
Yuguo Chen Junyi Xie Jun S. Liu 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2005,67(2):199-217
Summary. Motivated by the statistical inference problem in population genetics, we present a new sequential importance sampling with resampling strategy. The idea of resampling is key to the recent surge of popularity of sequential Monte Carlo methods in the statistics and engin-eering communities, but existing resampling techniques do not work well for coalescent-based inference problems in population genetics. We develop a new method called 'stopping-time resampling', which allows us to compare partially simulated samples at different stages to terminate unpromising partial samples and to multiply promising samples early on. To illustrate the idea, we first apply the new method to approximate the solution of a Dirichlet problem and the likelihood function of a non-Markovian process. Then we focus on its application in population genetics. All our examples show that the new resampling method can significantly improve the computational efficiency of existing sequential importance sampling methods. 相似文献
994.
Simple heterogeneity variance estimation for meta-analysis 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Kurex Sidik Jeffrey N. Jonkman 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2005,54(2):367-384
Summary. A simple method of estimating the heterogeneity variance in a random-effects model for meta-analysis is proposed. The estimator that is presented is simple and easy to calculate and has improved bias compared with the most common estimator used in random-effects meta-analysis, particularly when the heterogeneity variance is moderate to large. In addition, it always yields a non-negative estimate of the heterogeneity variance, unlike some existing estimators. We find that random-effects inference about the overall effect based on this heterogeneity variance estimator is more reliable than inference using the common estimator, in terms of coverage probability for an interval estimate. 相似文献
995.
It is common practice to design a survey with a large number of strata. However, in this case the usual techniques for variance estimation can be inaccurate. This paper proposes a variance estimator for estimators of totals. The method proposed can be implemented with standard statistical packages without any specific programming, as it involves simple techniques of estimation, such as regression fitting. 相似文献
996.
Recent changes in European family dynamics are often linked to common latent trends of economic and ideational change. Using
Bayesian factor analysis, we extract three latent variables from eight socio-demographic indicators related to family formation,
dissolution, and gender system and collected on 19 European countries within four periods (1970, 1980, 1990, 1998). The flexibility
of the Bayesian approach allows us to introduce an innovative temporal factor model, adding the temporal dimension to the
traditional factorial analysis. The underlying structure of the Bayesian factor model proposed reflects our idea of an autoregressive
pattern in the latent variables relative to adjacent time periods. The results we obtain are consistent with current interpretations
in European demographic trends. 相似文献
997.
A general framework is presented for Bayesian inference of multivariate time series exhibiting long-range dependence. The series are modelled using a vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving-average (VARFIMA) process, which can capture both short-term correlation structure and long-range dependence characteristics of the individual series, as well as interdependence and feedback relationships between the series. To facilitate a sampling-based Bayesian approach, the exact joint posterior density is derived for the parameters, in a form that is computationally simpler than direct evaluation of the likelihood, and a modified Gibbs sampling algorithm is used to generate samples from the complete conditional distribution associated with each parameter. The paper also shows how an approximate form of the joint posterior density may be used for long time series. The procedure is illustrated using sea surface temperatures measured at three locations along the central California coast. These series are believed to be interdependent due to similarities in local atmospheric conditions at the different locations, and previous studies have found that they exhibit ‘long memory’ when studied individually. The approach adopted here permits investigation of the effects on model estimation of the interdependence and feedback relationships between the series. 相似文献
998.
Exact Non-Parametric Confidence, Prediction and Tolerance Intervals with Progressive Type-II Censoring 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Olivier Guilbaud 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2004,31(2):265-281
Abstract. This article extends recent results [Scand. J. Statist. 28 (2001) 699] about exact non-parametric inferences based on order statistics with progressive type-II censoring. The extension lies in that non-parametric inferences are now covered where the dependence between involved order statistics cannot be circumvented. These inferences include: (a) tolerance intervals containing at least a specified proportion of the parent distribution, (b) prediction intervals containing at least a specified number of observations in a future sample, and (c) outer and/or inner confidence intervals for a quantile interval of the parent distribution. The inferences are valid for any parent distribution with continuous distribution function. The key result shows how the probability of an event involving k dependent order statistics that are observable/uncensored with progressive type-II censoring can be represented as a mixture with known weights of corresponding probabilities involving k dependent ordinary order statistics. Further applications/developments concerning exact Kolmogorov-type confidence regions are indicated. 相似文献
999.
The authors study estimation of the total number of classes present in multiple overlapping populations. They show that the number of classes is identifiable in a nonparametric mixture model of multivariate Poisson densities. Unusual phenomena occur in both point estimation and confidence inference for the parameter defined as the odds of a class being unidentified in the data. Consequently only one‐sided confidence intervals are available for the number of classes. 相似文献
1000.
Aspects of Change for Management in the Internet Environment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sebastian A. Sora Samuel M. Natale 《International Journal of Value-Based Management》1997,10(3):213-219
This paper will explore the challenge that technology will deliver to management at both the tactical and strategic level.
Changes in communication, content of communication, globalization of communication, are critical to these changes. The environment
will support a greater degree of discontinuities in planning which is brought about by the globalization of management activities.
Successful management must encompose the management of these discontinuities but use information in an artificial intelligence
environment. The integration of these data and the actions that come from that integration must be understood within a moral
framework.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献