Tests for Cointegration Breakdown Over a Short Time Period

We derive a speculative trading model with endogenous informed trading that yields a conditionally heteroscedastic time series for trading volume and the squared price changes. We use half-hourly price-change and volume data for IBM during 1988 to test the model and estimate the structural parameters using the simulated method-of-moments estimation procedure. Although the model seems to do a reasonable job fitting the unconditional moments of the volume and the squared price change processes, it fares less well in fitting the relation between current trading volume and lags of trading volume and squared volume's (and its lag's) relation to squared price changes.     

Extreme probabilities for contingency tables under row and column independence with application to fisher's exact test

Theorerms are proved for the maxima and minima of IIR_i!/IIC_j!/T!II_yij ! over r× c contingcncy tables Y=(y_ij) with row sums R₁,…,R_r, column sums C₁,…,C_c, and grand total T. These results are imlplemented into the network algorithm of Mehta and Patel (1983) for computing the P-value of Fisher's exact test for unordered r×c contingency tables. The decrease in the amount of computing time can be substantial when the column sums are very different.     

Covariate classification by post–stratification

The plug–in Anderson's covariate classification statistic is constructed on the basis of an initially unclassified training sample by means of posty–stratification. The asymptotic efficiency relative to the discriminant based on an initially classified training sample is evaluated for the case where a covariate is present. Effect of post–stratification is examined.     

The power functions of the likelihood ratio tests for a simply ordered trend in normal means

Likelihood ratio tests for the homogeneity of k normal means with the alternative restricted by an increasing trend are considered as well as the likelihood ratio tests of the null hypothesis that the means satisfy the trend. While the work is primarily a survey of results concerning the power functions of these tests, the extensions of some results to the case of not necessarily equal sample sizes are presented. For the case of known or unknown population variances, exact expressions are given for the power functions for k=3,4, and approximations are discussed for larger k. The topics of consistency, bias and monotonicity of the power functions are included. Also, Bartholomew's conjectures concerning minimal and maximal powers are investigated, with results of a new numerical study given.     

A modification of watson's statistic for goodness-of-fit

A modification of Watson's statistic is suggested for dealing with stochastically ordered alternatives in the goodness-of-fit setting.     

Estimation of gene/haplotype frequencies in genetic marker systems based on phenotype data

Two equivalent methods (gene counting and maximum likelihood) for estimating gene frequencies in a general genetic marker system based on observed phenotype data are derived. Under the maximum likelihood approach, an expression is given for the estimated covariance matrix from which estimated standard errors of the estimators can be found. In addition, consideration is given to the problem of estimating gene frequencies when there are available several independent population data sets.     

Cumulants of random sum distributions

Consider a random variable S being the sum of a number N of independent and identically distributed random variables X_j (j = 1, 2, ...) where the number N is itself a non-negative integer-valued random variable independent of the X_j An explicit expression of the r-th cumulant of S is given in terms of the cumulants of N and X_j, Asymptotic properties of the distribution of S are also discussed.     

A class of distribution-free tests for two-way layout

In this article a class of distribution-free tests for the hypothesis of no row (treatment) effect in a two-way layout design, with several observations per cell, is proposed. The tests are based on U-statistics, constructed by considering minima of all possible subsamples of same size from each cell.The proposed class of tests is compared with the parametric test, Mack and Skillings test and Yate's test for two-way layout, in terms of Pitman ARE sense. It is seen that for the case of equal number of observations per cell, the proposed tests have better efficiency for exponential and uniform error distributions.     

Quadratic perturbation expansions of certain functions of eigenvalues and eigenvectors and their application to sensitivity analysis in multivariate methods

Tanaka (1988) lias derived the influence functions, which are equivalent to the perturbation expansions up to linear terms, of two functions of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a real symmetric matrix, and applied them to principal component analysis. The present paper deals with the perturbation expansions up to quadratic terms of the same functions and discusses their application to sensitivity analysis in multivariate methods, in particular, principal component analysis and principal factor analysis. Numerical examples are given to show how the approximation improves with the quadratic terms.     

Gibbs sampling for marginal posterior expectations

In earlier work (Gelfand and Smith, 1990 and Gelfand et al, 1990) a sampling based approach using the Gibbs sampler was offered as a means for developing marginal posterior densities for a wide range of Bayesian problems several of which were previously inaccessible. Our purpose here is two-fold. First we flesh out the implementation of this approach for calculation of arbitrary expectations of interest. Secondly we offer comparison with perhaps the most prominent approach for calculating posterior expectations, analytic approximation involving application of the LaPlace method. Several illustrative examples are discussed as well. Clear advantages for the sampling based approach emerge.