中央苏区调查统计工作的内容和成效 ——中央苏区调查统计工作的光辉实践与有益启示（二）

 中央苏区制发了众多的统计报表全面反映战争和建设情况,采取多种调查统计方法确保数据真实可靠,并利用丰富的调查统计资料积极开展统计分析,及时发布统计资料,为革命战争和苏区经济建设服务。     

An iterative Monte Carlo method for nonconjugate Bayesian analysis

The Gibbs sampler has been proposed as a general method for Bayesian calculation in Gelfand and Smith (1990). However, the predominance of experience to date resides in applications assuming conjugacy where implementation is reasonably straightforward. This paper describes a tailored approximate rejection method approach for implementation of the Gibbs sampler when nonconjugate structure is present. Several challenging applications are presented for illustration.     

示波药物分析的研究——非那西丁的测定

示波极谱滴定——NaNO_2法具有快速准确的特点。本文报道了在40mL 6mol/L HCI—1.5g KBr的溶液中,以微铂电极为指示电极,以铂片电极作为参比电极,采用示波极谱滴定——NaNO_2法测定了非那西丁。通过ι检验,该法与药典法所测结果无显著性差异,表明该法可靠。     

电磁逆散射问题中的泛函方法

用于电磁逆散射问题中关于未知介质分布的非线性积分方程经离散化后，其相应的矩阵方程通常是病态方程。对于病态的矩阵方程，其解或是不存在或是不唯一。这取决于该矩阵方程是超定的还是欠定的。对于这样的不适定问题，可用一些泛函方法使其转化为适定问题。文中介绍了用于电磁逆散射问题中的最小二乘方法、奇异值分解方法、正则化方法和最大熵方法，并对各种方法的优缺点给出评价。     

On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment

A central part of probabilistic public health risk assessment is the selection of probability distributions for the uncertain input variables. In this paper, we apply the first-order reliability method (FORM)^(1–3) as a probabilistic tool to assess the effect of probability distributions of the input random variables on the probability that risk exceeds a threshold level (termed the probability of failure) and on the relevant probabilistic sensitivities. The analysis was applied to a case study given by Thompson et al. ⁽⁴⁾ on cancer risk caused by the ingestion of benzene contaminated soil. Normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions were used in the analysis. The results show that the selection of a probability distribution function for the uncertain variables in this case study had a moderate impact on the probability that values would fall above a given threshold risk when the threshold risk is at the 50th percentile of the original distribution given by Thompson et al. ⁽⁴⁾ The impact was much greater when the threshold risk level was at the 95th percentile. The impact on uncertainty sensitivity, however, showed a reversed trend, where the impact was more appreciable for the 50th percentile of the original distribution of risk given by Thompson et al. ⁴ than for the 95th percentile. Nevertheless, the choice of distribution shape did not alter the order of probabilistic sensitivity of the basic uncertain variables.     

An adaptive allocation sampling design for which the conventional stratified estimator is an appropriate estimator

Adaptive allocations in stratified sampling design are suitable for studying Biological and Environmental populations. Biologists tend to use the conventional stratified estimator for an adaptive allocation sampling design in spite of its adaptive nature. In this paper, we have introduced an adaptive allocation sampling design for which the conventional stratified estimator has some desired statistical properties. We conduct a simulation study on a real population. The results show that the conventional stratified estimator for the introduced adaptive allocation sampling design is more efficient than other available estimators.     

A note on estimating the false discovery rate under mixture model

In this note, we focus on estimating the false discovery rate (FDR) of a multiple testing method with a common, non-random rejection threshold under a mixture model. We develop a new class of estimates of the FDR and prove that it is less conservatively biased than what is traditionally used. Numerical evidence is presented to show that the mean squared error (MSE) is also often smaller for the present class of estimates, especially in small-scale multiple testings. A similar class of estimates of the positive false discovery rate (pFDR) less conservatively biased than what is usually used is then proposed. When modified using our estimate of the pFDR and applied to a gene-expression data, Storey's q-value method identifies a few more significant genes than his original q-value method at certain thresholds. The BH like method developed by thresholding our estimate of the FDR is shown to control the FDR in situations where the p  -values have the same dependence structure as required by the BH method and, for lack of information about the proportion _π0${\pi }_0$ of true null hypotheses, it is reasonable to assume that _π0${\pi }_0$ is uniformly distributed over (0,1).     

Re-parameterization of multinomial distributions and diversity indices

It is shown in this paper that the parameters of a multinomial distribution may be re-parameterized as a set of generalized Simpson's diversity indices. There are two important elements in the generalization: (1) Simpson's diversity index is extended to populations with infinite species; (2) weighting schemes are incorporated. A class of unbiased estimators for the generalized Simpson's biodiversity indices is proposed. Asymptotic normality is established for the estimators. Both the unbiasedness and the asymptotic normality of the estimators hold for all three cases of the number of species in the population: infinite, finite and known, and finite but unknown. In the case of a population with a finite number of species, known or unknown, it is also established that the proposed estimators are uniformly minimum variance unbiased and are asymptotically efficient.     

Construction and selection of tightened–normal–tightened variables sampling scheme of type TNTVSS (n 1, n 2; k)

This paper provides tables for the construction and selection of tightened–normal–tightened variables sampling scheme of type TNTVSS (n ₁, n ₂; k). The method of designing the scheme indexed by (AQL, α) and (LQL, β) is indicated. The TNTVSS (n _T , n _N; k) is compared with conventional single sampling plans for variables and with TNT (n ₁, n ₂; c) scheme for attributes, and it is shown that the TNTVSS is more efficient.     

GMM in linear regression for longitudinal data with multiple covariates measured with error

Griliches and Hausman 5 Griliches, Z. and Hausman, J. A. 1986. Errors in variables in panel data. J. Econometrics, 32: 93–118. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] and Wansbeek 11 Wansbeek, T. J. 2001. GMM estimation in panel data models with measurement error. J. Econometrics, 104: 259–268. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] proposed using the generalized method of moments (GMM) to obtain consistent estimators in linear regression models for longitudinal data with measurement error in one covariate, without requiring additional validation or replicate data. For usefulness of this methodology, we must extend it to the more realistic situation where more than one covariate are measured with error. Such an extension is not straightforward, since measurement errors across different covariates may be correlated. By a careful construction of the measurement error correlation structure, we are able to extend Wansbeek's GMM and show that the extended Griliches and Hausman's GMM is equivalent to the extended Wansbeek's GMM. For illustration, we apply the extended GMM to data from two medical studies, and compare it with the naive method and the method assuming only one covariate having measurement error.