越南当前经济发展中的热点问题

越南经济在过去的8年中实现了前所未有的快速增长。然而,持续8年的快速增长也导致了贸易逆差扩大、通货膨胀压力增大、经济过热等问题。越南经济目前确实面临着困难,但它并未陷入金融危机。越南的经济问题,归根到底就是经济过热。越南政府为控制通胀水平采取的宏观调控措施正在起作用,越南的经济正在逐渐好转。但是就目前来看还难以断言越南的经济已经摆脱困境。在国内通货膨胀率仍居高位,贸易逆差仍然较大,国际油价和原材料价格继续上涨,通货膨胀继续蔓延的背景下,如何在控制通货膨胀和发展经济中求取平衡,这将是越南政府面临的巨大考验。     

Money in Search Equilibrium,in Competitive Equilibrium,and in Competitive Search Equilibrium

We compare three market structures for monetary economies: bargaining (search equilibrium); price taking (competitive equilibrium); and price posting (competitive search equilibrium). We also extend work on the microfoundations of money by allowing a general matching technology and entry. We study how equilibrium and the effects of policy depend on market structure. Under bargaining, trade and entry are both inefficient, and inflation implies first‐order welfare losses. Under price taking, the Friedman rule solves the first inefficiency but not the second, and inflation may actually improve welfare. Under posting, the Friedman rule yields the first best, and inflation implies second‐order welfare losses.     

资本流动、外汇管制与人民币内外价值背离

近年国际资本大量流入我国境内,通过外汇管制渠道提高外汇储备,一方面造成外汇市场供给增加,给人民币带来升值的压力;另一方面,央行经常被动性购入外汇,造成外汇占款增多,在外汇占款日趋成为我国基础货币供应主渠道的情况下,我国货币供应量被动增加,超额货币供应成为推动物价资产价格上涨的资金来源,人民币内外价值日趋出现背离趋势。本文认为,外汇管制使基础货币被动放大,放松管制使汇率波动和波动预期提高,二者合并产生了当前的货币现象。     

Long‐Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long‐term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news of future deficits implies current inflation or future inflation. When long‐term debt is present, the government can trade current inflation for future inflation by debt operations; this tradeoff is not present if the government rolls over short‐term debt. The maturity structure of outstanding debt acts as a “budget constraint” determining which periods' price levels the government can affect by debt variation alone. In addition, debt policy—the expected pattern of future state‐contingent debt sales, repurchases and redemptions—matters crucially for the effects of a debt operation. I solve for optimal debt policies to minimize the variance of inflation. I find cases in which long‐term debt helps to stabilize inflation. I also find that the optimal policy produces time series that are similar to U.S. surplus and debt time series. To understand the data, I must assume that debt policy offsets the inflationary impact of cyclical surplus shocks, rather than causing price level disturbances by policy‐induced shocks. Shifting the objective from price level variance to inflation variance, the optimal policy produces much less volatile inflation at the cost of a unit root in the price level; this is consistent with the stabilization of U.S. inflation after the gold standard was abandoned.     

A study on cyclic bandwidth sum

Suppose G is a graph of p vertices. A proper labeling f of G is a one-to-one mapping f:V(G)→{1,2,…,p}. The cyclic bandwidth sum of G with respect to f is defined by CBS _f (G)=∑ _uv∈E(G)|f(v)−f(u)| _p , where |x| _p =min {|x|,p−|x|}. The cyclic bandwidth sum of G is defined by CBS(G)=min {CBS _f (G): f is a proper labeling of G}. The bandwidth sum of G with respect to f is defined by BS _f (G)=∑ _uv∈E(G)|f(v)−f(u)|. The bandwidth sum of G is defined by BS(G)=min {BS _f (G): f is a proper labeling of G}. In this paper, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for BS(G)=CBS(G), and use this to show that BS(T)=CBS(T) when T is a tree. We also find cyclic bandwidth sums of complete bipartite graphs. Dedicated to Professor Frank K. Hwang on the occasion of his 65th birthday. Supported in part by the National Science Council under grants NSC91-2115-M-156-001.     

我国通货膨胀路径的对称性和波动性分析

我国价格水平变化具有一定程度的对称性,但在通货膨胀和通货紧缩阶段具有不同的波动性。影响我国价格水平变化的重要原因来自消费需求,目前我国价格水平变化具有有效需求驱动特性。紧缩货币政策有效地抑制了通货膨胀,但稳健货币政策对缓解通货紧缩作用微弱,同时积极财政政策也没有明显地影响价格水平,因此缓解通货紧缩还需要更为积极的名义扩张。     

中国货币政策利率工具调控的数量效应与价格效应分析

通过构建VAR模型,实证分析中国货币政策利率工具调控的数量效应和价格效应。结论显示:在市场流动性过剩的金融环境下,商业银行信贷规模对利率政策的敏感性增强,货币政策利率工具调控的数量效应有所扩大;由于短期"费雪效应"的存在,弱化了货币政策利率工具调控的价格效应;货币政策的数量型工具对抑制通货膨胀见效相对更快。因此,货币当局在金融调控中,需要根据经济发展的不同周期阶段和金融环境,合理搭配运用价格型和数量型货币政策工具,提高货币政策的调控效率和预期效应。     

论通货膨胀问题与治理对策

本文通过对通货膨胀的现状、产生原因、社会后果的分析，指出通货膨胀是一种世界性的经济现象，尤其中国的通货膨胀除社会需求拉动、成本推进原因外，同中国投资建设大、资源缺乏、人口众多、社会经济结构不合理这一特殊社会问题有关。作者认为，遏制通货膨胀的关键点在于控制通货膨胀的同时，又不遏制经济增长和就业的增加，保持高经济增长和低通货膨胀的态势     

建立宏观均衡的微观基础

反通货膨胀政策会带来产量的损失,这是经济理论和中国经济实践已经充分证明了的.为此,我们必须加快企业体制和居民保障制度改革,为宏观经济调控创造一个适应的微观经济基础,保持经济的稳定发展.     

中国宏观经济情境设计与路径预测

路径预测是通过构建联合置信区间来获得未来多期预测的可能范围,覆盖了中国宏观经济的可能运行路径。通过系统迭代和直接预测方法对我国宏观经济中的产出,通胀和利率进行蒙特卡洛模拟和路径预测,并在特定宏观经济情景下进行伪样本外条件路径预测。基于中国数据的蒙特卡洛模拟结果显示Scheffé方法构建的预测路径具有合理的路径覆盖范围,是判定预测不确定性的合理且有效方法,伪样本外条件路径预测显示合理的情境设计能够得出更为有效的预测路径。