Zero-inflated compound Poisson distributions in integer-valued GARCH models

In this paper we introduce a wide class of integer-valued stochastic processes that allows to take into consideration, simultaneously, relevant characteristics observed in count data namely zero inflation, overdispersion and conditional heteroscedasticity. This class includes, in particular, the compound Poisson, the zero-inflated Poisson and the zero-inflated negative binomial INGARCH models, recently proposed in literature. The main probabilistic analysis of this class of processes is here developed. Precisely, first- and second-order stationarity conditions are derived, the autocorrelation function is deduced and the strict stationarity is established in a large subclass. We also analyse in a particular model the existence of higher-order moments and deduce the explicit form for the first four cumulants, as well as its skewness and kurtosis.     

A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany

After the introduction of Euro notes and coins in January 2002, throughout the Economic and Monetary Union member countries a substantial discrepancy was evident between inflation as measured by the official consumer price indices (CPI) and that perceived by the general public. The starting point of this paper is the German case. First, the public controversy in Germany after the Euro changeover is sketched. Then conventional approaches to perceived inflation are reviewed including the many studies published by the German Federal Statistical Office as well as the perceived inflation balance generated within the EU Consumer Survey. In the main part of the paper, a novel approach to measuring perceived inflation is developed, the Index of Perceived Inflation (IPI). First, the hypotheses underlying this index are presented. Then, the IPI is derived. In the forth section the IPI is applied to the German data. The IPI time series for Germany from 1996 through 2005 shows a particularly high perceived inflation around the introduction of Euro notes and coins. In the fifth section the hypotheses of inflation perception underlying the IPI are critically reviewed. The paper closes with a conclusion on the insights gained through computation of the IPI.     

Food Prices,Government Subsidies and Fiscal Balances in South Mediterranean Countries

Soaring food and energy prices sparked the revolts in Northern African countries at the end of 2010. This article investigates empirically the impact of world food prices on inflation and government subsidies for Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, the occupied Palestinian territories and Tunisia during the ten‐year period 2002–11. Its findings reveal an asymmetry in the response of consumer‐price inflation to shocks in world food prices that made inflation rise fast while nominal rigidities prevented it from falling. Moreover, it shows that government balances deteriorated to 2% of GDP in 2008 and 2011 owing to the incremental government food subsidies, while they hardly improved in value terms when world prices fell sharply in 2009.     

民国政府公教人员生活状况的演变

以抗日战争的爆发为界,民国政府公教人员的生活状况发生了由舒适到艰难的演变。在民国成立之初,公教人员的工资标准普遍较高。收入最少的小学教员没能量入为出,其他人员就更是舒适安然、衣食无忧。抗战爆发以后,随着战时的通货膨胀,公教人员的工薪实值越来越少,他们的生活状况也日趋艰难。到了南京国民政府的最后几年中,公教人员竟沦落到难以维持基本温饱的地步。前期的舒适稳定与后期的贫困动荡,使他们在感受物质反差与失落的同时,也对政府产生了深深的失望。      

通货膨胀对货币流通速度的效应分析

检验1953-2007年通货膨胀与货币供应的因果关系以及通货膨胀对货币流通速度的效应，结果显示：通货膨胀和货币供应量之间的双向因果关系得不到实证上的支持，通货膨胀是货币供应量变动的原因而且较为显著；整体上通货膨胀对货币流通速度的绝对加速效应要弱于相对加速效应。然而近年来的数据显示，通货膨胀对货币流通的绝对效应与相对效应变得明显，进一步证实了弗里德曼1963年的论断“通货膨胀总是货币现象”。     

我国核心通货膨胀的实证比较研究

 本文对比研究了5种度量方法下的核心通货膨胀序列，发现不对称截尾法、中位数法得出的序列受食品类权重过大的影响，不适合作为我国的核心通货膨胀指标；对不对称截尾法、剔除法、共同趋势法和结构向量自回归法产生的序列的进一步研究中，发现它们都与CPI序列一样是一阶平稳的，虽然它们与CPI的相关系数很大，除了30%比率截尾平均法外，与CPI不存在协整关系；因果检验表明，除共同趋势法的序列是CPI的原因外，其余序列的因果关系不是很明确，但是都能在一定程度上预测CPI。     

我国通货膨胀中食品价格引领物价上涨的经济学分析

近十几年来,我国一共经历了三次较大的通货膨胀期,从居民消费价格指数的变动可以看出,在物价上涨时,食品价格一直都引领着物价的上涨。原因一是食品需求价格弹性较小,二是农业劳动生产率的增长速度落后于其他产业劳动生产率的增长速度,三是农产品的总产出增长率大幅落后于其他产业的总产出增长率,四是农产品价格向其实际价值回归。为了让食品价格保持平缓上升,政府应该大力扶持农业的发展,鼓励和资金大力支持农业技术创新,同时减少对市场的行政干预,支持市场的自我发展。     

后金融危机时期我国金融安全若干问题研究（上）

过度的金融衍生品创新与金融自由化是美国爆发金融危机的主要原因,在经济全球化的大背景下,危机迅速涉及全球,使各国金融资产遭受严重损失,国际贸易受到重创,严重破坏了正常的经济生活。各国相继采取措施,实施金融救助方案、扩张性财政政策和货币政策,调整产业政策,促进实体经济的恢复和发展,已初见成效。从当前情况看,各国一面采取措施刺激经济增长,保证就业,一面防范贸易保护主义带来的新风险,还在考虑终止刺激政策的时间、方式和速度,对通货膨胀严加防范。更重要的是调整产业结构和布局,以迎接新技术革命和新兴产业的出现和大发展。     

后金融危机时代中国通货膨胀治理研究——基于财政政策视角

在后金融危机时代,中国要控制经济通货膨胀过快增长的势头,实现快速发展这一目标,首先应保证财政政策自身的独立性,同时积极采取相应的措施弥补货币政策的不足。本文回顾了财政政策与通货膨胀的因果关系,给出了若干治理通货膨胀的措施,同时,通过研究我国通胀产生的深层次原因和借鉴国外资本市场成熟的经验,主要从财政支出、政府转移支付、税收、货币政策等方面,对财政政策提出了建议。     

Youth underemployment: A review of research on young people and the problems of less(er) employment in an era of mass education

In this article, we examine the problem of youth underemployment and how it is conceptualised, operationalised and understood within wider sociology, with particular focus on the sociology of youth and youth studies literature. We outline the contours of this body of work, showing how in most cases underemployment is undefined and used as a general term to describe the challenges and inadequacies of the contemporary labour market for young people. Further, we show how despite a lack of clarity, most researchers in this field contend that underemployment is increasing for young people, becoming a normative experience, cutting across class, ethnicity and gender. For some, however, underemployment is a ‘choice’, but as the literature shows, how different groups of young people respond to underemployment varies. In addition, we show how overeducation, another form of underemployment, is being understood by both researchers and young people as a ‘new normal’ rather than being challenged as another flank in the on-going neo-liberalisation and massification of education. We conclude with a call to think through the ideas presented and to develop new understandings of youth underemployment that can facilitate change. The sensitising concept of less(er) employment is proposed as best placed to facilitate this reanimation.