德福一致的历史传承和现代解读

随着现代化进程的推进,我国德福一致的内涵发生了巨大变化。首先,相对于传统社会,现代社会道德承载者范围不断拓展,制度的道德成为现代社会道德的基础,个体的道德要求发生了历史性的变化,人类的道德成为现代道德的重要组成部分。其次,在现代社会里,福的社会依存度也不断增强,与制度之德和他人之德联系越来越大。第三,德福一致的保障机制从传统唯心的因果报应论转向于入世的、此岸的现实体系。道德的制度成为现代德福一致保障的基础,惩恶扬善的法律和社会机制是德福一致的推动力,人的精神需求发掘是德福一致的内在保障。     

P2P系统中的著作权侵权责任探析

P2P系统的应用,使得作品的传播变得更加方便与快捷,也使得对作品的侵权越来越成为可能,为了寻求文化艺术作品的传播与版权人利益保护之间的平衡,从网络技术和法律方法相结合的角度,研究了P2P系统中的著作权侵权问题。认为P2P系统中的著作权侵权应当适用过错责任的归责原则。根据这一原则,只要ICP所提供的内容侵权,就需要承担侵权责任,软件提供商在明知或应知软件侵权的情况下仍然提供服务也应当承担侵权责任,软件经营者则可以适用＂通知与删除＂规则,在有证据表明有人利用P2P系统侵害著作权的情况下,软件经营者应当停止相应服务,否则就应当承担侵权责任。而对于P2P用户,则可要求其对其共享文件夹中的侵权作品承担侵权责任。     

Multistate Survival Models as Transient Electrical Networks

In multistate survival analysis, the sojourn of a patient through various clinical states is shown to correspond to the diffusion of 1 C of electrical charge through an electrical network. The essential comparison has differentials of probability for the patient to correspond to differentials of charge, and it equates clinical states to electrical nodes. Indeed, if the death state of the patient corresponds to the sink node of the circuit, then the transient current that would be seen on an oscilloscope as the sink output is a plot of the probability density for the survival time of the patient. This electrical circuit analogy is further explored by considering the simplest possible survival model with two clinical states, alive and dead (sink), that incorporates censoring and truncation. The sink output seen on an oscilloscope is a plot of the Kaplan–Meier mass function. Thus, the Kaplan–Meier estimator finds motivation from the dynamics of current flow, as a fundamental physical law, rather than as a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). Generalization to competing risks settings with multiple death states (sinks) leads to cause‐specific Kaplan–Meier submass functions as outputs at sink nodes. With covariates present, the electrical analogy provides for an intuitive understanding of partial likelihood and various baseline hazard estimates often used with the proportional hazards model.     

Strong Consistency of Conditional Value-at-risk Estimate for ϕ-mixing Samples

In this article, we investigate the strong consistency of conditional value-at-risk estimate for ? ?mixing samples under mild conditions. Moreover, the corresponding strong consistency rate is also obtained.     

Bayes Factor Consistency for One-way Random Effects Model

In this article, we consider Bayesian hypothesis testing for the balanced one-way random effects model. A special choice of the prior formulation for the ratio of variance components is shown to yield an explicit closed-form Bayes factor without integral representation. Furthermore, we study the consistency issue of the resulting Bayes factor under three asymptotic scenarios: either the number of units goes to infinity, the number of observations per unit goes to infinity, or both go to infinity. Finally, the behavior of the proposed approach is illustrated by simulation studies.     

Statistical Analysis of Parameter Estimation for 2-D Harmonics in Multiplicative and Additive Noise

This article considers the problem of parameter estimation for two dimensional (2-D) multi-component harmonics in non zero-mean multiplicative and additive noise. The least squares estimators (LSEs) are proposed to estimate the coherent model parameters, and some statistical results of the LSEs are obtained, including strong consistency, strong convergence rate, and asymptotic normality. Furthermore, the LSEs-based estimators are proposed to estimate the noncoherent model parameters, and the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality are also proved. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed to see how the asymptotic results work for finite sample sizes.     

Attitude–behavior consistency in household water consumption

The purpose of this paper is to examine how environmental attitudes and concern about water scarcity translate into water conservation behavior. The study considers whether Oregonians environmental concern measured by the New Environmental Paradigm scale and sociodemographic characteristics influence personal water conservation activities. Using a survey conducted in the spring of 2010 of Oregon residents, the interaction of environmental concern and sociodemographics that predict identified water conservation behaviors are considered.     

Variable selection for multivariate generalized linear models

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are widely studied to deal with complex response variables. For the analysis of categorical dependent variables with more than two response categories, multivariate GLMs are presented to build the relationship between this polytomous response and a set of regressors. Traditional variable selection approaches have been proposed for the multivariate GLM with a canonical link function when the number of parameters is fixed in the literature. However, in many model selection problems, the number of parameters may be large and grow with the sample size. In this paper, we present a new selection criterion to the model with a diverging number of parameters. Under suitable conditions, the criterion is shown to be model selection consistent. A simulation study and a real data analysis are conducted to support theoretical findings.     

On Variational Bayes Estimation and Variational Information Criteria for Linear Regression Models

Variational Bayes (VB) estimation is a fast alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo for performing approximate Baesian inference. This procedure can be an efficient and effective means of analyzing large datasets. However, VB estimation is often criticised, typically on empirical grounds, for being unable to produce valid statistical inferences. In this article we refute this criticism for one of the simplest models where Bayesian inference is not analytically tractable, that is, the Bayesian linear model (for a particular choice of priors). We prove that under mild regularity conditions, VB based estimators enjoy some desirable frequentist properties such as consistency and can be used to obtain asymptotically valid standard errors. In addition to these results we introduce two VB information criteria: the variational Akaike information criterion and the variational Bayesian information criterion. We show that variational Akaike information criterion is asymptotically equivalent to the frequentist Akaike information criterion and that the variational Bayesian information criterion is first order equivalent to the Bayesian information criterion in linear regression. These results motivate the potential use of the variational information criteria for more complex models. We support our theoretical results with numerical examples.     

宏观经济政策的时间一致性和商业经济周期的推动力

介绍了2004年度诺贝尔经济学奖获得者芬恩·基德兰德和爱德华·普雷斯科特在宏观经济政策和商业经济周期研究中作出的开创性贡献,阐述了其理论的产生背景和内容,指出他们在宏观经济政策制定以及经济周期的驱动力问题上的独创研究,不仅改变了现代经济学研究的方法,还对世界各国政府在宏观经济政策,尤其是货币政策的制定上产生了广泛的影响。