国际分工优势转移原理分析

要掌握和利用国际分工优势转移的规律，就应对其进行机理与模式分析。机理分析包括：1．内在原因分析；2．实现形式分析；3．人力资本国际分工优势分析；4．市场优势分工分析。模式分析，即成本优势转移的各种状态的分析。     

Nonparametric M-regression with free knot splines

Many problems of practical interest can be formulated as the nonparametric estimation of a certain function such as a regression function, logistic or other generalized regression function, density function, conditional density function, hazard function, or conditional hazard function. Extended linear modeling provides a convenient theoretical framework for using polynomial splines and their selected tensor products in such function estimation problems and especially for obtaining rates of convergence of the resulting estimates in a unified manner. For a long time the theoretical results were restricted to fixed knot splines and to log-likelihood functions that were twice continuously differentiable. Recently, Stone and Huang extended the theory to handle free knot splines. In the present paper, the theory is further extended to handle contexts in which the log-likelihood function may not be differentiable. Specifically, we establish rates of convergence for estimation based on free knot splines in the context of nonparametric regression corresponding to M-estimates, which includes least absolute deviations (LAD) regression, quantile regression, and robust regression as special cases.     

论物权的民法保护之范式——以物上请求权与侵权请求权为中心考察

物权的民法保护不仅涉及物权的安全,还决定了民法责任体系的构架.物权保护有不同方式,即侵权请求权方式、物上请求权方式和物上请求权-侵权请求权方式.其中第三种方式具有合理性,建议我国采纳该范式.物权保全请求权具有适宜保护绝对权利的特点,我国绝对权保护可准此建立.     

Bounding Analysis as an Inadequately Specified Methodology

The bounding analysis methodology described by Ha-Duong et al. (this issue) is logically incomplete and invites serious misuse and misinterpretation, as their own example and interpretation illustrate. A key issue is the extent to which these problems are inherent in their methodology, and resolvable by a logically complete assessment (such as Monte Carlo or Bayesian risk assessment), as opposed to being general problems in any risk-assessment methodology. I here attempt to apportion the problems between those inherent in the proposed bounding analysis and those that are more general, such as reliance on questionable expert elicitations. I conclude that the specific methodology of Ha-Duong et al. suffers from logical gaps in the definition and construction of inputs, and hence should not be used in the form proposed. Furthermore, the labor required to do a sound bounding analysis is great enough so that one may as well skip that analysis and carry out a more logically complete probabilistic analysis, one that will better inform the consumer of the appropriate level uncertainty. If analysts insist on carrying out a bounding analysis in place of more thorough assessments, extensive analyses of sensitivity to inputs and assumptions will be essential to display uncertainties, arguably more essential than it would be in full probabilistic analyses.     

Estimating the First- and Second-Order Parameters of a Heavy-Tailed Distribution

This paper suggests censored maximum likelihood estimators for the first‐ and second‐order parameters of a heavy‐tailed distribution by incorporating the second‐order regular variation into the censored likelihood function. This approach is different from the bias‐reduced maximum likelihood method proposed by Feuerverger and Hall in 1999. The paper derives the joint asymptotic limit for the first‐ and second‐order parameters under a weaker assumption. The paper also demonstrates through a simulation study that the suggested estimator for the first‐order parameter is better than the estimator proposed by Feuerverger and Hall although these two estimators have the same asymptotic variances.     

Estimation of the intercept parameter for linear regression model with uncertain non-sample prior information

This paper considers alternative estimators of the intercept parameter of the linear regression model with normal error when uncertain non-sample prior information about the value of the slope parameter is available. The maximum likelihood, restricted, preliminary test and shrinkage estimators are considered. Based on their quadratic biases and mean square errors the relative performances of the estimators are investigated. Both analytical and graphical comparisons are explored. None of the estimators is found to be uniformly dominating the others. However, if the non-sample prior information regarding the value of the slope is not too far from its true value, the shrinkage estimator of the intercept parameter dominates the rest of the estimators.     

Measuring the impact of prices on inequality: With applications to Thailand and Korea

This paper develops a new methodology to compute social cost of living indices. These indices indicate whether or not price changes have a favourable (or unfavourable) impact on the welfare of the poor. The indices are derived on the basis of two alternative classes of social welfare functions. The methodology developed in the paper is applied to compute social cost of living indices for Thailand and Korea. The empirical results show that changes in prices have generally affected the poor more adversely than the non-poor.     

Local model uncertainty and incomplete-data bias (with discussion)

Summary.  Problems of the analysis of data with incomplete observations are all too familiar in statistics. They are doubly difficult if we are also uncertain about the choice of model. We propose a general formulation for the discussion of such problems and develop approximations to the resulting bias of maximum likelihood estimates on the assumption that model departures are small. Loss of efficiency in parameter estimation due to incompleteness in the data has a dual interpretation: the increase in variance when an assumed model is correct; the bias in estimation when the model is incorrect. Examples include non-ignorable missing data, hidden confounders in observational studies and publication bias in meta-analysis. Doubling variances before calculating confidence intervals or test statistics is suggested as a crude way of addressing the possibility of undetectably small departures from the model. The problem of assessing the risk of lung cancer from passive smoking is used as a motivating example.     

Getting the offer: Sex discrimination in hiring

The hiring process is currently the least understood aspect of the employment relationship. It may be the most important for understanding the broad processes of stratification with allocation of demographic groups to jobs and firms. The lack of knowledge is due to difficulty of assembling data on the processes that occur at the point of hire. Against this background we analyze data on all applicants to positions in one of the largest Scandinavian banks in 1997–1998, providing what we believe to be the first study using applicant pool data and information about extended offers in a private-sector European firm, adding to the record of about half a dozen such U.S. studies. The hiring agents in the organization are fully conscious and concerned about the nonconscious biases and gender schemas they carry when making hiring decisions. Their effects on hiring are considered to be beyond dispute: women are at a clear disadvantage. For actual hiring practices we found that the opposite is true: women are not at a disadvantage and may even be at an advantage in getting offers. Two organizational practices may lead to female advantage. The hiring agents had been educated about the role of nonconscious biases, which perhaps mitigated their effects. But they had also been instructed to search actively for qualified females in the applicant pool. With no qualified females in the first pass, they go through the pool a second and third time hoping to find one. We discuss reasons why the interpretations and meanings the hiring agents attribute to the hiring process are at odds with what actually occurs.     

入世后山东省分富分化问题研究

中国加入世贸组织将直接影响到社会成员的未来贫富分化状况,它将分别通过个人自致性因素和社会结构性因素重构未来贫富分化的新格局。山东省作为沿海开放省份,同时也是一个农业大省,入世后社会成员贫富分化的格局将发生一定的变化。了解贫富分化的大体趋势并且采用适当的策略来控制过度的贫富差距,对山东社会的稳定发展具有重要的现实作用。