Summary of the Workshop on Issues in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Methods for Developmental Toxicology

This report summarizes the proceedings of a conference on quantitative methods for assessing the risks of developmental toxicants. The conference was planned by a subcommittee of the National Research Council's Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology ⁴ in conjunction with staff from several federal agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, U.S. Consumer Products Safety Commission, and Health and Welfare Canada. Issues discussed at the workshop included computerized techniques for hazard identification, use of human and animal data for defining risks in a clinical setting, relationships between end points in developmental toxicity testing, reference dose calculations for developmental toxicology, analysis of quantitative dose-response data, mechanisms of developmental toxicity, physiologically based pharmacokinetic models, and structure-activity relationships. Although a formal consensus was not sought, many participants favored the evolution of quantitative techniques for developmental toxicology risk assessment, including the replacement of lowest observed adverse effect levels (LOAELs) and no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) with the benchmark dose methodology.     

Pluralism and Universality of Environmental Discourse: The Dilemma Between Damage Caused by the Japanese Macaque and its Protection

Abstract:  The subject of this paper is to describe the complexity of relations between man and wild monkeys, which causes difficulties in forming a social consensus related to their conservation and management. To present how the relations are in everyday life, and how they are simplified in universal discursive spaces, interviews and a questionnaire survey have been conducted. As a result, it is clarified that there are three kinds of discursive spaces, that of politics, natural science, and residents. People who share the land with wild monkeys have various terms and stories about their relations with monkeys. The monkeys have various values in the discourse of residents, including many troubles. The existence of monkeys is vivid and close, and can be described as "accessible" nature. However, in discussion of politics or natural sciences, there is less diversity in monkeys' values. In these discursive spaces, monkeys are described simply in the framework of "distant" nature, and wild monkey issues are constructed as a "pest animal issue". The simplified protocol between accessible and distant nature makes the wild monkey issues simple. And the attitudes of residents are shown as controversial through the contradiction between simple-complex issues. In conclusion, this contradiction cannot be solved only by filling the gap between accessible and distant nature with social consensus, but also by connecting the two and enhancing the dynamism of society as a whole.     

Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land

Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains.     

Semiparametric linear transformation models for current status data

Current status data arise when the death of every subject in a study cannot be determined precisely, but is known only to have occurred before or after a random monitoring time. The authors discuss the analysis of such data under semiparametric linear transformation models for which they propose a general inference procedure based on estimating functions. They determine the properties of the estimates they propose for the regression parameters of the model and illustrate their technique using tumorigenicity data.     

Retirement patterns in Hong Kong: a censored regression analysis

This paper provides an overview of retirement patterns in Hong Kong on the basis of limited data. A censored regression model is used to infer the retirement age from people‘s current retirement status and their current age. This model is equivalent to a restricted probit model, and the interpretation of parameters is straightforward. The results clearly show a negative income effect on the retirement decision. The retirement age seems to be positively related to lifetime earnings but negatively related to the rate of decline of earnings with age. JEL classification: C24, J14, J26 Received May 6, 1996 / Accepted February 5, 1997     

数字空间正义的理论内涵、缺失表象与弥合路径

数字空间是互联网集团代表的市场资本和掌握数字知识的技术精英共同塑造的新型社会空间,而数字空间正义就是对数字空间生产过程中出现的一系列空间异化现象的反思和批判,意指社会个体能平等公平地分配数字资源以及拥有充分数字权利。数字空间生产中,受市场资本和技术精英的共同支配和影响,数字空间日益沦为数字资本攫取剩余价值的空间,技术精英进行监视以及自我约束的规训空间,类型和功能均具明显单向度特征的同质空间,延续并再造新型社会不平等的区隔空间,进行免费劳动的剥削空间以及引导预售的消费空间。长此以往,数字社会日益沦为单向度社会,数字生活沦为单向度生活,人也日益丧失否定、批判和创新而成为单向度的人。为打造正义的数字空间,实现诗意的数字生活,须坚持数字空间生产的人本性和正义性取向,通过完善契合数字空间运行和发展的法律法规和伦理道德,规范数字资本时空运作以及生产复合型数字空间,再造专业型数字文化空间激发数字生活的集体记忆,秉承差异再造原则并保障主体数字权利,确保数字技术开发中价值理性和工具理性的平衡等路径予以实现。     

数字素养与农户收入差距:加剧还是缓解?——基于中西部地区的微观证据

数字经济时代,数字贫困问题对农户收入差距的影响引发新的关注。基于2021年中国农村经济与农村金融数据,采用再中心化响应函数(RIF)回归方法探究数字素养对农户收入差距的影响。研究发现:(1)数字素养显著扩大了农户收入差距,并具备明显的马太效应,高数字素养能够攫取更多数字红利,而低数字素养更容易陷入“数字贫困”状态,无法发挥出数字经济的增收效应。(2)应用数字素养会显著加剧农户收入差距,而通用数字素养对农户收入差距的影响并不显著。这种情况也得以印证,现阶段数字“接入鸿沟”已经得以解决,数字“应用鸿沟”差距逐渐凸显。(3)数字素养能够缩小农户财产性收入差距,但会显著扩大工资性收入差距与非农经营性收入差距。脱贫地区受到数字素养的马太效应更强,农户收入差距明显加剧。研究结论证实了我国农村内部存在明显的数字鸿沟,同时数字贫困问题加剧了农户收入差距。新发展阶段我国数字乡村战略的推进不仅要注重农村低收入群体以及弱势群体数字素养的培育,更要加快构建农村数字经济的包容性发展路径,助力农民农村共同富裕的实现。     

哀伤辅导视角下儿童丧亲主题绘本的疗愈效用——基于对9本绘本的叙事分析

为探究儿童丧亲主题绘本的疗愈效用,以哀伤辅导理论为指导框架对《小伤疤》等9本丧亲主题绘本进行叙事分析。研究发现,丧亲主题绘本多数都构建了完整的哀伤历程,分为5个阶段：“故事开端：叙述过去映射正向情感联结;第一次转折：以委婉言语表达死亡事实;情绪高潮：主人公强烈宣泄负面情绪;第二次转折：寻求超越死亡的生命意义;故事结尾：与过去挥手告别开启新生活。”但仍存在一些不足之处可以优化。例如,绘本创作要直面亲人死亡的生物性事实,建构亲人“永生”的现实意义,结合中国本土文化进行创新。作为家长及教育工作者,要关注丧亲儿童的心理健康,灵活运用绘本对儿童进行死亡教育,帮助丧亲儿童走出哀伤。     

媒介再现父职：“新父亲”形象与父职教育契机——基于网络短视频的内容分析

随着网络短视频在日常生活中的广泛渗透,以“爸爸带娃”为主题的家庭父职生活也逐渐媒介化。以微信视频号、小红书和抖音三大主流网络平台的短视频为研究对象,采用内容分析法,探究媒介再现父职中的“新父亲”形象,以及媒介再现父职隐含的父职教育契机。研究发现：媒介再现父职以“关爱父职”为主导,关爱父职影响积极且效果良好;父亲参与意愿和参与主动性强;父亲参与的互动性较为充分;平等、亲和、睿智的父亲形象突出;引流变现下的“花式带娃”等多样化“新父亲”形象。鉴于网络传播的巨大影响力和实效性,媒介再现父职的促进路径为：推动新父职理念的传播与实践转向;设立常人榜样,实现父职教育的日常渗透;明确本土化父职研究方向,拓展父亲情感参与维度。     

营造“包容性空间”:国际化社区的治理策略研究

营造包容性空间,构建包容性社会,加快推进空间治理的现代化进程,是现代化治理的重要目标。基于江苏省南京市Q社区的空间营造案例,从社区空间营造策略的视角出发,剖析国际化社区如何营造包容性空间。研究发现,基层政府基于中国居民与外籍人士的空间服务需求,运用多元参与、互动协商、文化治理等软性手段,通过建设人与居住地、社会、自然相融合的表征的包容性空间,组织温度、服务与文化协同相融的包容性空间的实践,构筑开放、包容与共享的包容性空间的表征等方式营造包容性空间。在营造包容性空间的过程中,基层政府空间营造行动的关键策略是采用“分型管理、内育外引”的主体包容策略、“内外兼修、空间包容”的技术包容策略、“多元网格、协商自治”的制度包容策略及“制度共融、成果共享”的结果包容策略,其根本目标在于打造国际化社区的治理共同体。包容性空间的治理技术对优化基层政府的空间治理能力、提升居民的参与水平与再造国际化社区秩序有积极效应,但亦潜藏多主体协同失序、政社关系掣肘、族群关系区隔、文化不稳定及包容性制度偏差等失灵风险。因此,基层政府需厚植多主体合作的治理机制、经营包容性空间的“适度性”,以利于国际化社区善治目标的实现。