Quotas on runs of successes and failures in a multi-state markov chain

For the time-homogeneous multi-state Markov chain {X_n,n≧0} with states labeled as "0" (success) and "f"(failure), f=1,2,… the waiting time problems to be discussed arise by setting quotas on runs of success and failures. Some particular cases are considered.     

Parameter estimation by minimizing a probability generating function-based power divergence

Abstract

Generating function-based statistical inference is an attractive approach if the probability (density) function is complicated when compared with the generating function. Here, we propose a parameter estimation method that minimizes a probability generating function (pgf)-based power divergence with a tuning parameter to mitigate the impact of data contamination. The proposed estimator is linked to the M-estimators and hence possesses the properties of consistency and asymptotic normality. In terms of parameter biases and mean squared errors from simulations, the proposed estimation method performs better for smaller value of the tuning parameter as data contamination percentage increases.     

Approximations in a group sequential test with unequal group sizes

Our concern in this paper is a group sequential test design for which the sample sizes between interim analyses are not identical. First, we consider a repeated significance test for comparing two treatments in a clinical trial, and study asymptotic properties of the test statistic. Using the arguments developed by Siegmund (1985, Chapters 8 and 9), we then obtain approximations for the overall significance level of the test and for the error level at each interim analysis. Simulation studies are performed to assess the accuracy of the approximations and the robustness of the approximations are examined using numerical examples.     

An Approximate Normalizing Power Transformation for the FDistribution

A power transformation of the Fdistribution is presented, yielding simple normal approximations for both probabilities and quantiles of the distribution. The transformation proposed is shown to produce the well-known Wilson-Hilferty cube root transformation (Wilson and Hilferty, 1931) for the chi-square distribution as a limiting case, as well as the Fisher logarithmic transformation (Fisher, 1924, 1925) for equal degrees of freedom. A numerical assessment of the accuracy achieved for approximating tail probabilities and a comparison with some of the existing approximate procedures are given.     

Combining Univariate Tests for Multivariate Location Problem

In this article, three methods of combining dependent univariate tests are studied. The Bahadur approximate efficiencies are derived under the asymptotic normal assumption. These procedures are applied to the multivariate location problem and compared with two Hotelling-type tests. A Monte Carlo study indicates that in certain cases the powers of the combination methods are much better than Hotelling's T ² and other multivariate nonparametric tests.     

Generalized exponential distribution: Moments of order statistics

In this paper, we consider the generalized exponential distribution (GED) with shape parameter α. We establish several recurrence relations satisfied by the single and the product moments for order statistics from the GED. The relationships can be written in terms of polygamma and hypergeometric functions and used in a simple recursive manner in order to compute the single and the product moments of all order statistics for all sample sizes.     

Analysis of hybrid censored competing risks data

In this paper, we consider the analysis of hybrid censored competing risks data, based on Cox's latent failure time model assumptions. It is assumed that lifetime distributions of latent causes of failure follow Weibull distribution with the same shape parameter, but different scale parameters. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the unknown parameters can be obtained by solving a one-dimensional optimization problem, and we propose a fixed-point type algorithm to solve this optimization problem. Approximate MLEs have been proposed based on Taylor series expansion, and they have explicit expressions. Bayesian inference of the unknown parameters are obtained based on the assumption that the shape parameter has a log-concave prior density function, and for the given shape parameter, the scale parameters have Beta–Gamma priors. We propose to use Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples to compute Bayes estimates and also to construct highest posterior density credible intervals. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to investigate the performances of the different estimators, and two data sets have been analysed for illustrative purposes.     

Estimating mixtures of normal distributions via empirical characteristic function

This paper uses the empirical characteristic function (ECF) procedure to estimate the parameters of mixtures of normal distributions. Since the characteristic function is uniformly bounded, the procedure gives estimates that are numerically stable. It is shown that, using Monte Carlo simulation, the finite sample properties of th ECF estimator are very good, even in the case where the popular maximum likelihood estimator fails to exist. An empirical application is illustrated using the monthl excess return of the Nyse value-weighted index.     

广州驻防八旗生计问题探析

摘要：满清定都北京以后,八旗军民合一的体制被打破,清政府为维护政权的稳固,分派八旗军在全国多处驻防。广州八旗在 驻防初期,有钱粮制度作保障,且旗民人口较少,因此,旗民生活较为宽裕,但随着清政府财政的枯竭,广州八旗旗民人口的增 长,广州驻防八旗旗民面临着严峻的生计问题,虽然广州采取了四项主要措施来解决旗民的生计问题,但这些措施对于多数生 计维艰的八旗旗民来说,仍是杯水车薪,最终广州八旗旗民突破了八旗驻防制度的种种束缚,开始自谋生路     

模糊决策控制的动态经济调度方法

本文基于模糊数学的基本原理与负荷预报相结合,提出了一种计及辅助设备控制的动态经济调度方法。该方法利用模糊决策的理论对与辅助设备相对应的运行区域的启停和转换做出经济而可行的判断。把发电与负荷的平衡、费用消耗、区域运行时间及旋转备用看成相应的模糊子集,从而建立其相应隶属函数。通过算例的试算证明是可行的。