证券分析师性别、盈余预测偏差与纠偏能力

证券分析师个人特征是其能力的重要表征.文章选取2007-2014年我国资本市场相关数据,研究了证券分析师的性别对盈余预测偏差的影响,以及盈余预测偏差的时间序列特征,实证结果显示:第一,整体上男性分析师的盈余预测偏差大于女性分析师;第二,男性分析师对于盈余预测偏差的纠正能力高于女性分析师;第三,随着对公司跟踪时间的增加,男性分析师的盈余预测偏差下降速度更快.研究结果说明,对于分析师跟踪时间较短的公司,女性分析师的盈余预测偏差较小,而对于受分析师长期跟踪的公司,男性分析师的盈余预测结果更准确.研究结论对投资者依据分析师性别判定其盈利预测准确性具有重要意义.     

Pooled Panel Unit Root Tests and the Effect of Past Initialization

This paper analyzes the role of initialization when testing for a unit root in panel data, an issue that has received surprisingly little attention in the literature. In fact, most studies assume that the initial value is either zero or bounded. As a response to this, the current paper considers a model in which the initialization is in the past, which is shown to have several distinctive features that makes it attractive, even in comparison to the common time series practice of making the initial value a draw from its unconditional distribution under the stationary alternative. The results have implications not only for theory, but also for applied work. In particular, and in contrast to the time series case, in panels the effect of the initialization need not be negative but can actually lead to improved test performance.     

The Local Power of the CADF and CIPS Panel Unit Root Tests

Very little is known about the local power of second generation panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-section dependence. This article derives the local asymptotic power functions of the cross-section argumented Dickey–Fuller Cross-section Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and CIPS tests of Pesaran (2007), which are among the most popular tests around.     

Robust signed-rank estimation and variable selection for semi-parametric additive partial linear models

A fully nonparametric model may not perform well or when the researcher wants to use a parametric model but the functional form with respect to a subset of the regressors or the density of the errors is not known. This becomes even more challenging when the data contain gross outliers or unusual observations. However, in practice the true covariates are not known in advance, nor is the smoothness of the functional form. A robust model selection approach through which we can choose the relevant covariates components and estimate the smoothing function may represent an appealing tool to the solution. A weighted signed-rank estimation and variable selection under the adaptive lasso for semi-parametric partial additive models is considered in this paper. B-spline is used to estimate the unknown additive nonparametric function. It is shown that despite using B-spline to estimate the unknown additive nonparametric function, the proposed estimator has an oracle property. The robustness of the weighted signed-rank approach for data with heavy-tail, contaminated errors, and data containing high-leverage points are validated via finite sample simulations. A practical application to an economic study is provided using an updated Canadian household gasoline consumption data.     

The Limits of Black Politics in the Post–Civil Rights Era

Pluralist theorists have long contended that to exercise power and influence in the American political system, blacks should come together like any other organized interest group, form coalitions with other like-minded people (white liberals), and advocate for policy reforms. Beginning during the “Black Power” era, the goal of putting black faces in high places to help address black concerns became a driving force in black politics. The deteriorating social and economic status of many in the black community, however, has not been prevented by either the political incorporation of more than 11,000 black elected officials or even the election of the nation’s first black president. This article will show how the inherent limitations of the pluralist interest-group strategy and a growing white backlash fueled by an awareness of changing demographics in the country has spawned an economic and political crisis in black America.     

Variance estimation based on blocked 3×2 cross-validation in high-dimensional linear regression

In high-dimensional linear regression, the dimension of variables is always greater than the sample size. In this situation, the traditional variance estimation technique based on ordinary least squares constantly exhibits a high bias even under sparsity assumption. One of the major reasons is the high spurious correlation between unobserved realized noise and several predictors. To alleviate this problem, a refitted cross-validation (RCV) method has been proposed in the literature. However, for a complicated model, the RCV exhibits a lower probability that the selected model includes the true model in case of finite samples. This phenomenon may easily result in a large bias of variance estimation. Thus, a model selection method based on the ranks of the frequency of occurrences in six votes from a blocked 3×2 cross-validation is proposed in this study. The proposed method has a considerably larger probability of including the true model in practice than the RCV method. The variance estimation obtained using the model selected by the proposed method also shows a lower bias and a smaller variance. Furthermore, theoretical analysis proves the asymptotic normality property of the proposed variance estimation.     

Elementary School-age Children's Attitudes Toward Children in Same-Sex Parent Families

As numbers of families with same-sex parents increase in the United States, children are more likely to encounter diverse family structures. Given that young children can demonstrate in-group bias, prejudicial attitudes, and social exclusion, it is important to understand how children perceive their peers in diverse families. To our knowledge, no studies have assessed elementary-school-age children's attitudes about same-sex parent families. Here, 131 elementary school students (M_age = 7.79 years; 61 girls) viewed images of same-sex (female and male) and other-sex couples with a child and then were asked about their perceptions of these families, particularly the children. Results indicated participants' preferences toward children with other-sex versus same-sex parents. Developmental and practical implications about children's attitudes toward sexual minority parent families are discussed.     

河北省优秀传统文化的近期偏好、现代阐释和愿景设计

河北省作为京津冀协同发展及其雄安新区建设的重要一环,具有很强文化资源禀赋。通过对河北省传统文化近期偏好、现代阐释和愿景设计的研究,为河北省消除地区文化差异和经济差异提供理论指导,并为之注入现代内涵,具有很强的现实意义和理论意义。     

学前儿童性别教育的研究现状及其启示

学前儿童性别教育的有关研究表明,社会上还存在着根深蒂固的性别歧视和性别偏见,身处特定环境中的学前教育教师以及图画书、教学媒体等仍然带有较强的性别歧视和性别偏见等性别刻板印记。为此,国家需要在学前儿童性别教育研究的基础上重视学前教育阶段的性别平等教育,制定相关的政策,建立性别教育的终身教育体系,构建教师性别平等教育的培训网络平台,以现代性别教育理念为指导,基于对儿童生理差异的尊重,设计出适合学前儿童身心发展特点的性别教育课程,全面有效地实施性别平等教育。     

中国投资者股利偏好行为的实证分析

运用超额收益法对深圳和上海证券市场的股利政策市场效应进行实证研究,探析不同类型股利的市场效应及投资者行为。结果表明,中国证券投资者在投资决策过程由于受心理因素的影响,对于不同类型的股利政策做出了不同的市场反应,并表现出一定的股利偏好行为,即证券投资者对现金股利政策,尤其稳定的现金股利政策表现出明显的喜好行为,而对于不分配股利政策却表现出了漠视效应行为。