Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Gaussian Chain Graph Models under the Alternative Markov Property

Abstract.  The Andersson–Madigan–Perlman (AMP) Markov property is a recently proposed alternative Markov property (AMP) for chain graphs. In the case of continuous variables with a joint multivariate Gaussian distribution, it is the AMP rather than the earlier introduced Lauritzen–Wermuth–Frydenberg Markov property that is coherent with data-generation by natural block-recursive regressions. In this paper, we show that maximum likelihood estimates in Gaussian AMP chain graph models can be obtained by combining generalized least squares and iterative proportional fitting to an iterative algorithm. In an appendix, we give useful convergence results for iterative partial maximization algorithms that apply in particular to the described algorithm.     

Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.     

RECENTERED AND RESCALED INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ESTIMATION OF TOBIT AND PROBIT MODELS WITH ERRORS IN VARIABLES

Since Durbin (1954) and Sargan (1958), instrumental variable (IV) method has long been one of the most popular procedures among economists and other social scientists to handle linear models with errors-in-variables. A direct application of this method to nonlinear errors-in-variables models, however, fails to yield consistent estimators.

This article restricts attention to Tobit and Probit models and shows that simple recentering and rescaling of the observed dependent variable may restore consistency of the standard IV estimator if the true dependent variable and the IV's are jointly normally distributed. Although the required condition seems rarely to be satisfied by real data, our Monte Carlo experiment suggests that the proposed estimator may be quite robust to the possible deviation from normality.     

Order statistics from non-identical right-truncated Lomax random variables with applications

In this paper, we derive some recurrence relations for the single and the product moments of order statistics from n independent and non-identically distributed Lomax and right-truncated Lomax random variables. These recurrence relations are simple in nature and could be used systematically in order to compute all the single and product moments of all order statistics in a simple recursive manner. The results for order statistics from the multiple-outlier model (with a slippage of p observations) are deduced as special cases. We then apply these results by examining the robustness of censored BLUE's to the presence of multiple outliers. Received: November 30, 1998; revised version: March 8, 2000     

Statistical Analysis of Marginal Count Failure Data

Manufacturers want to assess the quality andreliability of their products. Specifically, they want to knowthe exact number of failures from the sales transacted duringa particular month. Information available today is sometimesincomplete as many companies analyze their failure data simplycomparing sales for a total month from a particular departmentwith the total number of claims registered for that given month.This information—called marginal count data—is, thus,incomplete as it does not give the exact number of failures ofthe specific products that were sold in a particular month. Inthis paper we discuss nonparametric estimation of the mean numbersof failures for repairable products and the failure probabilitiesfor nonrepairable products. We present a nonhomogeneous Poissonprocess model for repairable products and a multinomial modeland its Poisson approximation for nonrepairable products. A numericalexample is given and a simulation is carried out to evaluatethe proposed methods of estimating failure probabilities undera number of possible situations.     

A Multiple Imputation Approach to Linear Regression with Clustered Censored Data

Weextend Wei and Tanner's (1991) multiple imputation approach insemi-parametric linear regression for univariate censored datato clustered censored data. The main idea is to iterate the followingtwo steps: 1) using the data augmentation to impute for censoredfailure times; 2) fitting a linear model with imputed completedata, which takes into consideration of clustering among failuretimes. In particular, we propose using the generalized estimatingequations (GEE) or a linear mixed-effects model to implementthe second step. Through simulation studies our proposal comparesfavorably to the independence approach (Lee et al., 1993), whichignores the within-cluster correlation in estimating the regressioncoefficient. Our proposal is easy to implement by using existingsoftwares.     

Simplified Estimating Functions for Diffusion Models with a High-dimensional Parameter

We consider estimating functions for discretely observed diffusion processes of the following type: for one part of the parameter of interest we propose to use a simple and explicit estimating function of the type studied by Kessler (2000); for the remaining part of the parameter we use a martingale estimating function. Such an approach is particularly useful in practical applications when the parameter is high-dimensional. It is also often necessary to supplement a simple estimating function by another type of estimating function because only the part of the parameter on which the invariant measure depends can be estimated by a simple estimating function. Under regularity conditions the resulting estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. Several examples are considered in order to demonstrate the idea of the estimating procedure. The method is applied to two data sets comprising wind velocities and stock prices. In one example we also propose a general method for constructing diffusion models with a prescribed marginal distribution which have a flexible dependence structure.     

Non-parametric Estimation of the Residual Distribution

Consider a heteroscedastic regression model Y = m ( X ) +σ( X )ε, where the functions m and σ are smooth, and ε is independent of X . An estimator of the distribution of ε based on non-parametric regression residuals is proposed and its weak convergence is obtained. Applications to prediction intervals and goodness-of-fit tests are discussed.     

Analysis of incomplete durations with application to contraceptive use

Models for analysing incomplete durations obtained from cross-sectional surveys are presented. The aim of the paper is to develop a framework for analysing the incomplete duration of episodes in progress at the time of the survey by formulating generalized linear models and fitting and assessing them by using standard statistical packages. The maximum quasi-likelihood method is used for model fitting. The choice of the distribution and the diagnostic procedures are discussed. Simulated data from two distributions (the Weibull and log-logistic distributions) are used to evaluate the methodology developed and to assess model misspecifications. A data set on the current use of the contraceptive pill from a cross-sectional survey in Egypt is analysed.     

A modified likelihood ratio test for homogeneity in finite mixture models

Testing for homogeneity in finite mixture models has been investigated by many researchers. The asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) is very complex and difficult to use in practice. We propose a modified LRT for homogeneity in finite mixture models with a general parametric kernel distribution family. The modified LRT has a χ-type of null limiting distribution and is asymptotically most powerful under local alternatives. Simulations show that it performs better than competing tests. They also reveal that the limiting distribution with some adjustment can satisfactorily approximate the quantiles of the test statistic, even for moderate sample sizes.