Improving variance function estimation in semiparametric longitudinal data analysis

We propose an efficient and robust method for variance function estimation in semiparametric longitudinal data analysis. The method utilizes a local log‐linear approximation for the variance function and adopts a generalized estimating equation approach to account for within subject correlations. We show theoretically and empirically that our method outperforms estimators using working independence that ignores the correlations. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 656–670; 2011. © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

Robust bootstrap forecast densities for GARCH returns and volatilities

Bootstrap procedures are useful to obtain forecast densities for both returns and volatilities in the context of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. In this paper, we analyse the effect of additive outliers on the finite sample properties of these bootstrap densities and show that, when obtained using maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and standard filters for the volatilities, they are badly affected with dramatic consequences on the estimation of Value-at-Risk. We propose constructing bootstrap densities for returns and volatilities using a robust parameter estimator based on variance targeting implemented together with an adequate modification of the volatility filter. We show that the performance of the proposed procedure is adequate when compared with available robust alternatives. The results are illustrated with both simulated and real data.     

Asymptotic non-null distribution of a test of equality of exponential populations

In this paper further asymptotic expansions of the non-null distribution of the likelihood ratio criterion for testing the equality of several one parameter exponential distributions are obtained when the alternatives are close to the hypothesis. These expansions are obtained for the first time in terms of beta distributions.     

Surveillance of the interaction parameter of the ising model

Surveillance to detect changes of spatial patterns is of interest in many areas such as environmental control and regional analysis. Here the interaction parameter of the Ising model, is considered. A minimal sufficient statistic and its asymptotic distribution are used. It is demonstrated that the convergence to normal, distribution is rapid. The main result is that when the lattice is large, all approximations are better in several respects. It is shown that, for large lattice sizes, earlier results on surveillance of a normally distributed random variable can be used in cases of most interest. The expected delay of alarm at a fixed level of false alarm probability is examined for some examples.     

A powerful test for uniformity to detect highly peaked alternativedensities

A new class of statistical tests for uniformity based on sample ranges is proposed to detect a uniform density contaminated by a density with one or more high peaks. These kinds of alternatives occur quite frequently, especially in physics. It is shown that the proposed tests arc consistent and have high Pitman asymptotic relative efficiencies. Results of a Monte Carlo power study indicate that they, compared with other tests of uniformity, possess good power properties.A comparative study of various tests is also conducted using real data. An effcient algorithm for computing out test statistic and a table of percentage points are given, providing a practical guide for using the new test.     

Interval estimation for misclassification rate parameters in a complementary Poisson model

We investigate three interval estimators for binomial misclassification rates in a complementary Poisson model where the data are possibly misclassified: a Wald-based interval, a score-based interval, and an interval based on the profile log-likelihood statistic. We investigate the coverage and average width properties of these intervals via a simulation study. For small Poisson counts and small misclassification rates, the intervals can perform poorly in terms of coverage. The profile log-likelihood confidence interval (CI) is often proved to outperform the other intervals with good coverage and width properties. Lastly, we apply the CIs to a real data set involving traffic accident data that contain misclassified counts.     

A perspective of composite sampling

Composite samples are formed by physically mixing samples. Usually, composite samples are used to reduce the overall cost associated with analytical procedures that must be performed on each sample, but they can also be used to protect the privacy of individuals.

Composite sampling can reduce the cost of identifying individual cases that have a certain trait, such as those with a rare disease or those exceeding pollution-level standards. Not much is lost by applying this method as long as the trait is relatively rare.

Composite sampling can reduce the cost of estimating the mean of some process. When samples are composited, the ability to estimate the variance is lost. In spite of this, the potential savings are so great that composite samples have been used.

Much of this paper deasl with the variance of estimators based on composite sampling when the porportions of hte original samples comprising the composite sample are actually random. Taking repeated samples and measurements on several composite samples complicates the prodcedure, but allows the estimation of between and within variation as well as measurement error.     

R–estimation of normed bivariate density functions

Normed bivariate density funtions were introduced by HOEFFDING (1940/41). In the present paper estimators for normed bivariate ranks and on a FOURIER series expansion in LEGENDRE polynomials. The estimation of normed bivarate density functions under positive dependence is also described     

Mathematical forms of the distribution of the product of two normal variables

This paper finds the mathematical forms of the distribution of the product where x and x follow a bivariate normal distribution In this paper the distribution when PT0 is expressed as an integral, a new, fundamental result. From this general form, six different cases can be distinguished depending on what is known about the parameters and p. The special cases are Aroian $year:1959 and (6) Additionally, we prove that if and as the distribution of the product approaches the Type III distribution. When p=0# Aroian $year:1959 and Aroian and Meeker $year:1977, give tables for various values of 6., 6 . The results in this paper will be used to provide brief tables for p^O in a separate paper     

Balanced and partially balanced incomplete block designs with autocorrelation errors

The paper aims to find variance balanced and variance partially balanced incomplete block designs when observations within blocks are autocorrelated and we call them BIBAC and PBIBAC designs. Orthogonal arrays of type I and type II when used as BIBAC designs have smaller average variance of elementary contrasts of treatment effects compared to the corresponding Balanced Incomplete Block (BIB) designs with homoscedastic, uncorrelated errors. The relative efficiency of BIB designs compared to BIBAC designs depends on the block size k and the autocorrelation ρ and is independent of the number of treatments. Further this relative efficiency increases with increasing k. Partially balanced incomplete block designs with autocorrelated errors are introduced using partially balanced incomplete block designs and orthogonal arrays of type I and type II.