Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

Social identities and political cleavages: the role of political context

Summary. Using a novel method, the paper investigates the influence of social group identities on attitudes and on voting in a variety of political contexts. Examining the major regions of Britain, Canada and the USA, we find considerable national and regional diversity in the nature of social cleavages. For example, social class and race had widely different effects across societies, but within societies their effects on attitudes and on voting were very similar. However, despite that, age and religion had a similar effect on attitudes across societies; the effects on voting varied considerably. The significant within-country differences underline the importance of using region, rather than country, as the unit of analysis. More importantly, these results highlight the role of political context, especially competing cleavages and the structure of party competition, in the establishment of politically relevant social cleavages.     

IT教学中教学方法的探讨

教学方法是实现教学目的所采用的途径和手段。信息产业的高速发展要求教育者不断改进教学方法。针对目前 IT教学的情况 ,本文对教学方法从七个方面进行了探讨 :考试的重点、理论课程与实验课程的安排、教材的更新、学生创新能力的培养、教学活动的方法、与学生的交流、教学模式的多样化     

知识经济与内部审计

从四个方面阐述了知识经济对内部审计的影响 ,论述了在新的经济环境下应采取的审计方法     

两种价值取向与三段式考核模式——思想道德修养课考核方法浅探

思想道德修养课在考核方法上存在两种不同的价值取向 :纯粹考核的价值取向和服务学生的价值取向。而三段式考核模式正是倡导服务学生的价值取向 ,从而达到考核的真正目的     

对降低中国农业生产风险的方式探讨

农业生产领域因其要受气候条件、自然灾害、技术的改变、信息的不完全、国家政策的变动,有着不同于其他行业的特殊风险性,而我国农户大多又是风险规避者,所以,如何降低农业生产中的风险,及如何看待降低风险的方式在中国的实效性问题,成为目前解决“三农”问题关键所在。     

浅谈钢琴教学中教材的选择及授课方法

《巴斯蒂安钢琴基础教程》从整体教学观念出发,强调培养儿童理解音乐、喜欢音乐和创造音乐的综合能力;授课时对孩子心理的重视以及充分调动孩子的直观形象思维。     

信息时代与高校的德育工作

信息时代的到来 ,对高校德育工作产生了深刻的影响。本文在分析高校德育工作在信息时代应发挥的重要作用的基础上 ,进一步阐述了当前高校德育工作开展中应有的几种做法     

市场结构与企业定价研究

本文首先从分析影响企业定价的市场结构入手 ,研究了处于不同市场结构环境中的企业定价战略 ,继而结合案例分析了不同市场结构的企业定价策略和技巧 ,特别是给出了几种实用的定量定价方法。在研究各种定价策略的基础上 ,提出了一个实用有效的定价程序。此外 ,本文还用博弈论的观点重点分析了寡头垄断市场的定价策略     

人才测评方法探讨

针对目前人才测评中存在的问题，首先界定人才概念；其次分析了影响人才素质高低的要素；再次分析了目前人才测评方法的缺陷；最后提出新的人才测评方法——模糊决策测评法，并通过例证分析说明其可行性，为企业选聘人才提供方法支持。