Coverage plots for assessing the variability of estimated contours of a density

Methods for assessing the variability of an estimated contour of a density are discussed. A new method called the coverage plot is proposed. Techniques including sectioning and bootstrap techniques are compared for a particular problem which arises in Monte Carlo simulation approaches to estimating the spatial distribution of risk in the operation of weapons firing ranges. It is found that, for computational reasons, the sectioning procedure outperforms the bootstrap for this problem. The roles of bias and sample size are also seen in the examples shown.     

Simulation for the complex Bingham distribution

The complex Bingham distribution is relevant for the shape analysis of landmark data in two dimensions. In this paper it is shown that the problem of simulating from this distribution reduces to simulation from a truncated multivariate exponential distribution. Several simulation methods are described and their efficiencies are compared.     

Perfect simulation for correlated Poisson random variables conditioned to be positive

In this paper we present a perfect simulation method for obtaining perfect samples from collections of correlated Poisson random variables conditioned to be positive. We show how to use this method to produce a perfect sample from a Boolean model conditioned to cover a set of points: in W.S. Kendall and E. Thönnes (Pattern Recognition 32(9): 1569–1586, 1999), this special case was treated in a more complicated way. The method is applied to several simple examples where exact calculations can be made, so as to check correctness of the program using ²-tests, and some small-scale experiments are carried out to explore the behaviour of the conditioned Boolean model.     

The Statistics of Simulating Chaos

When simulating a dynamical system, the computation is actually of a spatially discretized system, because finite machine arithmetic replaces continuum state space. For chaotic dynamical systems, the discretized simulations often have collapsing effects, to a fixed point or to short cycles. Statistical properties of these phenomena can be modelled with random mappings with an absorbing centre. The model gives results which are very much in line with computational experiments. The effects are discussed with special reference to the family of mappings f (x)=1-|1-2x|,x [0,1],1,<,,<,. Computer experiments show close agreement with predictions of the model.     

利用智能主体分析"时尚"的涌现

时尚作为一种社会现象,是由个别人物的倡导和示范,先在少数人中流行,然后迅速蔓延到社会.多数人出于新奇与从众心理而仿效.对于它的研究有助于人们把握这种社会现象的产生与蔓延过程,深入认识和控制它的发展.由于它的复杂多样性,当前还缺乏对它的定量分析与研究.论文利用基于智能主体的仿真方法,分析了时尚的涌现过程.文中建立了两种模型,用于确定公众能否接受某种时尚的临界值.一种模型基于公众能获取全部信息,另一种则基于个人只能获取邻近信息.     

2000m~3二甲醚球罐的在线检测及有限元分析

首先,使用多通道声发射检测仪PAC SAMOS-48检测在用2000m3二甲醚球形储罐,判定出该设备存在表面裂纹缺陷及其所处位置。然后,采用超声波检测方法,确定了裂纹形状和大小。用Newman—Raju方法研究了表征裂纹缺陷前沿应力场以及位移场的重要参量即应力强度因子,并利用ANSYS建立简化的有限元模型,最终得到裂纹的应力云图和该裂纹前沿应力强度因子值,与工程估算方法得到的数值进行对比,结果表明有限元方法应用于压力容器缺陷的分析是适用的。     

空间面板杜宾模型的Bootstrap Wald-COMFAC检验研究

将共同因子约束(COMFAC)的Wald检验问题引入到空间面板模型中,讨论空间面板杜宾模型与空间面板误差模型的识别问题。蒙特卡洛模拟表明:在有限样本下,基于渐近临界值的Wald检验有着良好的检验功效,但存在着较为严重的尺度扭曲。进一步采用残差Bootstrap方法,在不损失检验功效的前提下,能够显著地降低检验的尺度扭曲。因此,残差Bootstrap方法是更为有效的检验方法。     

Passenger Rail Security,Planning, and Resilience: Application of Network,Plume, and Economic Simulation Models as Decision Support Tools

We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail‐centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail‐centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can prevent events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. Second, we built and used a line source plume model to trace chemical plumes released by a slow‐moving freight train that could impact rail passengers, as well as people in surrounding areas. Third, we crafted an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail‐related hazard events through the year 2020. Each model can work independently of the others. However, used together they help provide a coherent story about what could happen and set the stage for planning that should make rail‐centered transport systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. We highlight the limitations and opportunities presented by using these models individually or in sequence.     

铁路隧道下穿施工引起既有铁路线路变形规律研究

近年来,随着我国铁路交通的大规模建设,新建铁路以隧道的方式下穿既有铁路越来越多的出现且在大量的工程当中且影响越来越严重。结合京石高铁下穿既有石德铁路工程,对下穿隧道暗挖段进行了数值模拟计算,分析研究了隧道下穿施工时对既有铁路路基沉降、轨道沉降、轨道水平偏差及轨向偏差的变形规律,得出了隧道下穿施工对既有铁路线路的影响,对工程的设计和施工具有一定的指导意义。     

HFC网上行信道突发解调器的一种实现

根据CABLE MODEM协议的规定,对比各种已有的解调方式,提出了一种全新的采用差分四相相移键控实现光纤同轴混合网上行信道突发解调的方法。计算机仿真结果证明该方案是可行的,其锁定较快,且抗噪声性能接近于理论值。