The Bubble Game: An Experimental Study of Speculation

We propose a bubble game that involves sequential trading of an asset commonly known to be valueless. Because no trader is ever sure to be last in the market sequence, the game allows for a bubble at the Nash equilibrium when there is no cap on the maximum price. We run experiments both with and without a price cap. Structural estimation of behavioral game theory models suggests that quantal responses and analogy‐based expectations are important drivers of speculation.     

非单调二元非线性算子方程组的迭代求解

利用锥与半序理论和混合单调算子理论 ,讨论 Banach空间中非单调二元非线性算子方程组解的存在性与唯一性 ,并给出收敛于方程组解的迭代序列和误差估计 ,改进和推广了混合单调算子方程和一元算子方程的某些相应结果 .     

The Possibility of Mixed-Mode Surveys in Sociological Studies

Abstract:  This paper explores the possibility of the mixed-mode survey in Japan in order to ensure a wider range of respondents, focusing on the specific type of mixture that is designed to make contact with a respondent by more than one mode and in which a respondent can choose an alternative mode convenient for him or her. The dataset mainly used comes from the survey Study on the Social Composition of the Urban Local Community conducted in Shinagawa Ward of Tokyo in 1999. Three other studies are introduced for additional information. As an indicator of the effectiveness of a mixed-mode design, the response rates of four studies are examined and some improvement in the response rates is observed, compared to that of a single-mode design. Another indicator is the representativeness of a sample and it is evaluated using the data of the Shinagawa survey. When the discrepancy between valid respondents and the population on some demographic characteristics is regarded as representation bias, a mixed-mode design is found to reduce the bias. An inherent problem in a mixed-mode design is "mode effect." In order to control for the mode effect in analyses, the inclusion of an additional variable indicating "mode" in the model is recommended. It is further suggested that the interaction effects between the "mode" and the respondents' traits should be checked, on the assumption that the survey mode affects respondents differently. The attempts are made and discussed in this paper using two variables drawn from the Shinagawa survey.     

大数幂剩余的二进制冗余数Montgomery算法

介绍了大数幂剩余的Montgomery算法,提出了基于二进制冗余数的大数幂剩余Montgomery算法模型。理论分析表明,采用二进制冗余数可减少乘法的进位传播,同时使算法的迭代步数减少17.2%。进一步提高了大数幂剩余的运算速度。     

Cellular Automata‐Based Systematic Risk Analysis Approach for Emergency Response

Emergency response is directly related to the allocation of emergency rescue resources. Efficient emergency response can reduce loss of life and property, limit damage from the primary impact, and minimize damage from derivative impacts. An appropriate risk analysis approach in the event of accidents is one rational way to assist emergency response. In this article, a cellular automata‐based systematic approach for conducting risk analysis in emergency response is presented. Three general rules, i.e., diffusive effect, transporting effect, and dissipative effect, are developed to implement cellular automata transition function. The approach takes multiple social factors such as population density and population sensitivity into consideration and it also considers risk of domino accidents that are increasing due to increasing congestion in industrial complexes of a city and increasing density of human population. In addition, two risk indices, i.e., individual risk and aggregated weighted risk, are proposed to assist decision making for emergency managers during emergency response. Individual risk can be useful to plan evacuation strategies, while aggregated weighted risk can help emergency managers to allocate rescue resources rationally according to the degree of danger in each vulnerable area and optimize emergency response programs.     

法治视野下行政体制改革探索

法治作为一个历史概念，既具有普适性，又具有地方性。对源自西方的法治概念作中国情势解读，它在组成形态上包含私法之治、私法的公法之治、公法之治三部分。法治视野下的行政体制改革的使命，实质上就是要在行政领域实现行政法治；作为互动的另一面，行政体制改革应当从观念变革和法律制度完善两个方面对法治作出回应。     

论孙犁小说中的另类女性形象

孙犁小说历来以塑造恶劣战争环境中乐观健康的青年妇女形象、表现农村劳动妇女内在的心灵美和人情美、并以此来体现特定的时代精神而深受广大读者的喜爱。但深读孙犁的小说,发现其在人物塑造上存在着明显的二元对立现象,美与丑、好与坏泾渭分明;政治与道德、外表与内心简单浅薄,这显然违背了现实主义的创作原则。20世纪50年代初在《风云初记》和《铁木前传》中,在人物俗儿和小满儿的身上,孙犁一改以往二元对立的人物创造模式,使这两个人物比以前创造的任何女性人物都要复杂和丰满,这也使得这两个人物形象成为孙犁小说中的另类。     

于坚诗学观念中的二元对立因素对其诗歌写作的影响及其他

当代中国的诗坛上，云南诗人于坚的诗歌写作与诗学观念都是非常重要而独特的存在，而他的诗歌写作与其诗学观念之间也有着紧密的关系。本文在发掘出于坚诗学中一系列二元对立因素的基础上，分析了于坚二元对立的诗学观念对其诗歌写作的深刻影响，同时也指出了其诗学观念存在着的先天缺陷和危险的偏执倾向，以及其诗学观念难以回避的一种尴尬。     

土地征收的制度性批判与法治模式构建

土地征收问题已成为全面建设小康社会的热点、难点和焦点问题。一系列土地征收侵权性立法制度设计是导致问题的根本症结。解决问题的根本途径是构建符合中国实际的人本化土地征收法治模式制度。     

Individual Differences in Women's Salivary Testosterone and Estradiol Following Sexual Activity in a Nonlaboratory Setting

Objectives: The current study evaluated women's salivary testosterone and estradiol levels before and after exposure to sexual stimuli in a U.S. sex club. Methods: Behavioral data and salivary samples were collected from 19 women during semistructured interviews. Results: Findings demonstrate substantial individual differences in the magnitude and direction of women's hormonal changes following sexual activity. Conclusions: In an age of individualized medicine, these findings highlight the need to better understand factors shaping variation in physiological responses to sexual activity. Findings contribute to a relatively small and contradictory literature on women's hormonal responses to sexual stimuli.