Some large trial properties of minimum likelihood allocation

The method of minimum likelihood allocation (MLA) for allocating subjects to treatments in a clinical trial amounts to checking at each stage which allocation would lead an outside observer to find the least evidence of a relationship between treatment and factors of prognostic significance, assuming that the observer would use a linear exponential model. One advantage of MLA is that results from game theory and likelihood theory can be used to prove it has desirable long run properties. Two of these demonstrated here are (1) ‘consistency’, in the sense that the average likelihood ratio which measures design imbalance tends to zero, and (2) ‘efficiency’ in the sense that the variance estimates of treatment effects will tend to be minimized in the long run.     

Some computational problems related to multinomial trials

Efficient numerical algorithms are developed to evaluate several probabilities related to multinomial trials.In the first part of the paper, the probability distribution of the number of trials until the alternatives j, j = 1,… m, have occurred at least i_j times is computed. The multinomial trials involve the m alternatives l,…, m, with positive probabilities P_l-P_m of occurrence. In the second part, several aspects of a multinomial subset selection problem, discussed by S. S. Gupta and K. Nagel, are investigated.     

陷入圈套与反叛——“费加罗三部曲”的主仆二元对立模式及其文化阐释

17、18世纪的法国正是现代意义上的"人的意识"自我塑造的关键时期,格林布兰特的"含纳"理论指导分析了费加罗三部曲的主仆二元对立模式,指出<塞维勒的理发师>及其之前的法国喜剧,包括莫里哀的剧本,虽然给予仆人一定的光辉,但其喜剧效果却含纳了它的反抗性,事实上是加固了等级秩序;而<费加罗的婚姻>则是一个转折,第一次颠覆了以往的主仆二元对立模式,提出了平等的人的观念,暗示了历史发展潮流.     

数字集成电路测试生成的一种专家系统方法

介绍了两种基于压缩二分决策图(BDD:Binary Dccision Diagram)并由压缩的BDD来进行测试生成的启发性方法,即临界二分树(CBT:Critical Binary Tree)和节点分决函数(ndf:node psrtition function)方法,它们虽然并不一定是最小化BDD,但它们减小了BDD,从而在专家系统环境下得以对大型数字系统进行测试。     

Binary Response Models for Panel Data: Identification and Information

This paper considers a panel data model for predicting a binary outcome. The conditional probability of a positive response is obtained by evaluating a given distribution function (F) at a linear combination of the predictor variables. One of the predictor variables is unobserved. It is a random effect that varies across individuals but is constant over time. The semiparametric aspect is that the conditional distribution of the random effect, given the predictor variables, is unrestricted. This paper has two results. If the support of the observed predictor variables is bounded, then identification is possible only in the logistic case. Even if the support is unbounded, so that (from Manski (1987)) identification holds quite generally, the information bound is zero unless F is logistic. Hence consistent estimation at the standard pn rate is possible only in the logistic case.     

失地农民城市融入水平及影响因素分析——基于武汉市的调查数据

农民失去土地之后,既有别于传统农民,又不同于城市居民,成为一个边缘群体。失地农民城市融入问题是城市化进程中亟需解决的重要问题。由经济状况、社会互动和心理认同三个一级维度和相应二级指标构成的指标体系衡量失地农民城市融入水平,并以武汉市失地农民为例进行实证分析。二元Logistic回归分析表明年龄、性别、受教育年限、是否愿意在城市生活的心理偏好、土地补偿标准、社会保障政策满意度等个体因素和政策因素共同影响失地农民城市融入水平。从经济、社会、心理多维度,从政府、社会和个体多主体出发,促进失地农民城市融入是今后努力方向。     

托比·韦弗:兼具人性魅力与职业精神的教育家

托比·韦弗是英国20世纪60年代的一位教育官员,同时也是一位教育家。他不仅拥有丰富的从政经验和熟练的政治技巧,同时还具备教育家特有的素质,如独特的教育理念、丰富的教育经验和坚持不懈、不轻言放弃的敬业精神,正是这些因素使他成功助推了英国高等教育二元制的实施,成为英国高等教育发展史上的一位重要人物。     

多元视阈下的文化解读——东西《原始坑洞》析解

东西《原始坑洞》摆脱了既定的美学范式和语言秩序,虽然篇幅不长但却于短小中见张力,简赅处寓精辟,呈现出多元化的解读张力,他的文字以冷静而残酷的叙事策略完美地再现了俄狄浦斯情结的神髓、解构了“家国同构”的文化权威与禁忌、在自我放逐与命运抉择的面前选择了人性之善,并在极具反讽的文字中以不动声色的笔触表现出生命消逝与生命延续的历史命题。     

Considering the Concordant Observations in Likelihood Ratio Test for Paired Binary Data

In the formula of the likelihood ratio test on fourfold tables with matched pairs of binary data, only the two parts b and c, which represent changes, are considered; the retained parts a and d, which represent concordant observations, are not included. To develop the test by considering all the four parts and the mixture distribution of likelihood ratio chi-squares, a formula based on the entire sample is proposed. The revised formula is the same as the unrevised one when a + d is zero. The revised test is more valid than the revised McNemar's test in most cases.