中美经贸关系现状及经济发展差距的基本判断

2017年以来,中美两国之间发生了激烈的经贸摩擦,对两国宏观经济和社会福利产生一定的负面影响。中国社会科学院工业经济研究所与《中国经济学人》(China Economist)杂志从中美经贸关系现状、中美经贸摩擦影响、中美两国经济发展差距、美国总统大选等角度分析中国经济学人对中美经贸关系及经济发展差距的认知和判断。调查发现,经济学人认为虽然中美经贸摩擦短时间内难以消除,但中美两国的经济互补性仍很强,贸易增长空间较大,未来发展方向一定是合作与竞争并有。经济学人预判,今后20年中美两国的经济增速分别为4.8%和2.1%,中国将于2034年追平美国经济总量,将于2043年追平美国制造业总体技术水平,将于2072年追平美国人均GDP,实现赶超。     

Distribution of the cross-correlations of squared residuals in ARIMA models

ABSTRACT The distribution of the cross-correlations of squared residuals from Box-Jenkins models is considered in very general conditions, and the asymptotic distribution is derived. A test for a lagged relationship in volatility for economic time series under instantaneous causality is proposed, and its empirical behaviour is studied. An example involving the international stock market's volatility is studied, and an interesting result is observed.     

Analysing partial ranks by using smoothed paired comparison methods: an investigation of value orientation in Europe

Summary. This paper introduces the paired comparison model as a suitable approach for the analysis of partially ranked data. For example, the Inglehart index, collected in international social surveys to examine shifts in post-materialistic values, generates such data on a set of attitude items. However, current analysis methods have failed to account for the complex shifts in individual item values, or to incorporate subject covariates. The paired comparison model is thus developed to allow for covariate subject effects at the individual level, and a reparameterization allows the inclusion of smooth non-linear effects of continuous covariates. The Inglehart index collected in the 1993 International Social Science Programme survey is analysed, and complex non-linear changes of item values with age, level of education and religion are identified. The model proposed provides a powerful tool for social scientists.     

吉林工程技术师范学院毕业生质量跟踪调查报告

通过对吉林工程技术师范学院2001-2003届毕业生的质量进行跟踪调查,并广泛地听取了用人单位和毕业生对学院教育教学质量的评价,提出了端正办学的指导思想,调整专业结构、学科结构、层次结构和布局结构,改进教学内容和教学方法,提高教育教学质量等可行性建议。     

中国政治转型的理论研究:综述与评价

在关于中国政治转型的理论研究中 ,国内外学者的观点是不尽相同的 ,其分歧主要集中于政治转型同市场经济转轨的关系 ,以及政治转型的策略、路径和方向等方面。总体来说 ,产生这些分歧的根本原因是方法论取向的不同使然。而明显的理论预设、方法论移植等则是这些研究所存在的共同问题。     

高校图书馆公共调查方法与指标的研究

图书馆是高校的重要组成部分 ,其管理状况和作用的发挥关系到所在高校全局的发展。为了搞好图书馆建设 ,公共调查是一项经常性、基础性的工作。该文从高校图书馆公共调查的一般指标和方法的角度 ,结合高校图书馆的特点 ,提出了公共调查的一般思路、各业务板块的调查指标和方法设计及图书馆综合调查的要求和结构     

英语专业“专转本”学生英语学习调查及启示

采用问卷调查和语言测试的方法,对英语专业“专转本”学生的英语学习背景和学习状况进行描述性调查与研究,并基于对所得数据的统计和分析,建议教师根据学生的实际水平,在教材的使用、教学内容和教学手段等方面作相应的调整,抓好专科与本科教学的衔接。     

永久随机数在多层次调查中的应用

采用永久随机数法抽样技术抽到的样本具有很好地样本兼容的性质。本文讨论了采用序贯srswor抽样技术和Poisson抽样技术这两种永久随机数法抽样技术时,多层次调查的实现问题,希望能为多层次调查的实现提供一点启示。     

Do bootstrap confidence procedures behave well uniformly in P?

An important statistical problem is to construct a confidence set for some functional T(P) of some unknown probability distribution P. Typically, this involves approximating the sampling distribution J_n(P) of some pivot based on a sample of size n from P. A bootstrap procedure is to estimate J_n(P) by J_n(&Pcirc;_n), where P?_n is the empirical measure based on a sample of size n from P. Typically, one has that J_n(P) and J_n(P?_n) are close in an appropriate sense. Two questions are addressed in this note. Are J_n(P) and J_n(P?_n) uniformly close as P varies as well? If so, do confidence statements about T(P) possess a corresponding uniformity property? In the case T(P) = P, the answer to the first questions is yes; the answer to the second is no. However, bootstrap confidence statements about T(P) can be made uniform over a restricted, though large, class of P. Similar results apply to other functional T(P).     

ESTIMATING DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS FROM SURVEY DATA WITH LIMITED BENCHMARK INFORMATION

The model-based approach to estimation of finite population distribution functions introduced in Chambers & Dunstan (1986) is extended to the case where only summary information is available for the auxiliary size variable. Monte Carlo results indicate that this ‘limited information’ extension is almost as efficient as the ‘full information’ method proposed in the above reference. These results also indicate that the model-based confidence intervals generated by either of these methods have superior coverage properties to more conventional design-based confidence intervals.