网上商场营销平台发展的可行性研究

人们生活水平的提高,生活节奏的加快,传统的消费方式正在潜移默化中改变。互联网走入了寻常的百姓家庭,成为人们的一种工作、休闲、娱乐的方式。从而利用互联网搭建个人的或集团的网上商场营销平台就成为了可能,此间蕴藏的商机可为无限。信息时代的到来,商家传统的销售方式必须要改变,要多样化,网上商场营销平台的出现势在必行。     

刘建封与长白山

刘建封是清末的候补知县,光绪三十四年(1908)受东三省总督徐世昌之命,踏察长白山及三江之源,写出著名的<长白山江岗志略>.安图设治后,任第一任设治委员,在任期间,移民实业;开辟河渠,修建官道;发展邮政,开化边民.受辛亥革命影响,在安图建大同共和国,虽未成功,但其反对封建专制,寻求民主的思想和业绩永垂青史.     

Small Area Estimation via Multivariate Fay–Herriot Models with Latent Spatial Dependence

The Fay–Herriot model is a standard model for direct survey estimators in which the true quantity of interest, the superpopulation mean, is latent and its estimation is improved through the use of auxiliary covariates. In the context of small area estimation, these estimates can be further improved by borrowing strength across spatial regions or by considering multiple outcomes simultaneously. We provide here two formulations to perform small area estimation with Fay–Herriot models that include both multivariate outcomes and latent spatial dependence. We consider two model formulations. In one of these formulations the outcome‐by‐space dependence structure is separable. The other accounts for the cross dependence through the use of a generalized multivariate conditional autoregressive (GMCAR) structure. The GMCAR model is shown, in a state‐level example, to produce smaller mean square prediction errors, relative to equivalent census variables, than the separable model and the state‐of‐the‐art multivariate model with unstructured dependence between outcomes and no spatial dependence. In addition, both the GMCAR and the separable models give smaller mean squared prediction error than the state‐of‐the‐art model when conducting small area estimation on county level data from the American Community Survey.     

论城市语言调查的理论和方法--从郭骏的《关于城市语言调查的几点思考》谈起

在城市化背景下,城市语言调查开始兴起并逐渐成为社会语言学的一个热点。郭骏（2013）对近年来的城市语言调查进行了梳理,并就调查对象、调查内容和调查方法等方面对城市语言调查进行了分析,指出了问题和不足,是城市语言调查研究一篇佳作。我们通过研究发现,郭骏先生提出的部分观点还有待商榷,有些问题还需做进一步的研究。此外,我们认为某些（或部分）城市语言调查所得出的结果并非适用其他城市,更不能类推至全国所有城市,否则会造成研究的偏差与失误。     

论条约解释中的时间因素——《维也纳条约法公约》第31.3条(c)项与时际法

条约解释需要考虑时间因素,然而,《维也纳条约法公约》第31.3条(c)项是否涉及以及是否已解决条约解释中的时际法问题,尚存疑议。该公约第31、32条并未明确规定时际原则,但该原则以间接方式蕴含于第31.3条(c)项中并以第31.1条中对善意的公开规定方式而间接存在。条约解释的"同时性原则"已发展为与"演进解释"原则并举。国际法的演进使得对先前条约的理解和解释通常难免借助于其后相关新条约的生效以及包括嗣后协定、嗣后惯例、准备工作等在内的诸多条约解释因素。并无解决变化了的情况影响条约解释程度之普遍性答案。     

科研院所建成环境主观评价方法研究——以中国林业科学研究院为例

以主观评价方法体系为主导,探索建成环境主观评价方法的适用范围,提高评价方法的理论应用广度. 系统地采用了认知地图调查法、被测对象自由报告法和无结构型问卷法等多个建成环境主观评价方式,对中国林业科学研究院院内建成环境进行了深入的分析和研究. 结果表明院内建筑和环境品质之间存在显著关系,主轴线可视为建筑元素分布的核心区域,办公区是职工环境意象的中心,办公区内楼宇间距、交通便利性、绿化层次对院内环境品质的评价起到重要作用. 选取样本的典型性存在不足,但运用多种评价方法可在一定程度上弥补研究要点的缺失.     

建国前后毛泽东调查研究方法比较分析

毛泽东一生做了大量调查研究,不仅在历史上对中国的革命和建设产生了重大影响,而且从中总结出成熟的理论,对解决当前我国社会的现实问题具有重要指导作用。由于具体的历史环境、社会任务、个人处境等不同,毛泽东在建国前后采取了不同的调查研究方法,产生了不同效果。反思利弊得失,必须坚持群众路线,必须推进党内民主和人民民主建设,必须深化干部人事制度改革,必须加强各级领导专业知识的学习。     

Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies

Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. We provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts’ estimates. We standardize data from 16 elicitations, involving 169 experts, on the 2030 costs of five energy technologies: nuclear, biofuels, bioelectricity, solar, and carbon capture. We estimate determinants of experts’ confidence using survey design, expert characteristics, and public R&D investment levels on which the elicited values are conditional. Our central finding is that when experts respond to elicitations in person (vs. online or mail) they ascribe lower confidence (larger uncertainty) to their estimates, but more optimistic assessments of best‐case (10th percentile) outcomes. The effects of expert affiliation and country of residence vary by technology, but in general: academics and public‐sector experts express lower confidence than private‐sector experts; and E.U. experts are more confident than U.S. experts. Finally, extending previous technology‐specific work, higher R&D spending increases experts’ uncertainty rather than resolves it. We discuss ways in which these findings should be seriously considered in interpreting the results of existing elicitations and in designing new ones.     

Usefulness of robust estimators in sample survey

It Is illustrated that the adaptation of robust estimators, Tiku's (1967, 1978, 1980) modified maximum likelihood estimators for example, in sample survey can lead to considerable improvements In efficiencies in estimating the mean of a finite population (a random sample of Independent observations from a super-popularlon). In this paper, however, we confine our attention to symmetric super-populations     

“90后”大学生思想道德状况调查

为了有针对性地加强和改进高校大学生的思想政治教育工作,在对部分高校＂90后＂大学生进行问卷调查和个人访谈的基础上,就其思想道德状况作出了基本的评价。总体来看,＂90＂后大学生的价值取向是积极、向上,爱国热情高,务实进取,道德面貌呈健康发展态势。但同时也存在着不容忽视的政治思想认识模糊和功利性、自我利益化倾向明显、道德状态不确定和多重化等问题。