Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility

This paper is an applied analysis of the causal structure of linear multi-equational econometric models. Its aim is to identify the kind of relationships linking the endogenous variables of the model, distinguishing between causal links and feedback loops. The investigation is first carried out within a deterministic framework and then moves on to show how the results may change inside a more realistic stochastic context. The causal analysis is then specifically applied to a linear simultaneous equation model explaining fertility rates. The analysis is carried out by means of a specific RATS programming code designed to show the specific nature of the relationships within the model.     

Gibbs sampling for marginal posterior expectations

In earlier work (Gelfand and Smith, 1990 and Gelfand et al, 1990) a sampling based approach using the Gibbs sampler was offered as a means for developing marginal posterior densities for a wide range of Bayesian problems several of which were previously inaccessible. Our purpose here is two-fold. First we flesh out the implementation of this approach for calculation of arbitrary expectations of interest. Secondly we offer comparison with perhaps the most prominent approach for calculating posterior expectations, analytic approximation involving application of the LaPlace method. Several illustrative examples are discussed as well. Clear advantages for the sampling based approach emerge.     

El estudio del estigma desde la atribucion causal

Resumen

El estigma, como marca diferenciadora, elicita una reacción afectiva y emocional, así como una respuesta conductual hacia los portadores de dicha marca. Desde un enfoque atribucionalse asume que lo que origina esas respuestas conductualesy afectivas hacia los estigmatizados, no sólo está determinado por la propia naturaleza del estigma sino, también, por las explicaciones que se atribuyen a la causa del estigma. El objetivo de esta investigación es, por tanto, estudiar el efecto de la información causal sobre el estigma en las respuestas afectivas y en la intención de conductas de los no estigmatizados hacia los estigmatizados. Con este fin se diseña un estudio experimental en el que se analiza las diferencias en las respuestas afectivas y las intenciones de conducta hacia distintos tipos de estigmas. Los resultados muestran que las diferencias en cuanto a respuestas afectivas y conductuales que reciben los grupos estigmatizados, se diluyen ante la presencia de información causal sobre el stigma.     

Bayesian inference of asymmetric stochastic conditional duration models

This paper extends stochastic conditional duration (SCD) models for financial transaction data to allow for correlation between error processes and innovations of observed duration process and latent log duration process. Suitable algorithms of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are developed to fit the resulting SCD models under various distributional assumptions about the innovation of the measurement equation. Unlike the estimation methods commonly used to estimate the SCD models in the literature, we work with the original specification of the model, without subjecting the observation equation to a logarithmic transformation. Results of simulation studies suggest that our proposed models and corresponding estimation methodology perform quite well. We also apply an auxiliary particle filter technique to construct one-step-ahead in-sample and out-of-sample duration forecasts of the fitted models. Applications to the IBM transaction data allow comparison of our models and methods to those existing in the literature.     

Approximate Bayesian Computation for Exponential Random Graph Models for Large Social Networks

We consider the issue of sampling from the posterior distribution of exponential random graph (ERG) models and other statistical models with intractable normalizing constants. Existing methods based on exact sampling are either infeasible or require very long computing time. We study a class of approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling schemes that deal with this issue. We also develop a new Metropolis–Hastings kernel to sample sparse large networks from ERG models. We illustrate the proposed methods on several examples.     

Testing non-oblique hypotheses

This paper considers a likelihood ratio test for testing hypotheses defined by non-oblique closed convex cones, satisfying the so called iteration projection property, in a set of k normal means. We obtain the critical values of the test using the Chi-Bar-Squared distribution. The obtuse cones are introduced as a particular class of cones which are non-oblique with every one of their faces. Examples with the simple tree order cone and the total order cone are given to illustrate the results.     

Distribution theory and inference for polynomial-normal densities

This paper considers a class of densities formed by taking the product of nonnegative polynomials and normal densities. These densities provide a rich class of distributions that can be used in modelling when faced with non-normal characteristics such as skewness and multimodality. In this paper we address inferential and computational issues arising in the practical implementation of this parametric family in the context of the linear model. Exact results are recorded for the conditional analysis of location-scale models and an importance sampling algorithm is developed for the implementation of a conditional analysis for the general linear model when using polynomial-normal distributions for the error.     

Bayesian Estimation of the Regression Model with Autocorrelated Errors Under Contamination

In this article, the Bayesian analysis of the regression model with errors terms generated by a first-order autoregressive model is considered. Our aim is to study the effect of two kinds of contamination of this model via the posterior distribution of the regression parameter.     

Comparison of causal effect estimators under exposure misclassification

Over the past decades, various principles for causal effect estimation have been proposed, all differing in terms of how they adjust for measured confounders: either via traditional regression adjustment, by adjusting for the expected exposure given those confounders (e.g., the propensity score), or by inversely weighting each subject's data by the likelihood of the observed exposure, given those confounders. When the exposure is measured with error, this raises the question whether these different estimation strategies might be differently affected and whether one of them is to be preferred for that reason. In this article, we investigate this by comparing inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) estimators and doubly robust estimators for the exposure effect in linear marginal structural mean models (MSM) with G-estimators, propensity score (PS) adjusted estimators and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators for the exposure effect in linear regression models. We find analytically that these estimators are equally affected when exposure misclassification is independent of the confounders, but not otherwise. Simulation studies reveal similar results for time-varying exposures and when the model of interest includes a logistic link.     

Exact likelihood inference for Laplace distribution based on Type-II censored samples

We develop exact inference for the location and scale parameters of the Laplace (double exponential) distribution based on their maximum likelihood estimators from a Type-II censored sample. Based on some pivotal quantities, exact confidence intervals and tests of hypotheses are constructed. Upon conditioning first on the number of observations that are below the population median, exact distributions of the pivotal quantities are expressed as mixtures of linear combinations and of ratios of linear combinations of standard exponential random variables, which facilitates the computation of quantiles of these pivotal quantities. Tables of quantiles are presented for the complete sample case.