农村金融发展与农业经济增长的实证研究

利用甘肃省金融与经济数据,通过建立误差修正模型,检验与分析甘肃省的农村金融发展对农业经济增长的影响。实证的结果是甘肃省农村金融发展与农业经济增长存在除了银行金融机构发展规模对农业经济增长的正相关关系,其余三大变量农户固定资产投资增长率、银行金融机构以及农村信用社与农业经济增长的负相关关系。     

法的部门划分标准及其引申

法的部门,是指调整特定社会关系的现行法律规范的总称。法的部门的划分标准是法的调整对象,即法所调整的社会关系。由于法的部门的划分标准是法的调整对象,经济法具有特定的调整对象,因此,经济法是一个独立的法的部门。     

信息社会背景下的民事权利客体之解读与重构

信息时代对传统法律带来诸多挑战,民事法律关系也未幸免,其中对民事权利客体进行信息等多维视角的解读与重构即为核心之一.在一系列现实困境中,民事权利客体应从分类标准、内涵与外延的重新界定、突出信息的民法地位等方面对传统进行扬弃,以寻求历久弥新的民事权利客体理论,从而为新时期民事立法和民法功能的实现尽绵薄之力.     

Ageing of a giant: a stochastic population forecast for China, 2006–2060

This paper presents a stochastic population forecast for China with a special emphasis on population ageing. The so-called scaled model for error was used to quantify the uncertainty attached to the population predictions. Data scarcity was a major problem in the specification of the expected error of the population forecast. Therefore, the error structures estimated for European countries were used with some modifications, taking into account the large size and heterogeneity of the Chinese population. The stochastic forecast confirms the expectation of extremely rapid population ageing during the first half of the twenty-first century in China. The old age dependency ratio (OADR) will certainly increase. Simply maintaining the current demographic rates (no international migration) would drive the OADR to 0.42 in 2060, four times the current level. Including expected declines in mortality and net outmigration in the projection would increase the median OADR in 2060 to 0.59, with a 80% prediction interval of [0.47, 0.75]. In particular, the oldest-old population will grow much faster than any other age group. This development has major implications for policy-making in China.

Robust small area estimation

Small area estimation has received considerable attention in recent years because of growing demand for small area statistics. Basic area‐level and unit‐level models have been studied in the literature to obtain empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) estimators of small area means. Although this classical method is useful for estimating the small area means efficiently under normality assumptions, it can be highly influenced by the presence of outliers in the data. In this article, the authors investigate the robustness properties of the classical estimators and propose a resistant method for small area estimation, which is useful for downweighting any influential observations in the data when estimating the model parameters. To estimate the mean squared errors of the robust estimators of small area means, a parametric bootstrap method is adopted here, which is applicable to models with block diagonal covariance structures. Simulations are carried out to study the behaviour of the proposed robust estimators in the presence of outliers, and these estimators are also compared to the EBLUP estimators. Performance of the bootstrap mean squared error estimator is also investigated in the simulation study. The proposed robust method is also applied to some real data to estimate crop areas for counties in Iowa, using farm‐interview data on crop areas and LANDSAT satellite data as auxiliary information. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 381–399; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

New aspects of Bregman divergence in regression and classification with parametric and nonparametric estimation

In statistical learning, regression and classification concern different types of the output variables, and the predictive accuracy is quantified by different loss functions. This article explores new aspects of Bregman divergence (BD), a notion which unifies nearly all of the commonly used loss functions in regression and classification. The authors investigate the duality between BD and its generating function. They further establish, under the framework of BD, asymptotic consistency and normality of parametric and nonparametric regression estimators, derive the lower bound of their asymptotic covariance matrices, and demonstrate the role that parametric and nonparametric regression estimation play in the performance of classification procedures and related machine learning techniques. These theoretical results and new numerical evidence show that the choice of loss function affects estimation procedures, whereas has an asymptotically relatively negligible impact on classification performance. Applications of BD to statistical model building and selection with non‐Gaussian responses are also illustrated. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 119‐139; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

非线性协和模型：理论与方法

 本文系统梳理了十多年来非线性协和理论与方法的研究进展,从非线性协和概念的提出开始,对目前已给出的非线性协和的各种不同定义、具有非线性结构的时间序列的非平稳性检验、非线性协和关系的检验、非线性协和模型的参数与非参数估计方法、门限协和模型、以及非线性误差修正模型的研究状况进行了总结。     

关于计量经济学模型随机扰动项的讨论

 论文指出了计量经济学模型中源生的随机扰动项和衍生的随机误差项之间的区别;讨论或证明了,如果模型存在总体设定误差和变量观测误差,在很多情况下将导致随机误差项对Gauss假设以及正态性假设的违背。     

标记理论在错误评估中的应用——一项实验研究

依据标记理论,以兰州理工大学非英语专业一年级的学生为受试对象,考察他们在口语表达中所犯不同方向错误的数目是否不同;并探究不同方向的错误是否会造成评判的恼怒程度不同。结果证明无标记项先于有标记项的习得,标记理论对第二语言习得的确有重要影响。     

赫哲族传统体育项群分类研究

通过文献资料、考察挖掘、田野实证等方法,对赫哲族传统体育进行了调查。研究结果显示。赫哲族统文化孕育出了以跑跳投、体操、舞蹈、角力、攀爬、游戏、武艺七大类体赫哲族育项群,构成了一种寓意深刻的本民族传统文化艺术,创造了形式灵活多样、内容博大精深的少数民族传统体育,使赫哲族传统体育在本土得到发扬和光大,整体提升其地位,使畲族传统体育项目在现代社会中得以继承和发展。