元末顺帝时期“三农”问题研究

元末顺帝时期,政治腐败,＂三农＂问题突出,主要体现在农民生活困苦、农业生产落后、农村管理混乱、村社组织涣散等方面,腐败不堪的政府施政失败,导致了＂三农＂的相关政策执行不力,给当时的社会造成了严重影响,直接导致了元末经济的崩溃,同时激发了社会阶级矛盾和民族矛盾,加速了元朝的覆灭,还对明初的相关政策措施产生了深远的影响。     

A note on approximate confidence limits for the negative binomial model

Four methods of approximating confidence limits for the single negative binomial parameter, P, are outlined and an empirical study is presented. Some remarks on prediction intervals are also included.     

关于实施非物质文化遗产保护工程的若干思考

非物质文化遗产的衰落是必然的,要做好保护工作,就要发掘其自身的生长要素,从而采取相宜的措施。这些措施主要有提高民众的自觉意识、实现可能的功能转换、政府的重视和支持等几个方面。实施非物质文化遗产保护工程,要防止只做“搭台”的角色、搞“官员工程”、脱离群众、不看对象搞“一刀切”、过度开发和文化造假。     

基于多元词组和数据流聚类的热点话题动态发现

本文主要通过改进的TF-IDF算法和多元词组动态构建来选择特征关键词,并利用CluStream数据流聚类方法,实现文本主题的动态发现.实验表明,该方法可以较好地发现海量文本信息中不断变化的主题信息,从而达到推荐关联主题、动态监测舆情等目的.     

Studying Complexity of Model-based Clustering

Cluster analysis is a popular statistics and computer science technique commonly used in various areas of research. In this article, we investigate factors that can influence clustering performance in the model-based clustering framework. The four factors considered are the level of overlap, number of clusters, number of dimensions, and sample size. Through a comprehensive simulation study, we investigate model-based clustering in different settings. As a measure of clustering performance, we employ three popular classification indices capable of reflecting the degree of agreement in two partitioning vectors, thus making the comparison between the true and estimated classification vectors possible. In addition to studying clustering complexity, the performance of the three classification measures is evaluated.     

Measuring Social Tension from Income Class Segregation

We develop an index that effectively measures the level of social tension generated by income class segregation. We adopt the basic concepts of between-group difference (or alienation) and within-group similarity (or identification) from the income [bi]polarization literature; but we allow for asymmetric degrees of between-group antagonism in the alienation function, and construct a more effective identification function using both the relative degree of within-group clustering and the group size. To facilitate statistical inference, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the proposed measure using results from U-statistics. As the new measure is general enough to include existing income polarization indices as well as the Gini index as special cases, the asymptotic result can be readily applied to these popular indices. Evidence from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data suggests that, while the level of social tension shows an upward trend over the sample period of 1981 to 2005, government’s taxes and transfers have been effective in reducing the level of social tension significantly.     

Some maximum-indifference estimators for the slope of a univariate linear model

As known, the least-squares estimator of the slope of a univariate linear model sets to zero the covariance between the regression residuals and the values of the explanatory variable. To prevent the estimation process from being influenced by outliers, which can be theoretically modelled by a heavy-tailed distribution for the error term, one can substitute covariance with some robust measures of association, for example Kendall's tau in the popular Theil–Sen estimator. In a scarcely known Italian paper, Cifarelli [(1978), ‘La Stima del Coefficiente di Regressione Mediante l'Indice di Cograduazione di Gini’, Rivista di matematica per le scienze economiche e sociali, 1, 7–38. A translation into English is available at http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.4809 and will appear in Decisions in Economics and Finance] shows that a gain of efficiency can be obtained by using Gini's cograduation index instead of Kendall's tau. This paper introduces a new estimator, derived from another association measure recently proposed. Such a measure is strongly related to Gini's cograduation index, as they are both built to vanish in the general framework of indifference. The newly proposed estimator is shown to be unbiased and asymptotically normally distributed. Moreover, all considered estimators are compared via their asymptotic relative efficiency and a small simulation study. Finally, some indications about the performance of the considered estimators in the presence of contaminated normal data are provided.     

曲线分类建模方法及其在GDP预测中的应用

传统方法解决大规模时序曲线的预测建模问题,需要对每条曲线逐一建模,使得建模工作量相当庞大,在实际应用中缺乏可操作性。文章提出一种解决此问题的新方法——曲线分类建模方法。该方法先减少曲线的模型种类,再进行曲线分类和分类建模,在尽可能保留原始信息的前提下较大程度地降低了建模的工作量。文章阐述了该方法的原理和计算过程,并以应用于多地区GDP曲线的预测案例说明该方法的实用性和有效性。     

试论问责制的法制环境与配套措施建设

问责制是对政府的违法行为及其后果都必须和能够追究责任的一种制度,构建合理的问责制,必须从法制环境与配套措施建设的角度入手,通过追究官员确实应承担的责任,促使官员合法、正当地行使手中的权力,不断提高管理水平,使行政机关和公务员真正负起责任。     

生物化学及其实验课程教学的现状及其改革措施——以贵州民族学院为例

分析了当前生物化学教学中存在的问题;研究和探索了生物化学及其实验教学改革的思路和措施.