ON THE USE OF X2 AS A TEST OF INDEPENDENCE IN CONTINGENCY TABLES WITH SMALL CELL EXPECTATIONS

When an r×c contingency table has many cells having very small expectations, the usual χ² approximation to the upper tail of the Pearson χ² goodness-of-fit statistic becomes very conservative. The alternatives considered in this paper are to use either a lognormal approximation, or to scale the usual χ² approximation. The study involves thousands of tables with various sample sizes, and with tables whose sizes range from 2×2 through 2×10×10. Subject to certain restrictions the new scaled χ² approximations are recommended for use with tables having an average cell expectation as small as 0·5.     

Bayesian analysis of contingency tables: a simulation and graphics-based approach

In this paper we present a simulation and graphics-based model checking and model comparison methodology for the Bayesian analysis of contingency tables. We illustrate the approach by testing the hypotheses of independence and symmetry on complete and incomplete simulated tables.     

Minimum chi-square estimator and test for incomplete multidimensional contingency tables

A modified transformed chi-square statistic is defined for testing hypotheses of quasi-independence in the incomplete multi-dimensional contingency table and a simple method for determining degrees of freedom is given. A modified transformed chi-squareestimator of the expected cell frequencies is given in closed form for a general class of exact linear constraints. The co-variance matrix of estimated cell frequencies is derived under the assumption of a conditional Poisson distribution.     

Association Models for Multi-Dimensional Cross-Classifications of Ordinal Variables

Models are formulated for describing associations among ordinal variables in multidimensional tables.Uniform association and uniform interaction models occur as special cases in which equal-interval scores are assigned to levels of the variables.The models described are extensions of ones proposed by Goodman (1979).     

The effect of category choice on the odds ratio and several measures of association in case-control studies

In many case-control studies the risk factors are categorized in order to clarify the analysis and presentation of the data. However, inconsistent categorization of continuous risk factors may make interpretation difficult. This paper attempts to evaluate the effect of the categorization procedure on the odds ratio and several measures of association. Often the risk factor is dichotomized and the data linking the risk factor and the disease is presented in a 2 x 2 table. We show that the odds ratio obtained from the 2x2 table is usually considerably larger than the comparable statistic that would have been obtained had a large number of outpoints been used. Also, if 2 x 2, 2 x 3, or 2 x 4 tables are obtained by using a few outpoints on the risk factor, the measures of association for these tables are usually greater than the measure that would have been obtained had a large number of cntpoints been used. We propose an odds ratio measure that more closely approximates the odds ratio between the continuous risk factor and disease. A corresponding measure of association is also proposed for 2 x 2, 2x3, and 2x4 tables.     

The Maximum Probability 2 × c Contingency Tables and the Maximum Probability Points of the Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution

Abstract

The problem of obtaining the maximum probability 2 × c contingency table with fixed marginal sums, R  = (R ₁, R ₂) and C  = (C ₁, … , C _c ), and row and column independence is equivalent to the problem of obtaining the maximum probability points (mode) of the multivariate hypergeometric distribution MH(R ₁; C ₁, … , C _c ). The most simple and general method for these problems is Joe's (Joe, H. (1988 Joe, H. 1988. Extreme probabilities for contingency tables under row and column independence with application to Fisher's exact test. Commun. Statist. Theory Meth., 17(11): 3677–3685. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Extreme probabilities for contingency tables under row and column independence with application to Fisher's exact test. Commun. Statist. Theory Meth. 17(11):3677–3685.) In this article we study a family of MH's in which a connection relationship is defined between its elements. Based on this family and on a characterization of the mode described in Requena and Martín (Requena, F., Martín, N. (2000 Requena, F. and Martín, N. 2000. Characterization of maximum probability points in the multivariate hypergeometric distribution. Statist. Probab. Lett., 50: 39–47.  [Google Scholar]). Characterization of maximum probability points in the multivariate hypergeometric distribution. Statist. Probab. Lett. 50:39–47.), we develop a new method for the above problems, which is completely general, non recursive, very simple in practice and more efficient than the Joe's method. Also, under weak conditions (which almost always hold), the proposed method provides a simple explicit solution to these problems. In addition, the well-known expression for the mode of a hypergeometric distribution is just a particular case of the method in this article.     

Likelihood Ratio Test Against Stochastic Order in Three Way Contingency Tables

Trend tests in dose-response have been central problems in medicine. The likelihood ratio test is often used to test hypotheses involving a stochastic order. Stratified contingency tables are common in practice. The distribution theory of likelihood ratio test has not been full developed for stratified tables and more than two stochastically ordered distributions. Under c strata of m × r tables, for testing the conditional independence against simple stochastic order alternative, this article introduces a model-free test method and gives the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic, which is a chi-bar-squared distribution. A real data set concerning an ordered stratified table will be used to show the validity of this test method.     

Estimation of actuarial quantities at fractional ages with Kriging

ABSTRACT

Life tables used in life insurance are often calibrated to show the survival function of the age of death distribution at exact integer ages. Actuaries usually make fractional age assumptions (FAAs) when having to value payments that are not restricted to integer ages. Traditional FAAs have the advantage of simplicity but cannot guarantee to capture precisely the real trends of the survival functions and sometimes even result in a non intuitive overall shape of the force of mortality. In fact, an FAA is an interpolation between integer age values which are accepted as given. In this article, we introduce Kriging model, which is widely used as a metamodel for expensive simulations, to fit the survival function at integer ages, and furthermore use the precisely constructed survival function to build the force of mortality and the life expectancy. The experimental results obtained from a simulated life table (Makehamized life table) and two “real” life tables (the Chinese and US life tables) show that these actuarial quantities (survival function, force of mortality, and life expectancy) presented by Kriging model are much more accurate than those presented by commonly-used FAAs: the uniform distribution of death (UDD) assumption, the constant force assumption, and the Balducci assumption.     

Some results on interval estimation for the two-parameter weibull or extreme-value distribution

Two statistics based on simple, closed form estimators are examined for use in interval estimation of reliability and of the location parameter of the extreme-value distribution. Properties of the estimators are studied by Monte Carlo simulation, and procedures for interval estimation and tests of hypotheses for the location parameter and reliability are provided.