基于相关系数的钢材需求量组合预测

近年来我国钢材消费量和产量大幅提升,在1997～2006年的10年里分别增长了308%和367%,虽然同期内国内铁矿石产量也增加了119%,但仍无法满足钢铁工业的需求,对外依存度从28.5%提升到51.8%。在对钢材以及铁矿石消费量的预测实践中,由于不同的预测方法能够提供不同的有用信息,其预测精度往往也存在差异,为了分散预测的风险,文章采用基于相关系数的组合预测方法对我国未来的成品钢材需求量进行预测,并对预测结果进行了深入分析。结果表明,基于相关系数的组合预测模型在预测准确性和适应性方面均能得到一定改善,能很好地对钢材需求量进行科学、有效的预测。     

Correlation coefficient of response variances in compound noise and product array experiments

In robust parameter design, a compound noise experiment has been frequently used for reducing the number of experimental runs compared to a product array experiment. However, the results obtained by the compound noise experiment and the product array experiment are often much different. This paper derives an expression of the correlation coefficient of response variances in the compound noise and the product array experiments, which gives an explanation of that difference.     

基于一致性的动态组合评价方法研究

为了解决多种动态评价方法和动态组合评价方法评价结论非一致性问题,提出基于一致性的动态组合评价方法。确定相容动态评价方法集,应用几种动态组合评价方法对相容动态评价方法集中的单一动态评价结论进行组合评价,如果评价结论非一致,再利用这几种动态组合评价方法对动态组合评价结论进行组合或再组合,直到得到一致性的动态组合排序值为止。应用基于一致性的动态组合评价方法对东部地区区域自主创新能力进行动态组合评价,得到一致性的评价结论,通过实例说明本研究实际应用上的有效性。基于一致性的动态组合评价方法对解决多种动态评价方法评价结论非一致性问题提供了思路,是综合评价方法研究的有益补充,可以利用该方法进行应用研究。     

Creating catalogues of two-level nonregular fractional factorial designs based on the criteria of generalized aberration

We consider the problem of constructing good two-level nonregular fractional factorial designs. The criteria of minimum G and G₂ aberration are used to rank designs. A general design structure is utilized to provide a solution to this practical, yet challenging, problem. With the help of this design structure, we develop an efficient algorithm for obtaining a collection of good designs based on the aforementioned two criteria. Finally, we present some results for designs of 32 and 40 runs obtained from applying this algorithmic approach.     

An optimal selection of two-level regular single arrays for robust parameter experiments

Efforts have been made in the literature to find optimal single arrays which work best for the robust parameter experiments. However, examples show that in many cases the optimal designs obtained by the existing criteria cloud not attain the maximum number of clear interested effects for robust parameter experiments. In this paper, through a similar way of Zhang et al. (2008) (ZLZA, in short), an aliasing pattern to measure the confounding between the interested effects and other effects for the case of robust parameter designs is introduced. A new criterion for selecting optimal two-level regular single arrays is proposed. In the consideration of the criterion, two rank-orders of effects are suggested: one is based on the interest of experimenters and the other is under the usual effect hierarchy principle. The optimal designs are tabulated in the appendix.     

财产犯的事后行为评价问题

关于事后行为的评价,日本有“不可罚”的事后行为论与“共罚”的事后行为论的分歧,德国存在构成要件论与竞合论的对立。殊途同归,都旨在说明事后行为是否具有构成要件该当性,意在解决前行为因为存在实体性的刑罚阻却事由或者诉讼法上的障碍时,能否以事后行为单独起诉、处罚。除事后销赃等个别情形外,通常应肯定事后行为的构成要件该当性,与前行为作为包括的一罪进行评价,因此,共罚的事后行为论及竞合论具有相对的合理性。     

Abstracts of theses,July 1955: Smith College School for Social Work

Abstract

This commentary amplifies the dynamic strategies in Message in a Bottleto consider in working with clients who seek to augment psychotherapy with psychopharmacologic treatment. This commentary also addresses how to evaluate and enhance psychotherapy outcome independent of medications and reviews some of the factors which contribute to positive treatment outcome. In order for clinicians to resist the pervasive colonizing effects of the medical model, this commentary reevaluates some of the claims that medications seem to promise and reinforces data which demonstrate that psychotherapy remains a safe and effective first-line treatment.     

Social Group Work for Young Offenders with Learning Disabilities

ABSTRACT

Despite the high incidence of learning disabilities among young offenders, research suggests that young offenders with learning disabilities do not receive interventions that address their learning disabilities. Group treatment approaches for young offenders typically utilize a cognitive-behavioral orientation. Cognitive behavioral techniques have been found to be effective with the young offender population by targeting their faulty thinking. However, cognitive behavioral treatment is less effective with youth who have academic delays. Individuals with learning disabilities may have difficulties with the cognitive tasks used in cognitive behavioral treatment. This paper describes a treatment group, with illustrations, adapted for young offenders with learning disabilities, combining cognitive-behavioral and mutual-aid principles.     

论《白虎通义》的经学特色

《白虎通义》的经学思想有着鲜明的时代特色。在《白虎通义》的经学思想中,经学政治法典化,帝王圣人化,经学与政治紧密结合在一起,具有浓厚的政治色彩。在《白虎通义》的经学思想中,皇帝组织大臣、儒生们通过白虎观会议辩论古今文经学的异同,调和古今文经学的矛盾,求同存异,统一经学思想。在《白虎通义》的经学思想中,圣人和五经谶纬化,深深地打上了时代的烙印,具有浓重的谶纬神学色彩。     

语言变异与语法化

通过对语言变异和语法化问题的研究,可以得出以下结论：1．语言变异与语法化的关系是整体和部分的关系,前者包含后者;2．应注重语言变异与语法化的结合研究;3．变异的、生分的跨层结构通过“联姻”在词汇化和语法化过程中,借助重新分析等机制而新生了合理的、亲密的固定结构;4．对缩略语应作重新分析;5．立足于语言变异与语法化,运用语用因素、认知因素、社会因素、重新分析等动因与机制,则不难理解“打扫卫生”等经典“语病”。