论国有银行贷款风险防御和规避机制的重新构造

针对当前贷款风险的现实情况，国有银行应该树立正确的现代的贷款风险观。建立起以安全性为核心的内部贷款风险约束机制；同时，国有银行应该为自身创造一个宽松的外部环境，加快商业化改革进程。     

高校举债办学风险分析及防范措施

随着高校招生规模的扩大,在校学生人数不断增加,原有的设施已不能满足目前学校发展的需要,高校为了吸引更多的人才,纷纷向银行大量举债,建设新校区和基础设施,高校贷款资金在改善高校办学条件、满足学生基本需求的同时,随着学校还贷高峰的到来和还贷能力的约束,巨额本息的支付使高校面临严峻的财务风险。因此,现在阶段必需规范高校贷款行为,强化高校举债规模的评估与控制,合理有效的使用银行信贷资金,防范和化解出现的各种风险。     

Exact inference for a simple step-stress model with competing risks for failure from exponential distribution under Type-II censoring

In reliability analysis, accelerated life-testing allows for gradual increment of stress levels on test units during an experiment. In a special class of accelerated life tests known as step-stress tests, the stress levels increase discretely at pre-fixed time points, and this allows the experimenter to obtain information on the parameters of the lifetime distributions more quickly than under normal operating conditions. Moreover, when a test unit fails, there are often more than one fatal cause for the failure, such as mechanical or electrical. In this article, we consider the simple step-stress model under Type-II censoring when the lifetime distributions of the different risk factors are independently exponentially distributed. Under this setup, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the unknown mean parameters of the different causes under the assumption of a cumulative exposure model. The exact distributions of the MLEs of the parameters are then derived through the use of conditional moment generating functions. Using these exact distributions as well as the asymptotic distributions and the parametric bootstrap method, we discuss the construction of confidence intervals for the parameters and assess their performance through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the methods of inference discussed here with an example.     

基层政府社会风险治理流程优化研究

社会风险治理是社会治理的重要组成部分,增强基层政府社会风险治理能力是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的一大关键。随着我国社会的进一步转型,社会风险呈现出虚拟化、网络化、联动化等新态势,它使得基层政府社会风险治理面临着新的挑战。因此,需要从流程优化的角度,对基层政府社会风险治理的机制与方式进行创新,从而提高基层政府社会风险治理的水平。     

扶贫移民适应期生计风险、扶持资源承接与政策优化

扶贫移民兼具扶贫和生态保护功能,有效破解区域生态可持续和社会经济发展矛盾的同时也会出现目标的“反功能”现象。基于适应期扶贫移民生计特征归纳,寻求可能遇到的丧失发展资源、失去公共服务、社会关系网络受损、边缘化等生计损失及致贫风险,针对扶贫移民适应期生计发展扶持政策实施过程中存在的“政策对接有落差、政策衔接有缝隙、政策承接有障碍”等资源承接问题,尝试提出提高移民发展可行能力、注重产业发展、整合发展扶持政策与资源、强化移民专业经济组织建设、健全农村要素市场、促进发展要素整合联动等建议,以促进扶贫移民安稳致富奔小康。     

Expanded renal transplantation: a competing risk model approach

Multi-state models (MSMs) are useful to analyze survival data when, besides the event of main interest, one or more intermediate states of the individual are identified. These models take the several existing states and the possible transitions among them into account. At the same time, covariate effects on each transition intensity may be investigated separately and, therefore, MSMs are more flexible than the standard Cox proportional hazards model. In this work, we use MSMs to investigate the impact of the quality of a transplanted kidney for a group of patients at the Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias. Specifically, we use an illness-death model to study the evolution of patients with kidney disease who received a renal transplant after a dialysis period. The intermediate state is defined as the failure of the received organ, while the terminating state is the death of the patient. In order to increase the potential number of organs available for transplant, the standards of quality for the transplanted kidneys were relaxed (the new criteria are labeled expanded criteria), and these ‘expanded kidneys’ were transplanted in appropriate candidates (older patients, with higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus). Results suggest that the expanded kidneys have a minor effect on survival, while both the kidney mortality and the risk of death increase with the patient's age and the serum creatinine and serum hemoglobin levels.     

Computation of Sharp Bounds on the Expected Value of a Supermodular Function of Risks with Given Marginals

We show that the rearrangement algorithm (RA) introduced in Puccetti and Rüschendorf (2012 Puccetti, G., Rüschendorf, L. (2012). Computation of sharp bounds on the distribution of a function of dependent risks. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 236(7):1833–1840.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to compute distributional bounds can be used also to compute sharp lower and upper bounds on the expected value of a supermodular function of d random variables having fixed marginal distributions. Compared to the analytical methods existing in the literature the algorithm is widely applicable, more easily obtained and gives insight into the dependence structures attaining the bounds.     

经济责任审计风险的成因与防范

经济责任审计是一项政策性很强的工作。从多方面分析经济责任审计风险存在的原因以及防范经济责任审计风险的方式、方法,可以提高审计工作质量,保证经济责任审计报告的公正性、真实性和权威性。     

老龄化背景下政府与企业在养老保险基金风险中的博弈

文章从政府与企业博弈的角度,对当前老龄化背景下中国社会养老保险基金中存在的问题进行探讨。通过对未来中国养老保险制度负担比的预测,比较养老保险成本率和缴费率的关系,分析中国养老保险基金存在的风险。集中描述政府与企业在养老保险基金风险问题上的博弈,并提出规范博弈行为和完善养老保险制度的相应对策。     

论我国保险资金的运用及对策

保险业作为服务于社会生产和生活的第三产业 ,以组织后备资金形式为国民经济的发展提供风险保障。虽然中国保险业资金运用方面存在着保险资金运用渠道较窄、保险公司资产面临较高利率风险、保险资金运用中短期行为严重等问题 ,在很大程度上与当今中国保险市场发展实践和保险业经营运作趋势不适应 ,但可以通过修改《保险法》 ,提高资金运用收益率以明确资金运用方式、范围 ;通过建立专业化资金运用体系 ,提高专业化经营水平和风险监督机制 ;为保险资金运用拓宽渠道 ,提高资金运用的安全性。