Screening Experiments with Many Factors

A new procedure is introduced for conducting screening experiments to find a small number of influential factors from among a large number of factors with negligible effects. It is intended for experiments in which the factors are easily controlled, as in simulation models. It adds observations sequentially after conducting a small initial experiment. The performance of the procedure is investigated using simulation, and evidence is presented that this and other procedures scale as the logarithm of the total number of factors if the number of influential factors is fixed. An investigation of the new procedure for 1–3 active factors shows that it compares favorably with competing methods, particularly when the size of the nonzero effects is 1–2 times the standard deviation. A limited look at the procedure for up to 6 active factors is also presented.     

略论简单性思维与复杂性思维

简单性思维历久而根深蒂固,它强调分割和组分间的线性相互作用。复杂性思维不再局限于理想化和简单化情形,它强调涌现和组分间的非线性相互作用,强调关联性、演化、不稳定性。简单性思维遇到挑战,复杂性思维正在兴起。我们应该选择的是多维性思维的道路。     

浅谈摄影高等教育改革的必然性

摄影高等教育虽然在我国已经经历了几十年的时间,相对国外摄影教育来说仍然还是一个刚刚开始的学步阶段。其间有很多喜人的成就,也走出了自己的路子,但也出现了方方面面困扰发展的问题。这些问题集中反映在教师、课程设置、教材与教学方法以及培养目标等几个方面。因此,摄影高等教育改革已经时不待我。     

复杂科学与质量管理研究

系统科学对质量管理的重大贡献就是促成了全面质量管理的诞生与发展,而复杂科学是系统科学发展的新阶段,它主要是研究复杂性与复杂系统的科学。复杂科学必然对质量管理的发展起着十分重大的影响,本文就此进行一些初步的探讨。     

粗集的动态特性分析及应用

本文对粗集的动态特性进行了研究,为了比较确切的描述粗集的动态变化程度,本文引入了粗集的结构差离度、贴近度及复杂度等概念,给出了结构差离度和贴近度的性质,最后给出应用背景和实例。     

Generalized Steiner Problems and Other Variants

In this paper, we examine combinatorial optimization problems by considering the case where the set N (the ground set of elements) is expressed as a union of a finite number of m nonempty distinct subsets N ₁,...,N _m. The term we use is the generalized Steiner problems coined after the Generalized Traveling Salesman Problem. We have collected a short list of classical combinatorial optimization problems and we have recast each of these problems in this broader framework in an attempt to identify a linkage between these “generalized” problems. In the literature one finds generalized problems such as the Generalized Minimum Spanning Tree (GMST), Generalized Traveling Salesman Problem (GTSP) and Subset Bin-packing (SBP). Casting these problems into the new problem setting has important implications in terms of the time effort required to compute an optimal solution or a “good” solution to a problem. We examine questions like “is the GTSP “harder” than the TSP?” for a number of paradigmatic problems starting with “easy” problems such as the Minimal Spanning Tree, Assignment Problem, Chinese Postman, Two-machine Flow Shop, and followed by “hard” problems such as the Bin-packing, and the TSP.     

A Statistical Analysis of Probabilistic Counting Algorithms

Abstract. This article considers the problem of cardinality estimation in data stream applications. We present a statistical analysis of probabilistic counting algorithms, focusing on two techniques that use pseudo‐random variates to form low‐dimensional data sketches. We apply conventional statistical methods to compare probabilistic algorithms based on storing either selected order statistics, or random projections. We derive estimators of the cardinality in both cases, and show that the maximal‐term estimator is recursively computable and has exponentially decreasing error bounds. Furthermore, we show that the estimators have comparable asymptotic efficiency, and explain this result by demonstrating an unexpected connection between the two approaches.     

A permutation test for randomness with power against smooth variation

A permutation test for the white noise hypothesis is described, offering power against a general class of smooth alternatives. Simulation results show that it performs well, as compared with similar tests available in the literature, in terms of power. An example demonstrates its use in a particular problem in which a test for randomness was sought without any specific alternative.     

对教育运作的定性分析

复杂科学揭示出系统实现自组织的必要条件。将教育活动视为一个系统 ,无论从教育系统内外要素间联系的性质、教育系统的动态结构 ,还是教育系统整体变革的模式来看 ,教育系统的性质依然是简单的控制系统。教育系统的简单性表现在教育功能上 ,就是其社会功能表达的落后性和个体功能的方向性偏离。而要增强和表达教育系统自身的生命活力 ,就需要开放教育系统 ,建立系统内外积极的联系和反馈机制     

Identity Conflicts and Value Pluralism—What Can We Learn from Religious Psychoanalytic Therapists?

Does the way we think about our personal self‐complexity affect how we accept others? Researchers have offered various conceptualizations of how individuals manage their complex identities, while others have identified links between cognitive complexity and acceptance of outgroups. This paper integrates the two bodies of work by positing a route by which personal identity conflicts may lead to cognitive and cultural pluralism. For individuals committed to multiple identities perceived as conflicting, the intra‐psychic experience of value conflicts may lead to a recognition of self‐complexity, which is then transposed from the personal domain to the social one and expressed as a pluralistic attitude towards others. This argument find support in a study of Israeli Jewish Orthodox psychoanalytic therapists who belong to what they perceive as non‐pluralistic religious groups, yet express value pluralism, which they attribute to their complex identities. One of the educational implications of this study is that facilitating engagement with internal complexity, multiple identities and personal value conflicts may promote pluralistic thinking for individuals in religious societies.